**FINAL PROJECTION:** Obama wins by **76**–**64** million votes **367**–**171** EV **53**–**45**% vote share margin.The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC:

**CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI**The

**2008 Election Model** (

**EM**) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by

**367**–

**171**. The final projected vote share is Obama-

**53.1** McCain-

**44.9%** Other-

**2.0%**. The

**state** poll aggregate vote share matched the

**national** average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

In May, the

**2008 Election Calculator** (

**EC**) projected that Obama would win the

**True Vote** by

**71–59m** (

**54.1**–

**44.7%**).

For the

**2008** **EC** to

__match__ the

**EM**, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters

**had to be accurate**.

The

**EC** used

**12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares** to calculate the projections.

In other words, the 2008

**EC** and

**EM** confirmed that

**Kerry won a landslide** (see below).

•••

The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)

In May 2008, the

**2008 Election Calculator** projected that Obama would win the True Vote by

**71–59m** (54.1–44.7%).

Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (**EC**) **True Vote** and the 2008 Election Model (**EM**) **Projections**

On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

The

**12:22am 2004 **__Preliminary__ NEP vote shares (

**13,047 random sample**,

**1% MoE**...link below) were input to the

**2008** **EC**.

In the

**2008** **EM**, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match

__2004 EC__ assumptions.

The resulting

**2008** **EC** calculated True Vote projection closely matched the

__independent__ **2008** **EM** Polls-projection (to within 0.2%).

Therefore, the

__2004 EC__ **vote shares** and

**weighting mix** are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.

The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.

The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.

Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by

**78.3**–

**63.8** million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.

Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other

**2008 Election Calculator** (

**EC**)

2004-Voters Return

in 2008 — Estimate

**In 2004**Kerry

Bush

Other

**125.7****Turnout '08**

DNV

**95%**

95%

95%

113.7

Votes

29.9

60.6

51.6

1.6

**143.7**

Mix

20.8%

42.2%

35.9%

1.1%

100.0%

**Obama**

57%

91%

10%

64%

**54.5%**

**McCain**

41%

8%

90%

17%

**44.4%**

**Other**

2%

1%

0%

19%

**1.1%**

75% UVA

143.7

78.3

63.8

1.5

2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (**EM**)

54.3%

44.7%

1.0%

143.7

78.0

64.3

1.4

2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (**EM**)

53.1%

44.9%

2.0%

143.7

75.9

64.2

2.9

•••

*Full text with State Model: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... *