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10/14 Election Model (TIA): Obama 372EV (51.2-44.8%, 74-64m); Elec'n Calculator:(55.7-40.4%, 80-58m)

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 01:53 AM
Original message
10/14 Election Model (TIA): Obama 372EV (51.2-44.8%, 74-64m); Elec'n Calculator:(55.7-40.4%, 80-58m)
Edited on Thu Oct-16-08 02:37 AM by tiptoe

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: October 14

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    10/14/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     50.09 (53.24) 
     43.99 (46.76) 
     50.00 (54.11) 
     42.40 (45.89) 
    53.64
    46.36
    54.56
    45.44
    367
    171


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen
    Zogby

    Battleground
    ABC/WP
    Newsweek
    FOX News
    Ipsos

    NBC/WSJ
    CBS/NYT
    CNN
    Marist
    AP/GfK

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    10/13
    10/12
    10/12
    10/13
    10/13

    10/12
    10/11
    10/09
    10/09
    10/06

    10/05
    10/05
    10/05
    09/30
    09/30

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2700 RV
    838 LV
    3000 LV
    1208 LV

    814 LV
    766 LV
    1035 RV
    900 RV
    858 RV

    658 RV
    616 LV
    694 LV
    943 LV
    808 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.89%
    3.39%
    1.79%
    2.82%

    3.43%
    3.54%
    3.05%
    3.27%
    3.35%

    3.82%
    3.95%
    3.72%
    3.19%
    3.45%
    Obama
                
    52
    51
    48
    50
    49

    51
    53
    52
    46
    47

    49
    48
    53
    49
    48

    49
    50.1
    49.7
    54.0
    McCain
                
    41
    41
    42
    45
    43

    43
    43
    41
    39
    40

    43
    45
    45
    44
    41

    40.8
    43.2
    42.4
    46.0
    Other
                
    7
    8
    10
    5
    8

    6
    4
    7
    15
    13

    8
    7
    2
    7
    11

    10.2
    6.7
    7.9
    0.0
    Spread
                
    11
    10
    6
    5
    6

    8
    10
    11
    7
    7

    6
    3
    8
    5
    7

    8.2
    6.9
    7.3
    8.0
     
    Obama
                
    50.0
    49.8
    50.2
    51.0
    50.2

    49.8
    49.4
    48.4
    48.6
    49.2

    49.4
    49.6
    49.6
    49.0
    49.0
    McCain
                
    42.4
    42.8
    43.2
    43.0
    41.8

    41.2
    41.2
    41.6
    42.4
    43.4

    43.6
    43.2
    43.2
    42.8
    42.6
    Spread
                
    7.6
    7.0
    7.0
    8.0
    8.4

    8.6
    8.2
    6.8
    6.2
    5.8

    5.8
    6.4
    6.4
    6.2
    6.4
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    98.7

    98.0
    97.1
    98.5
    98.9
    98.9

    99.0
    99.4
    98.3
    100.0
    100.0
     
    Obama
                
    54.6
    54.2
    54.2
    54.6
    55.0

    55.2
    55.0
    54.4
    54.0
    53.6

    53.6
    53.9
    53.9
    53.9
    54.0
    McCain
                
    45.4
    45.8
    45.8
    45.4
    45.0

    44.8
    45.0
    45.6
    46.0
    46.4

    46.4
    46.1
    46.1
    46.1
    46.0
    Spread
                
    9.1
    8.5
    8.3
    9.2
    10.0

    10.4
    10.1
    8.8
    8.0
    7.3

    7.2
    7.8
    7.8
    7.8
    8.1
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.8

    99.5
    99.1
    99.8
    99.8
    99.8

    99.8
    100.0
    99.9
    100.0
    100.0
     

     
    The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all of the battleground states. Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials with an expected (average) 367171 electoral vote margin. His median EV was 371; the mode (most frequent trial result) was 372. He has a 99% probability of winning at least 330 electoral votes.

    View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    National polls are current; state poll lag by a week or more. Obamas projected aggregate state 2-party vote (53.64%) is approaching the national average (54.56%) as the time lag between the polls decreases.

    The three most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are OH (20.9), NC (20.90) and FL (14.3). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states. The percentages change when the polls are updated.

    For McCain to win, he needs to switch at least 8% (1 in 12) of Obamas votes to his column.


    National Model
    Tracking Poll Average
    Projected Vote (2-party)
    Actual Projected

    State Model
    Aggregate Poll Share
    Projected Vote (2-party)
    Actual Projected

    Electoral Vote
    Poll
    Projected
    Expected value
    Obama
    50.00
    54.56
    52.16


    50.09
    53.64
    51.24


    372
    372
    367.12
    McCain
    42.40
    45.44
    43.84


    43.99
    46.36
    44.76


    166
    166
    170.88
    Calculation method (base case)
    Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
    Poll average+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
    4% to third parties


    Weighted average of state polls (2004 recorded vote)
    Poll aggregate+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
    4% to third parties


    Unadjusted Poll Leader
    Poll + 60% undecided (UVA) to Obama
    EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states

     

    Monte Carlo Simulation (60% UVA to Obama, 5000 election trials)
    Mean
    Median
    Mode
    Maximum
    Minimum
    367.20
    371
    372
    417
    299
    170.80
    167
    166
    121
    239
    Average Expected EV
    Middle value
    Most frequent EV


     

    Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
    Minimum Electoral Vote
    Winning Trials >Min EV
    Probability (EV > Min)
    270
    5000
    100.0%
    310
    4996
    99.92%
    330
    4953
    99.1%
    350
    4475
    89.5%
    370
    2546
    50.9%
    390
    179
    3.6%
    410
    5
    0.10%


    Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

    Electoral-vote.com and RealClearPolitics now closely match the Election Model. As indicated in a prior update, these sites assign the full electoral vote to the state poll leader (regardless of the spread); they avoid using state win probabilities in calculating the EV. In the past, their EV totals were low and volatile compared to the Election Model; the polls were close and they did not allocate undecided voters. Now that Obama has pulled ahead in every battleground state, the Election Model undecided voter kick has virtually no impact on his expected EV; he is already projected to win.

    The discrepancy in win probabilities between the Election Model (100%) and FiveThirtyEight (90%) is due to fundamental differences in methodology. The 538 model adjusts state poll projections based on pollster rating weights as well as other factors. They forecast Election Day result. The Election Model assumes the election is held today and is fraud-free. The Election Model does not rank pollsters, but it does adjust the latest state poll average for a range of undecided voter allocations (4080%) a sensitivity what-if analysis.

    Ranking pollsters based on prior election results is a two-edged sword. If a pollster (Rasmussen) comes close to the recorded vote in a rigged election, does that mean he was more accurate than one who correctly projected the True Vote (Zogby)? Compare their performance in the 2000 election (Zogby was correct, Rasmussen was way off) to the totally corrupt 2004 election (Rasmussen was correct and Zogby was off). This was the electoral-vote.com EV map on Nov 1, 2004.

    Compare the FiveThirtyEight Electoral Vote Distribution chart to the Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart.
     

    The Election Calculator Model

    In May, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 7159m.

    May 2008
    Estimated vote share

    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    113.7
    Voted
    17.2
    60.5
    51.6
    1.6

    130.9
    Mix
    13.1%
    46.2%
    39.4%
    1.2%

    100.0%
    130.9m
    Obama
    59%
    89%
    11%
    70%

    54.1%
    70.8m
    McCain
    40%
    10%
    88%
    11%

    44.7%
    58.5m
    Other
    1%
    1%
    1%
    19%

    1.2%
    1.6m

     
    On October 14, the Calculator was updated to include new information:

    1) An increase of over 20% in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
    2) A slight increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
    3) An increase in third party vote share.

    Obama is now projected to win by 8058 million votes in a fraud-free landslide.

    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    113.7
    Votes
    29.9
    60.6
    51.6
    1.6

    143.7
    Mix
    20.8%
    42.2%
    35.9%
    1.1%

    100.0%
    143.7m
    Obama
    59%
    92%
    11%
    64%

    55.7%
    80.1m
    McCain
    35%
    5%
    86%
    11%

    40.4%
    58.1m
    Other
    6%
    3%
    3%
    25%

    3.9%
    5.6m

    The model sensitivity analysis indicates the following, assuming other vote shares are held constant:
    If Obama wins just 9% of returning Bush voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.5m votes (54.241.6%).
    If he wins just 55% of new voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.2m votes (5442%).
    If he wins by 5244%, he would win by 74.763.4m.
    If he wins by 5046%, he would win by 71.866.2m.


    The 1988-2004 Election Calculator was developed as a response to the Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
    The Final NEP was 'forced' to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.

    In the Final NEP (see '13660'), 43% of 2004 voters -- 52.6m -- were former Bush 2000 voters; 37% were Gore voters.
    But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.
    Approximately 2.5m died by 2004, and another 2.5m did not return to vote in 2004.
    Therefore, only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.

    The Final NEP overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt, miscounted vote.

    The 2004 True Vote calculation was based on an estimated 100.1m returning 2000 voters, calculated as:
    Total votes cast in 2000 (110.8m)...less voter mortality (5.4m)...times 95% turnout (100.1m).
    Vote shares were based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll ( 13047 randomly selected, 1% MoE ).

    The model determined that Kerry won by 66.957.1 million.

    Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
    The results indicate that 5.4m votes (8.0% of Kerrys total) were switched from Kerry to Bush.


    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Cast
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    100.1
    Votes
    25.6
    49.7
    46.6
    3.8

    125.7
    Mix
    20.4%
    39.5%
    37.1%
    3.0%

    100.0%
    125.7m
    Kerry
    57%
    91%
    10%
    64%

    53.2%
    66.9m
    Bush
    41%
    8%
    90%
    17%

    45.4%
    57.1
    Other
    2%
    1%
    0%
    19%

    1.4%
    1.7m
     


    Recorded Vote share
    Recorded Vote

    Unadjusted Exit Poll
    Deviation from True Vote
     
    122.3
     
     
     
    48.3%
    59.0

    52.0%
    1.2%
    50.7%
    62.0

    47.0%
    +1.6%
    1.0%
    1.2

    1.0%
    -0.4%




     


    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

     
    S T A T E   M O D E L
     
    N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
     
    MONTE CARLO
    SIMULATION

     
    L A T E S T  S T A T EP O L L  A V E R A G E
     
    L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O VA V E R A G E
     
    EXPECTED

     
    Weighted
    Aggregate
    2-party
    Current
    2-party
    Projection
    Actual
    Projection
     

    5-Poll
    5-Poll 2-party
    Current
    2-party
    Projection
    Actual
    Projection
     
    ELECTORAL VOTE

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     
     
     
    60% UVA

    10/14/2008
    Obama
    McCain

    50.09
    43.99
     

    53.24
    46.76
     

    53.64
    46.36
     

    51.24
    44.76
     

     
     
     

    50.00
    42.40
     

    54.11
    45.89
     

    54.56
    45.44
     

    52.16
    43.84
     

     
     
     

    367.2
    170.8
     


     
    75% UVA
     
     
     
     
    75% UVA

    11/01/2004
    Kerry
    Bush

    47.88
    46.89
     

    50.52
    49.48
     

    51.80
    48.20
     

    51.05
    47.95
     

     
     
     

    47.80
    46.60
     

    50.64
    49.36
     

    51.77
    48.23
     

    51.25
    47.75
     

     
     
     

    337
    201
     



     

    Go there to read/kick the FULL post
    ...includes the State Model...with state-by-state latest-poll comparison, up-to-date-Obama '08 : Kerry '04 Final Projection  

    Click here to RECOMMEND the FULL post



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    tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:25 PM
    Response to Original message
    1. 10/17 Update (PDF)
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 12:19 AM
    Response to Original message
    2. Next few weeks will be interesting.
    So much of the paradigm of understanding trends and polls has been influenced by what's happened at DU, it's hard to comprehend.

    Once, we were called crazy.

    This time around, the conversation includes all our concerns.

    :toast:, tiptoe, and to TIA.
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
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