Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

9/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): Obama@ 340EV; state/nat値 polls, projections, win probs & fraud scenarios

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-29-08 11:12 PM
Original message
9/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): Obama@ 340EV; state/nat値 polls, projections, win probs & fraud scenarios



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: September 28

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    9/28/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     47.96 (51.40) 
     45.34 (48.60) 
     48.60 (53.29) 
     42.60 (46.71) 
    51.98
    48.02
    53.88
    46.12
    340
    198


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Gallup
    Rasmussen
    Hotline/FD
    Research2k
    CBS/NYT

    ABC/WP
    NBC/WSJ
    LAT
    FOX News
    Ipsos

    CNN
    Quinnipiac
    CBS/NYT
    Zogby
    Ipsos

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    9/27
    9/27
    9/27
    9/25
    9/24

    9/22
    9/22
    9/22
    9/22
    9/22

    9/21
    9/16
    9/16
    9/15
    9/15

    Size   
                  
    2719 RV
    3000 LV
    914 RV
    1100 LV
    844 RV

    780 LV
    838 LV
    1085 RV
    900 RV
    923 RV

    697 LV
    987 LV
    800 LV
    1008 LV
    1046 RV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    MoE
             
    1.88%
    1.79%
    3.24%
    2.95%
    3.37%

    3.51%
    3.39%
    2.98%
    3.27%
    3.23%

    3.71%
    3.12%
    3.46%
    3.09%
    3.03%
    Obama
                
    50
    50
    47
    49
    47

    52
    48
    49
    45
    44

    51
    49
    49
    47
    45

    46.7
    49.4
    48.1
    McCain
                
    42
    44
    42
    43
    42

    43
    46
    45
    39
    43

    47
    45
    44
    45
    45

    42.6
    44.6
    43.7
    Other
                
    8
    6
    11
    8
    11

    5
    6
    6
    16
    13

    2
    6
    7
    8
    10

    10.7
    6.0
    8.2
    Spread
                
    8
    6
    5
    6
    5

    9
    2
    4
    6
    1

    4
    4
    5
    2
    0

    4.1
    4.8
    4.5
     
    Obama
                
    48.6
    49.0
    48.6
    49.0
    48.2

    47.6
    47.4
    47.6
    47.6
    48.0

    48.2
    47.2
    46.6
    45.6
    44.6
    McCain
                
    42.6
    42.8
    43.2
    43.8
    43.0

    43.2
    44.0
    43.8
    43.6
    44.8

    45.2
    45.0
    45.2
    46.0
    46.0
    Spread
                
    6.0
    6.2
    5.4
    5.2
    5.2

    4.4
    3.4
    3.8
    4.0
    3.2

    3.0
    2.2
    1.4
    (0.4)
    (1.4)
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    99.8
    99.5
    99.7
    97.8

    91.5
    88.1
    90.0
    91.1
    88.7

    90.6
    89.1
    82.2
    36.3
    20.1
     
    Obama
                
    53.9
    53.9
    53.5
    53.3
    53.5

    53.1
    52.6
    52.8
    52.9
    52.3

    52.2
    51.9
    51.5
    50.6
    50.2
    McCain
                
    46.1
    46.1
    46.5
    46.7
    46.5

    46.9
    47.4
    47.2
    47.1
    47.7

    47.8
    48.1
    48.5
    49.4
    49.8
    Spread
                
    7.8
    7.8
    7.0
    6.6
    7.0

    6.2
    5.1
    5.5
    5.8
    4.6

    4.3
    3.8
    3.0
    1.3
    0.5
    Win Prob
                   
    100.00
    99.99
    99.97
    99.98
    99.6

    97.4
    96.2
    96.9
    97.4
    96.0

    97.1
    98.2
    97.7
    86.9
    61.3
     

     
    The TRUE Math

    Assume that current state polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. The 2008 Election Model indicates that given the following undecided voter allocations (UVA), Obama痴 projected 2-party vote share and expected (mean) electoral vote are:

    UVA
    50%
    60%
    75%
    80%
    Vote
    51.3%
    52.0%
    53.0%
    53.3%
    Evote
    325
    340
    359
    364
    EV Wins   (in a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election trials)
    4966
    4996          (base case scenario)
    5000
    5000
     

    Note: the polls were taken prior to the debate so Obama痴 numbers should improve as a result.

    Obama is projected to win 53.9% of the two-party vote based on the most recent 5 national polls. The national tracking polls include one-day of sampling post-debate. Since the national polls lead the states, we can expect a rise in Obama痴 expected EV. With a 53.3% state poll aggregate, he could expect 364 EV (see the table).

    View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    But what if the election is not fraud-free? Assuming 3% of votes cast are uncounted (75% of which are traditionally Democratic) and 4% of Obama痴 votes are switched electronically to McCain, Obama would lose by 277261 EV with 49.4% of the two-party vote (see the election fraud sensitivity table below).

    This was the electoral vote.com map on Nov 1, 2004.

    The expected electoral vote is calculated by the formula:

    EV  =  Σ P(i) * EV(i),   where i = 1,51


    P(i) is the probability of winning state (i) with EV(i) electoral votes.

    The probability P(i) of winning state (i) is based on the projected state vote share V(i).

    The projected vote share is equal to the latest poll plus the undecided voter allocation.


    V(i)  =  Poll(i)+UVA(i)


    The state win probability is calculated using the Excel Normal distribution function, assuming a 4.0% MoE for a typical 600-sample poll:


    P(i)  =  NORMDIST ( V(i),  0.5,  .04/1.96,  true )

    The electoral votes, current poll numbers, projected vote shares and win probabilities for all the states are given in the table below.

    Electoral-vote.com and RealClearPolitics have Obama leading by 286252. They assign the state electoral vote to the poll leader, regardless of the spread. This is mathematically incorrect, since win probabilities are dependent on the spread which they do not use in calculating the EV. Furthermore, undecided voters are NOT allocated.

    On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight has Obama leading by 318220. But the win probability of 79% is much too low it should be close to 98%. This indicates a problem with the simulation algorithm and/or the state win probabilities. The electoral vote distribution chart is not a continuous normal distribution bell-curve; there are discrete jumps in the bin totals. The curve should be smooth and symmetric around the mean (expected EV) which is within 1 EV of the median in a 5000 Election trial Monte Carlo simulation. The Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart is a continuous, bell-shaped EV frequency histogram.


    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

    Last
    S T A T E   M O D E L
     
    N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
     
    MONTE CARLO
    SIMULATION

    Update
    L A T E S T  S T A T E鳳 O L L  A V E R A G E
     
    L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O V泡 V E R A G E
     
    EXPECTED

    9/28/2008
    Aggregate
    2-party
    Projection
     
    5-Poll
    5-Poll 2-party
    Projection
     
    ELECTORAL VOTE

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     
     
    60% UVA

    Obama
    McCain
    47.96
    45.34
    51.40
    48.60
    51.98
    48.02
     
     
    48.60
    42.60
    53.29
    46.71
    53.88
    46.12
     
     
    340
    198


    Nov 1, 2004 Final Election Model
    75% UVA
     
     
     
    75% UVA

    Kerry
    Bush
    47.88
    46.89
    50.52
    49.48
    51.80
    48.20
     
     
    47.80
    46.60
    50.64
    49.36
    51.77
    48.23
     
     
    337
    201



    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama

    Uncounted
    1%
     
    2%
     
    3%
     

    Switched
    2%
    4%
    6%
    Vote%
    50.7
    49.7
    48.6
    EV
    309
    280
    249
    Vote%
    50.5
    49.4
    48.4
    EV
    303
    274
    243
    Vote%
    50.2
    49.2
    48.1
    EV
    296
    268
    237


    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share

    Undecided Voter Allocation Scenario
    Base Case

    Obama
    40%
    50%
    60%
    75%
    80%


    Projected 2-Party Vote Share

    Obama
    McCain
    50.6
    49.4
    51.3
    48.7
    51.98
    48.02
    53.0
    47.0
    53.3
    46.7


    MoE
    Popular Vote Obama Win Probability (Normdist)

    1.0 %
    2.0 %
    3.0 %
    89.5
    73.5
    66.2
    99.5
    90.0
    80.4
    99.99
    97.4
    90.2
    100.0
    99.8
    97.4
    100.0
    99.9
    98.5


    Electoral Vote Obama       (Monte Carlo Simulation:  based on state win-probabilities)

    Mean
    Median
    308.5
    308.0
    325.1
    325.5
    339.9
    340.0
    358.6
    360.0
    364.3
    366.0

    Maximum
    Minimum
    377
    233
    404
    249
    420
    263
    420
    284
    420
    293


    Electoral Vote Obama Win Probability

    Trial Wins
    Probability
    4808
    96.2
    4966
    99.3
    4996
    99.92
    5000
    100.0
    5000
    100.0


    95% EV Confidence Interval
    Upper
    Lower
    352
    265
    368
    282
    381
    299
    393
    324
    396
    333


    States Won
    Obama
     
    24
     
    25
     
    30
     
    30
     
    30
     



     

     
    2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

    National Model see atop
    State Model
    (2-party vote shares)
    L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L
     
    KEY STATES
    (within MoE)
     
    2004 EM  KERRY  VOTE鳳ROJECTION  vs
    EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTE砲OUNT
     
    2008  vs  2004
    PROJECTED  VOTE

     

     
     
    Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
     
    60% UVA
    Projection
     
    MC Exp EV
    Win Prob
     

    Resource
     

    Allocate
     
    Vote
    Projected
    WPE (IM)
     Exit Poll 
    Vote
    Counted
     
    Kerry Projection
    deviation
     
     
    2008 Obama
    diff
     
    StatesEV
    Flip To(*)


       

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO
    CT
    DC
    DE
    FL





    Poll
    Date

    9/23
    9/21
    9/14
    9/22
    9/20

    9/23
    9/19
    9/13
    9/23
    9/25

    VoteShare
    Popular
    Electoral

    9
    3
    10
    6
    55

    9
    7
    3
    3
    27

    Obama
    48.0 %
    301

    34
    38
    39
    37
    52

    51
    54
    90
    57
    47

    McCain
    45.3 %
    190

    60
    55
    56
    47
    36

    42
    40
    9
    37
    47

     
    Spread
    2.62 %
    111

    (26)
    (17)
    (17)
    (10)

    16

    9
    14
    81
    20
    0

     
    Obama
    51.98 %
    375

    37.6
    42.2
    42.0
    46.6
    59.2

    55.2
    57.6
    90.6
    60.6
    50.6

     
    Obama
    99.92 %
    339.9

    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    4.8
    100.0

    99.5
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    61.6

     
    Percent
    100
            











    23.9

     
    Rank

            











    1

     
    Final  Kerry
    51.75 %
    337

    42.0
    39.8
    48.8
    50.5
    55.8

    50.8
    56.5
    86.3
    57.8
    52.3

    JK Unadj
    52.51 %
    337

    42.1
    41.6
    44.9
    45.7
    60.9

    50.7
    63.4
    91.9
    61.9
    51.4

    Kerry
    48.76 %
    252

    37.2
    35.9
    44.8
    45.0
    54.9

    47.5
    54.9
    90.1
    53.9
    47.6


     
    Exit Poll
    0.75 %
      0  

    0.1
    1.8
    (3.9)
    (4.8)

    5.2

    (0.0)
    6.9
    5.7
    4.1
    (0.8)

     
    Vote Cnt
    ( 3.0 ) %
    (85)

    (4.8)
    (3.9)
    (3.9)
    (5.5)
    (0.9)

    (3.3)
    (1.6)

    3.8
    (3.9)
    (4.7)


     
       Final  Kerry  
    0.23 %
      3  

    (4.4)
    2.5
    (6.8)
    (3.9)

    3.5

    4.5
    1.1
    4.3
    2.9
    (1.7)

     
    Obama
    10
    123

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO*
    CT
    DC
    DE
    FL*



    Refresh | +3 Recommendations Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
    opihimoimoi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-29-08 11:31 PM
    Response to Original message
    1. Lemme toast to the 340 EVs
    :toast:

    K&R
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-06-08 06:02 AM
    Response to Reply #1
    3. Well, TIA is wrong here:
    On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight has Obama leading by 318220. But the win probability of 79% is much too low it should be close to 98%. This indicates a problem with the simulation algorithm and/or the state win probabilities. The electoral vote distribution chart is not a continuous normal distribution bell-curve; there are discrete jumps in the bin totals. The curve should be smooth and symmetric around the mean (expected EV) which is within 1 EV of the median in a 5000 Election trial Monte Carlo simulation. The Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart is a continuous, bell-shaped EV frequency histogram.


    The reason that Nate Silver's histogram has "discrete jumps in the bin totals" is that the electoral college consists of discrete bins. If a candidate wins a state in any scenario the bin total "jumps" to include all the electoral votes of that state.

    And you certainly wouldn't expect a symmetric plot, because the electoral votes aren't symmetrically distributed between red and blue states.

    I don't know how TIA is getting his curve to be "smooth and symmetreic around the mean" but he's clearly doing something wrong, because it can't be.


    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-06-08 08:37 AM
    Response to Reply #3
    4. it ISN'T "smooth and symmetric around the mean"
    The ogive is pretty enough, but the histogram is not symmetrical. It just isn't.

    It does appear smoother than fivethirtyeight's, however, because it uses bins that are 5 electoral votes wide. (Whoever, if anyone, taught TIA that the resulting histogram could be described as "continuous" has much to answer for.) The effective resolution of the fivethirtyeight.com graphic appears to be 2 electoral votes per pixel.

    As for why fivethirtyeight's win percentage is smaller, well, maybe TIA should read the FAQ.
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-06-08 10:02 AM
    Response to Reply #4
    5. Right.
    So TIA's curve is smoother because he uses wider bins, and he doesn't get symmetry anyway.

    And neither has anything to do with why fivethirtyeight gets a smaller percentage win.

    TIA probably gets a larger percentage win because he uses a different weighting for the polls.

    I wonder if he still likes Zogby.

    heh.
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    Marnieworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-30-08 04:55 PM
    Response to Original message
    2. kick
    :hi:
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Wed Apr 23rd 2014, 07:04 PM
    Response to Original message
    Advertisements [?]
     Top

    Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

    Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
    Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


    Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

    Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

    About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

    Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

    © 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC