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10/23 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 378EV (=MEDIAN 5K MONTE CARLO TRIALS); 98% PROB EV >350; 80% >370!

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-23-08 09:36 PM
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10/23 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 378EV (=MEDIAN 5K MONTE CARLO TRIALS); 98% PROB EV >350; 80% >370!



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: October 23

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    10/23/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     50.93 (54.05) 
     43.30 (45.95) 
     51.00 (54.26) 
     43.00 (45.74) 
    54.39
    45.61
    54.60
    45.40
    374.5
    163.5


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    ABC/WP
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen

    Zogby
    Battleground
    FOX News
    Pew Resrch
    Ipsos

    NBC/WSJ
    CNN
    Pew Resrch
    Ipsos
    CBS/NYT

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    10/22
    10/22
    10/21
    10/22
    10/22

    10/22
    10/22
    10/21
    10/19
    10/20

    10/20
    10/19
    10/14
    10/13
    10/13

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2788 RV
    1330 LV
    769 LV
    3000 LV

    1211 LV
    1000 LV
    936 LV
    2382 LV
    773 LV

    1159 RV
    764 LV
    1191 LV
    1036 RV
    699 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.86%
    2.69%
    3.53%
    1.79%

    2.82%
    3.10%
    3.52%
    2.88%
    3.55%

    2.84%
    3.04%
    3.71%
    3.05%
    3.54%
    Obama
                
    51
    50
    54
    48
    52

    52
    49
    49
    53
    50

    52
    51
    50
    48
    53

    50.00
    51.00
    50.80
    54.86
    McCain
                
    41
    43
    43
    43
    45

    40
    45
    40
    39
    42

    42
    46
    40
    39
    39

    41.33
    41.92
    41.80
    45.14
    Other
                
    8
    7
    3
    9
    3

    8
    6
    11
    8
    8

    6
    3
    10
    13
    8

    8.67
    7.08
    7.40
    0.00
    Spread
                
    10
    7
    11
    5
    7

    12
    4
    9
    14
    8

    10
    5
    10
    9
    14

    8.67
    9.08
    9.00
    9.72
     
    Obama
                
    51.0
    51.2
    51.0
    50.0
    51.0

    50.6
    50.6
    51.0
    51.2
    50.2

    50.8
    50.4
    50.8
    51.2
    50.8
    McCain
                
    43.0
    42.8
    43.2
    42.6
    41.8

    41.2
    41.6
    41.8
    41.8
    41.8

    41.2
    41.0
    40.4
    40.6
    40.6
    Spread
                
    8.0
    8.4
    7.8
    7.4
    9.2

    9.4
    9.0
    9.2
    9.4
    8.4

    9.6
    9.4
    10.4
    10.6
    10.2
    Win Prob
                   
    99.5
    99.5
    99.6
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    99.5
    100.0
    99.2

    98.7
    96.1
    92.5
    86.8
    95.1
     
    Obama
                
    54.6
    54.8
    54.5
    54.4
    55.3

    55.5
    55.3
    55.3
    55.4
    55.0

    55.6
    55.6
    56.1
    56.1
    56.0
    McCain
                
    45.4
    45.2
    45.5
    45.6
    44.7

    44.5
    44.7
    44.7
    44.6
    45.0

    44.4
    44.4
    43.9
    43.9
    44.0
    Spread
                
    9.2
    9.6
    9.0
    8.9
    10.6

    11.0
    10.6
    10.6
    10.8
    10.0

    11.2
    11.1
    12.2
    12.2
    11.9
    Win Prob
                   
    99.9
    99.9
    99.9
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.9

    99.7
    99.1
    98.0
    95.3
    99.2
     

     
    Over the past few days, there has been a sharp rise in Obamas state and national poll averages. Is it due to Powells endorsement? Palins 175k wardrobe? The economy? The stock market? Calling Obama a socialist palling around with terrorists? Exposing Joe the unlicensed plumber? Job layoffs? Is it the heavy Democratic new voter registration and powerful Obama GOTV campaign? Is it the rampant GOP voter purge and registration fraud? What about returning Gore and Kerry voters royally pissed about the stolen elections? Is it a rebellion against the complicit media and politicians who have avoided discussing election fraud since the SCOTUS 2000 coup? Or is it a combination of all the above?

    The Election Model (EM) calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls and projects five vote share scenarios (5000 trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations from 4090%. Even in the worst-case scenario in which Obama captures just 40% of the undecided vote, he won all 5000 election trials with an expected (average) 359.3 electoral votes. He won the base case (60% UVA) scenario with an average 374.7 EV. The median EV was 378.

    Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4908 election trials, so there is a 98.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He exceeded 370 EV in 4007 trials (80.1%).

    Note how the Monte Carlo mean EV (374.51) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (374.67), based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): It took 5000 simulated election trials for the MEAN EV of 5000 to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV. In other words, 5000 trials are more than sufficient; we are in the long run. A meta-analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combinations is overkill, Princeton!

    The EM assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and that a fraud-free election is held today.

    National polls reflect current vote preferences; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. Obamas projected aggregate 2-party vote (54.39%) is approaching the national average (54.60%). View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    The five most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are FL (32.0), CO (7.1), IN (11.1), NC (14.8) and MO (13.0). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states as of today (approximately 76% of available funds).

    For McCain to win, based on current projections, he needs a minimum of 8.3% (1 in 12) of Obamas votes switched to his column.



    Full post w State Model and more: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...













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