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11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1%

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:15 PM
Original message
11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1%
Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 01:07 PM by tiptoe



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: November 3

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    11/03/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     51.3 (53.94) 
     43.8 (46.06) 
     51.1 (53.79) 
     43.9 (46.21) 
    54.28
    45.7
    54.14
    45.9
    365.3
    172.7


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    Zogby
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen

    ABC/WP
    Battleground
    NBC/WSJ
    CNN
    Pew

    CBS
    Marist
    FOX News
    Ipsos
    Pew

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    11/02
    11/02
    11/02
    11/02
    11/02

    11/02
    10/30
    11/02
    11/01
    11/01

    10/31
    10/29
    10/29
    10/27
    10/26

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2847 RV
    1201 LV
    882 LV
    3000 LV

    2446 RV
    1000 LV
    1011 LV
    1017 LV
    2587 RV

    1005 LV
    543 LV
    924 LV
    831 LV
    1325 RV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.84%
    2.83%
    3.30%
    1.79%

    1.98%
    3.10%
    3.08%
    3.07%
    1.93%

    3.09%
    4.21%
    3.22%
    3.40%
    2.69%
    Obama
                
    51
    52
    51
    50
    51

    54
    49
    51
    51
    49

    54
    50
    47
    50
    52

    51.75
    50.45
    50.80
    54.20
    McCain
                
    44
    41
    44
    45
    46

    42
    45
    43
    43
    42

    41
    43
    44
    45
    36

    40.25
    43.91
    42.93
    45.80
    Other
                
    5
    7
    5
    5
    3

    4
    6
    6
    6
    9

    5
    7
    9
    5
    12

    8.00
    5.64
    6.27
    0.00
    Spread
                
    7
    11
    7
    5
    5

    12
    4
    8
    8
    7

    13
    7
    3
    5
    16

    11.50
    6.55
    7.87
    8.39
     
    Obama
                
    51.1
    51.1
    51.0
    50.7
    51.3

    51.1
    50.1
    50.3
    50.4
    50.7

    51.1
    50.4
    50.9
    51.3
    51.6
    McCain
                
    43.9
    43.7
    44.0
    43.7
    43.1

    42.7
    43.0
    43.0
    42.0
    41.7

    41.3
    41.1
    40.6
    40.3
    39.9
    Spread
                
    7.3
    7.4
    7.0
    7.0
    8.1

    8.4
    7.1
    7.3
    8.4
    9.0

    9.9
    9.3
    10.3
    11.0
    11.7
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.8
    99.2

    100.0
    96.6
    100.0
    99.9
    100.0

    99.9
    92.6
    98.6
    100.0
    100.0
     
    Obama
                
    54.1
    54.2
    54.0
    54.1
    54.6

    54.8
    54.3
    54.3
    55.0
    55.3

    55.7
    55.5
    56.0
    56.3
    56.7
    McCain
                
    45.9
    45.8
    46.0
    45.9
    45.4

    45.2
    45.7
    45.7
    45.0
    44.7

    44.3
    44.5
    44.0
    43.7
    43.3
    Spread
                
    8.3
    8.5
    8.0
    8.1
    9.3

    9.7
    8.5
    8.6
    9.9
    10.5

    11.4
    11.0
    12.0
    12.7
    13.4
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.7

    100.0
    99.1
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    99.0
    99.6
    100.0
    100.0
     

     
    FINAL PROJECTION:  Obama wins by     7664 million votes     367171 EV     5345% vote share margin.

    The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC:

    CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI

    The 2008 Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by 367171. The final projected vote share is Obama-53.1 McCain-44.9% Other-2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

    In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 7159m  (54.144.7%).

    For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters had to be accurate.
    The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.
    In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).


     

    The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)

    In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 7159m (54.144.7%).

    Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections
     
    On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

    The 12:22am 2004 Preliminary NEP vote shares (13,047 random sample, 1% MoE...link below) were input to the 2008 EC.
    In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.
    The resulting 2008 EC calculated True Vote projection closely matched the independent 2008 EM Polls-projection (to within 0.2%).
    Therefore, the 2004 EC vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.
    The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.
    The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.
    Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.363.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.
    Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other


    2008 Election Calculator (EC)

    2004-Voters  Return
    in 2008   Estimate
     
    True 'Voted 2004'
    Mix  Calculated
    12:22am NEP Shares ('13047')

    In 2004

    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    125.7
    Turnout '08
    DNV
    95%
    95%
    95%

    113.7
     
    Votes
    29.9
    60.6
    51.6
    1.6

    143.7
    Mix
    20.8%
    42.2%
    35.9%
    1.1%

    100.0%
    Obama
    57%
    91%
    10%
    64%

    54.5%
    McCain
    41%
    8%
    90%
    17%

    44.4%
    Other
    2%
    1%
    0%
    19%

    1.1%


    75% UVA
    143.7
    78.3
    63.8
    1.5

     

     

    2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM)
    54.3%
    44.7%
    1.0%

     
    143.7
    78.0
    64.3
    1.4

     

    2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM)
    53.1%
    44.9%
    2.0%

     
    143.7
    75.9
    64.2
    2.9






    Full text with State Model: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...





     

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    bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:20 PM
    Response to Original message
    1. K&R.
    Wherever he is, I know TIA is enjoying this day.

    :toast:, TIA.
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