Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

10/7 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA POLLING 364 EV (356 EXPECTED)- MAX PLAUSIBLE 375 EV w INDIANA? (x)

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 12:49 PM
Original message
10/7 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA POLLING 364 EV (356 EXPECTED)- MAX PLAUSIBLE 375 EV w INDIANA? (x)



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: October 7

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    10/07/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     49.48 (52.42) 
     44.92 (47.58) 
     49.80 (53.55) 
     43.20 (46.45) 
    52.84
    47.16
    54.00
    46.00
    356
    182


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen
    Zogby

    Battleground
    NBC/WSJ
    CBS/NYT
    CNN
    Marist

    AP/GfK
    CBS/NYT
    Ipsos
    Time
    Pew Research

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    10/06
    10/06
    10/06
    10/06
    10/06

    10/05
    10/05
    10/05
    10/05
    09/30

    09/30
    09/30
    09/30
    09/29
    09/29

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2744 RV
    908 LV
    3000 LV
    1237 LV

    800 LV
    658 RV
    616 LV
    694 LV
    943 LV

    808 LV
    769 LV
    1007 RV
    1133 LV
    1181 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.87%
    3.25%
    1.79%
    2.79%

    3.46%
    3.82%
    3.95%
    3.72%
    3.19%

    3.45%
    3.53%
    3.09%
    2.91%
    2.85%
    Obama
                
    52
    51
    46
    52
    48

    50
    49
    48
    53
    49

    48
    50
    48
    50
    49

    49.3
    49.6
    49.5
    53.4
    McCain
                
    41
    42
    44
    44
    45

    43
    43
    45
    45
    44

    41
    41
    45
    43
    43

    43.3
    43.3
    43.3
    46.6
    Other
                
    7
    7
    10
    4
    7

    7
    8
    7
    2
    7

    11
    9
    7
    7
    8

    7.3
    7.2
    7.2
    0.0
    Spread
                
    11
    9
    2
    8
    3

    7
    6
    3
    8
    5

    7
    9
    3
    7
    6

    6.0
    6.3
    6.3
    6.8
     
    Obama
                
    49.8
    49.4
    49.0
    49.4
    49.6

    49.8
    49.4
    49.6
    49.6
    49.0

    49.0
    49.4
    48.8
    49.6
    49.2
    McCain
                
    43.2
    43.6
    43.8
    44.0
    44.2

    44.0
    43.6
    43.2
    43.2
    42.8

    42.6
    43.6
    43.8
    43.4
    44.0
    Spread
                
    6.6
    5.8
    5.2
    5.4
    5.4

    5.8
    5.8
    6.4
    6.4
    6.2

    6.4
    5.8
    5.0
    6.2
    5.2
    Win Prob
                   
    99.9
    99.7
    99.4
    99.9
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.7

    99.4
    97.8
    91.5
    88.1
    90.0
     
    Obama
                
    54.0
    53.6
    53.3
    53.4
    53.3

    53.5
    53.6
    53.9
    53.9
    53.9

    54.0
    53.6
    53.2
    53.8
    53.3
    McCain
                
    46.0
    46.4
    46.7
    46.6
    46.7

    46.5
    46.4
    46.1
    46.1
    46.1

    46.0
    46.4
    46.8
    46.2
    46.7
    Spread
                
    8.0
    7.2
    6.6
    6.7
    6.6

    7.0
    7.2
    7.8
    7.8
    7.8

    8.1
    7.2
    6.5
    7.6
    6.6
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    99.9
    100.0
    100.0

    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    99.9
    99.6
    97.4
    96.2
    96.9
     

     
    The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all the battleground states except Indiana. The Election Models undecided voter allocation solidifies his projected margin and win probability but does not increase his EV. Note that the theoretical expected EV is lower than the projected EV. In fact, there appears to be a 375 maximum on Obamas total projected EV, assuming that he wins Indiana but no other red states in which he is trailing by large margins.

    State Model
    Aggregate Average
    Projection (2-party)
    Theoretical EV
    Expected (mean) EV
    Median EV
    Polling EV
    Projected EV
    Election Trial Wins

    National Model
    Tracking Poll Average
    Projection (2-party)
     

    Obama
    49.48
    52.84
    356.3
    356.3
    359.0
    364.0
    364.0
    5000


    49.80
    54.00

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    McCain
    44.92
    47.16
    181.7
    181.7
    179.0
    174.0
    174.0
    0


    43.20
    46.00
     


    weighted average based on 2004 recorded vote
    Base case scenario: 60% Undecided (UVA) to Obama
    EV = ∑ ( state win probability (i) *EV(i) ) i=1,51 states
    Monte Carlo simulation (60% UVA, 5000 election trials)
    Monte Carlo simulation
    Latest State Polling split (unadjusted)
    Latest State Poll + 60% Undecided (UVA) to Obama
    Monte Carlo (random number vs. state win probability)

    Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
    60% UVA to Obama

    View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    Optimal Obama Resource Allocation to Key States

    A new feature of the model is a ranking measure of optimal allocation of resources for key states. The rankings are a function of the electoral vote and the polling spread. A state with a high electoral vote and low polling spread will result in a high ranking based on the percentage of resources to be allocated. As of today, the five most important (highest ranked) states and corresponding allocation percentages are:

    1- OH (20.0), 2- FL (19.3), 3,4 (tie)- IN (11.0), - MO (11.0), 5- NC (10.7).

    In other words, Obama should allocate approximately 72% of available funds to these states. See the detailed state polling analysis below.

    Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

    Electoral-vote.com (34917415) and RealClearPolitics (364174) now closely match the Election Model. As indicated in a prior update, it is mathematically incorrect to just assign the state electoral vote to the poll leader (regardless of the spread) and to disregard state win probabilities which are based on the poll split; the two sites do not use probabilities in calculating the EV. Prior to last week, their EV estimates for Obama were low compared to the Election Model since a) the state polls were close and b) they do not allocate undecided voters.


    Election Model Calculations

    The projected vote share is equal to the latest poll plus the undecided voter allocation.

    V(i)  =  Poll(i) + UVA(i)



    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

    Last
    S T A T E   M O D E L
     
    N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
     
    MONTE CARLO
    SIMULATION

    Update
    L A T E S T  S T A T EP O L L  A V E R A G E
     
    L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O VA V E R A G E
     
    EXPECTED

    10/07/2008
    Aggregate
    2-party
    Projection
     
    5-Poll
    5-Poll 2-party
    Projection
     
    ELECTORAL VOTE

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     
     
    60% UVA

    Current   EV
    Obama
    McCain
     
    49.48
    44.92
     

    52.42
    47.58
     

    52.84
    47.16
     

     
     
     

    49.80
    43.20
     

    53.55
    46.45
     

    54.00
    46.00
     

     
     
     

    356
    182
     


     
    75% UVA
     
     
     
    75% UVA

    11/01/04  EV
    Kerry
    Bush
     
    47.88
    46.89
     

    50.52
    49.48
     

    51.80
    48.20
     

     
     
     

    47.80
    46.60
     

    50.64
    49.36
     

    51.77
    48.23
     

     
     
     

    337
    201
     


     
    2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

    State Model
    (2-party vote shares)
    L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L
     
    KEY STATES
    (within MoE)
     
    2004 EM  KERRY  VOTEPROJECTION  vs
    EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTECOUNT
     
    2008  vs  2004
    PROJECTED  VOTE

     

     
     
    Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
     
    60% UVA
    Projection
     
    MC Exp EV
    Win Prob
     

    Resource  Allocation
     
    Vote
    Projected
    WPE (IM)
     Exit Poll 
    Vote
    Counted
     
    Kerry Projection
    deviation
     
     
    2008 Obama
    diff
     
    StatesEV
    Flip To(*)


       

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO


    Last
    Poll
    Date

    9/23
    9/21
    9/30
    9/22
    10/5

    10/5
    VoteShare
    Popular
    Electoral

    9
    3
    10
    6
    55

    9
    Obama
    49.48 %
    364

    37
    38
    38
    37
    55

    48
    McCain
    44.92 %
    174

    62
    55
    52
    47
    39

    44
     
    Spread
    4.56 %
    190

    (25)
    (17)
    (14)
    (10)

    16

    4
     
    Obama
    52.84 %
    364

    37.6
    42.2
    44.0
    46.6
    58.6

    52.8
     
    Obama
    100.0 %
    356.3

    0.0
    0.0
    0.2
    4.8
    100.0

    91.5
     
    Percent
    100
            







    6.4
     
    Rank

            







    6
     
    Final  Kerry
    51.75 %
    337

    42.0
    39.8
    48.8
    50.5
    55.8

    50.8
    JK Unadj
    52.51 %
    337

    42.1
    41.6
    44.9
    45.7
    60.9

    50.7
    Kerry
    48.76 %
    252

    37.2
    35.9
    44.8
    45.0
    54.9

    47.5

     
    Exit Poll
    0.75 %
      0  

    0.1
    1.8
    (3.9)
    (4.8)

    5.2

    (0.0)

     
    Vote Cnt
    ( 3.0 ) %
    (85)

    (4.8)
    (3.9)
    (3.9)
    (5.5)
    (0.9)

    (3.3)

     
       Final  Kerry  
    1.09 %
      19.3  

    (4.4)
    2.5
    (4.8)
    (3.9)

    2.9

    2.1
     
    Obama
    9
    112

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO*





    Why Election Model projections differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers



    Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV



    The Great Election Fraud Lockdown: Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Votes




    Complete Update:  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...






    Refresh | +1 Recommendations Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
    BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 12:56 PM
    Response to Original message
    1. TIA !!
    I can dig it, man. Great news! Good to see you haven't given up on us.

    Obama will win an honest election and I think he will win by such a great margin that it will make bushco decide they can't steal the presidency this time.

    However, what we need to be aware of is that a theft of congress is their plan B.

    Can you help us there?
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 05:08 PM
    Response to Original message
    2. Latest Update has WV at 46 -46 (4:03 pm EST)
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 06:44 PM
    Response to Original message
    3. UPDATED ELECTION MODEL (PDF) 10/10 @ 330PM: Obama 364EV; 53.1% state; 54.5% National
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Wed Sep 17th 2014, 05:34 PM
    Response to Original message
    Advertisements [?]
     Top

    Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

    Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
    Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


    Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

    Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

    About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

    Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

    © 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC