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10/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA):...OBAMA 381 EV!...76-62m!...Pew RV 52-36!...AZ, MT, GA, ND...in play! -x

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 01:18 AM
Original message
10/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA):...OBAMA 381 EV!...76-62m!...Pew RV 52-36!...AZ, MT, GA, ND...in play! -x



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: October 28

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    10/28/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     51.60 (54.84) 
     42.50 (45.16) 
     50.20 (53.18) 
     44.20 (46.82) 
    55.2
    44.8
    53.5
    46.5
    379.5
    158.5


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    Zogby
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen

    ABC/WP
    Battleground
    Pew Research
    Newsweek
    CBS/NYT

    FOX News
    Pew Resrch
    Ipsos
    NBC/WSJ
    CNN

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    10/27
    10/27
    10/27
    10/27
    10/27

    10/26
    10/27
    10/26
    10/23
    10/22

    10/21
    10/19
    10/20
    10/20
    10/19

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2794 RV
    1202 LV
    878 LV
    3000 LV

    1321 LV
    1000 LV
    1325 RV
    882 LV
    771 LV

    936 LV
    2382 LV
    773 LV
    1159 RV
    764 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.85%
    2.83%
    3.31%
    1.79%

    2.70%
    3.10%
    2.69%
    3.30%
    3.53%

    3.20%
    2.01%
    3.52%
    2.88%
    3.55%
    Obama
                
    50.4
    50
    49
    50
    51

    52
    49
    52
    53
    52

    49
    53
    50
    52
    51

    51.33
    50.78
    50.89
    54.60
    McCain
                
    42.7
    43
    45
    42
    46

    45
    46
    36
    41
    39

    40
    39
    42
    42
    46

    40.33
    42.81
    42.31
    45.40
    Other
                
    6.9
    7
    6
    8
    3

    3
    5
    12
    6
    9

    11
    8
    8
    6
    3

    8.33
    6.41
    6.79
    0.00
    Spread
                
    7.7
    7
    4
    8
    5

    7
    3
    16
    12
    13

    9
    14
    8
    10
    5

    11.00
    7.97
    8.58
    9.21
     
    Obama
                
    50.2
    50.4
    50.9
    51.3
    51.1

    51.4
    51.1
    51.6
    51.4
    51.0

    50.4
    51.0
    50.6
    51.0
    51.0
    McCain
                
    44.2
    43.3
    43.0
    42.1
    41.9

    40.9
    40.4
    39.9
    41.3
    41.1

    41.1
    41.0
    41.3
    41.4
    41.3
    Spread
                
    6.0
    7.1
    7.9
    9.1
    9.3

    10.6
    10.7
    11.7
    10.1
    9.9

    9.3
    10.0
    9.3
    9.6
    9.7
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    99.8
    99.9
    99.9

    100.0
    99.9
    98.7
    98.0
    95.7
     
    Obama
                
    53.5
    54.2
    54.5
    55.2
    55.3

    56.1
    56.2
    56.7
    55.8
    55.7

    55.5
    55.8
    55.5
    55.5
    55.6
    McCain
                
    46.5
    45.8
    45.5
    44.8
    44.7

    43.9
    43.8
    43.3
    44.2
    44.3

    44.5
    44.2
    44.5
    44.5
    44.4
    Spread
                
    7.1
    8.4
    9.1
    10.5
    10.7

    12.1
    12.4
    13.4
    11.6
    11.4

    11.0
    11.6
    10.9
    11.1
    11.3
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    99.9
    99.8
    99.3
     

     
    The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the True Vote by 7662m. For McCain to win, he needs approximately 10% of Obamas votes switched to his column (see the table below).

    Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4862 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simuations, so there is a 97.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He has a 58% probability of exceeding 380 EV (he won 2902 trials with more than 380 EV).

    The BAD news: The Gallup LV poll has Obamas lead down to 2 points, 4947%; the RV poll has him ahead by 5043%. The AP poll (4342) generated lots of angst and had very implausible internals.

    The GOOD news: the Pew RV poll has Obama up by a whopping 16 points (5236%) and thats BEFORE undecided voters are allocated.  Pew is a well-known polling firm with a long history. One week ago, the Pew LV poll also indicated a commanding Obama 5339% lead. The polls portend a MAJOR True Vote landslide. Regarding the AP poll, the two-party share was just 85%. If we allocate 2/3 of the other 15% to Obama, we get a 6% spread (5347%).

    The undecided vote allocation is based the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bushs third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). In fact, the Election Model (EM) base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters would typically assign 7090%, depending on the incumbents approval rating.

    The most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread (see below) are now FL, IN, NC, OH, MO, AZ and GA. The latest polls indicate that these states are a virtual lock: PA, MI, WI, MN, IA. With one week to go, the latest polls indicate that Obama is even within striking distance of winning these red states: Arizona (10 EV), Georgia (15), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).

    National polls are current; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. But over the past few days, Obamas projected state aggregate 2-party vote (55.2%) has exceeded the national average (53.5%). At the same time, Obamas expected EV keeps rising. View the Electoral vote and projected vote share trend. Battleground state polls are now more frequent then they were a month ago, therefore the state poll aggregate should more closely match the national. View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    The EM calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls. It projects five vote share scenarios (5000 election trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations (UVA) from 4090%. Obama won the base case scenario (60%) with an average 379.3 EV. The median and mode were both 381. Even in the worst-case scenario (40%), he won all 5000 trials.

    The Monte Carlo mean EV (379.31) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (379.49) based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the long run). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

    Polling data source:
    Electoral-vote.com
    RealClearPolitics.com


    Full Update with State Model:
    Obama Projected Vote vs Kerry Projected Vote http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



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    Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 01:23 AM
    Response to Original message
    1. Too bad this pollster seems a bit too biased in Obama's favor...
    ...but hey, what thinking person isn't?

    Good stuff.
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    Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 01:27 AM
    Response to Original message
    2. You deserve your own special forum for this analysis.
    If there's more funny business this election, it would be great to have your election analysis in one location.


    I sure miss TIA... :-)
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    Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 03:28 AM
    Response to Original message
    3. This analysis presumes a "fraud free election" and predicts a "true vote landslide."
    Keep those caveats in mind. This election is already fraud-ridden--with tens of thousands of registered voters unfairly purged, in Georgia, Ohio and other places. Further, it will be tabulated, everywhere, by 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

    This gives the three major election theft corporations--Diebold ("Premier"), ES&S and Sequoia--all with close ties to the Republican Party, one of them (Diebold) whose CEO was a Bush-Cheney campaign chair, and another, its spinoff corp, ES&S, with nutball extremist 'christian' ties--enormous power which can be used brutally, to outright steal any election in the country, including the presidential election, or subtly, say to shape and mold Congress to serve the rightwing agenda (done quite successfully in '06).

    Here's my prediction: Obama is so popular, and the people of this country are so overwhelmingly fed up and hungry for change, that the Corpo/Fascist dragons who rule over us will not risk denying him victory. If they do, they will lose their election theft machines for future purposes (and don't kid yourself that they don't have long term plans). So they will let him win, is my guess, but they significantly shave his mandate (the pre-written narrative for this is already in play) as part of a strategy to limit the "damage" that a true representative of the people in the White House might do to Corpo/Fascist power. They also will VERY LIKELY inflict him with a Puke/'Blue Dog'-infested Congress (like the present one). They have already tied his hands--as to any kind of "New Deal" for the American people--by the financial 9/11 that the Bushwhacks just pulled off. I think they have in mind a short and tumultuous Obama term in office, with the Corpo/Fascist 'news' monopolies blaming Obama and "the liberals" for all the troubles that we may see, and they will then install someone possibly worse than Bush and Cheney in 2012.

    The latter part of the above scenario is NOT a prediction, but rather what I see as the possible game plan of those who are looting us, and who now have near 100% non-transparent control of our voting system. I think they WILL shave Obama's mandate, and WILL produce a retro-Congress, and they certainly have brought the mighty twin towers of the U.S. economy--banking and trade--straight down in piles of rubble and dust. But what happens NEXT is up to us, not them. And here's what we must do to prevent their game plan from playing out...

    1. First and foremost, we must--WE MUST!--restore transparent vote counting!

    2. We must also undo all the purging of the voter rolls, and re-enfranchise all of our citizens; and work hard on other aspects of our democratic institutions, for instance, the news media.

    3. And we must pull together! Germany fell prey to Hitler in the 1930s due to the inability of the center-left to govern a country suffering catastrophic financial ruin. We are a far different country than Germany was; still, the parallels are haunting. This means that we MUST avoid the fractiousness that is so tempting to leftists. We must realize how much danger this country is in, and how much danger our political leaders are in, after eight years of extremely damaging rule by this fascist coup. Obama is not a magician. And his leadership will be no better, and no worse, than our citizenship. PULL TOGETHER!

    This ship of state is on the shoals. Its mast is broken and its sails are ripped, and it is taking on water. This not a time to be complaining about how much rum the captain permits the crew with their dinner, or the long watches, or the misery of life at sea. When the ship is going down, you don't argue with the new captain, unless you have something relevant to say about keeping the ship afloat and avoiding further dangers. It's a time for patching the sails and hewing a new mast and hoisting it up. It's a time to bail water. It's a time for the practical matter of REBUILDING our democracy, so that this country doesn't end in total wreckage. BE PRACTICAL--and pull together. If you don't like what's happening, go down to your local county registrar and take all your neighbors with you, and demand vote counting that everyone can see and understand. Or start a radio station. Or do SOMETHING that will create better conditions for true representatives of the people to operate in. Obama can only do what we empower him to do. He is otherwise as trapped as anybody by the hurricanes that the Corporate Rulers are already sending his way.

    ----------

    Thank you, Tiptoe, for posting this analysis. It provides us with a good gage for judging whether or not I am right about a fraudulently shaved mandate. The outrage that we must face--and deal with--is that we won't know, and can't know, and have been deliberately denied the ability to know, what the real voting numbers are, and have to go to inferential evidence to guess what these 'TRADE SECRET' code machines are doing. TIA is brilliant at this task.
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