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9/22 ELECTION MODEL ( TIA ): Obama! 330 EV, 99% win probability - x

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-23-08 09:14 PM
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9/22 ELECTION MODEL ( TIA ): Obama! 330 EV, 99% win probability - x


2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: September 22

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    9/22/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     47.01 (50.77) 
     45.58 (49.23) 
     48.67 (52.05) 
     44.83 (47.95) 
    51.46
    48.54
    52.57
    47.43
    330
    208


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Gallup
    Rasmussen
    Hotline/FD
    CNN
    Quinnipiac

    CBS/NYT
    Zogby
    Ipsos
    Pew Resrch
    Newsweek

    AP/gFk
    FOX News
    NBC/WSJ
    CBS/NYT
    CNN

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    9/21
    9/21
    9/21
    9/21
    9/16

    9/16
    9/15
    9/15
    9/14
    9/11

    9/10
    9/09
    9/08
    9/07
    9/07

    Size   
                  
    2796 RV
    3000 LV
    915 RV
    697 LV
    987 LV

    800 LV
    1008 LV
    1046 RV
    2307 LV
    1038 RV

    812 RV
    900 RV
    1000 RV
    655 RV
    942 RV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    MoE
             
    1.85%
    1.79%
    3.24%
    3.71%
    3.12%

    3.46%
    3.09%
    3.03%
    2.04%
    3.04%

    3.44%
    3.27%
    3.10%
    3.83%
    3.19%
    Obama
                
    48
    48
    47
    51
    49

    49
    47
    45
    46
    46

    44
    42
    46
    44
    48

    45.6
    48.3
    46.7
    McCain
                
    44
    47
    42
    47
    45

    44
    45
    45
    46
    46

    48
    45
    45
    46
    48

    45.4
    45.7
    45.5
    Other
                
    8
    5
    11
    2
    6

    7
    8
    10
    8
    8

    8
    13
    9
    10
    4

    9.0
    6.0
    7.8
    Spread
                
    4
    1
    5
    4
    4

    5
    2
    0
    0
    0

    (4)
    (3)
    1
    (2)
    0

    0.1
    2.7
    1.1
     
    Obama
                
    48.7
    48.5
    48.0
    48.2
    47.2

    46.6
    45.6
    44.6
    44.8
    44.4

    44.8
    45.4
    45.0
    44.6
    45.0
    McCain
                
    44.8
    45.0
    44.7
    45.2
    45.0

    45.2
    46.0
    46.0
    46.0
    46.0

    46.4
    46.6
    46.6
    48.4
    47.2
    Spread
                
    3.8
    3.5
    3.3
    3.0
    2.2

    1.4
    (0.4)
    (1.4)
    (1.2)
    (1.6)

    (1.6)
    (1.2)
    (1.6)
    (3.8)
    (2.2)
    Win Prob
                   
    98.5
    98.0
    86.2
    80.2
    77.3

    66.7
    44.5
    30.9
    26.3
    28.4

    30.9
    34.8
    29.0
    14.8
    23.2
     
    Obama
                
    52.57
    52.4
    52.4
    52.2
    51.9

    51.5
    50.6
    50.2
    50.3
    50.2

    50.1
    50.2
    50.0
    48.8
    49.7
    McCain
                
    47.43
    47.6
    47.6
    47.8
    48.1

    48.5
    49.4
    49.8
    49.7
    49.8

    49.9
    49.8
    50.0
    51.2
    50.3
    Spread
                
    5.1
    4.8
    4.8
    4.3
    3.8

    3.0
    1.3
    0.5
    0.6
    0.3

    0.2
    0.4
    0.1
    (2.4)
    (0.6)
    Win Prob
                   
    99.7
    99.6
    92.7
    87.3
    88.1

    80.5
    65.8
    56.2
    62.1
    54.1

    51.8
    54.8
    51.0
    27.0
    42.2
     

     
    Obamas EV and Popular Vote Win Probability is on the Rise

    Assuming that the election is held today (and is fraud-free), the Election Model projects that there is a better than 99% probability that Obama would win the election. His expected electoral vote margin is 330208 with a 51.46% two-party vote share. He also leads the National model (based on the latest 5 national polls) with 52.57% of the vote giving him a 99.7% popular vote win probability.

    The EV win probability is a simple calculation: Obama won 4926 of 5000 simulated election trials. His win probability is therefore 98.5% (4926/5000). View the Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. The model is a snapshot in time. Ideally, the weighted average vote shares would be identical in both the national and state models. But if they are, its just a coincidence; state polls lag the national polls. View the State vs. National Vote Share Projection Trend.

    The base case scenario assumes that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote. And this is conservative; he is presumed to be the challenger, since McSame is running for the third Bush term). Note that the national polls lead the state polls, so that we can expect a rise in Obamas expected EV and win probability. The national model also assumes that he will win 60% of the undecided vote. The probability that he will win the popular vote is over 99% again assuming zero fraud, fairly accurate polls with the election held today.

    If Obama captures just 50% of the undecided vote, he is expected to win by 311227 EV with a 50.6% vote share and a 96% win probability. The probability of winning the electoral vote is very close to the probability of winning the popular vote. In other words, if the projected vote share is nearly tied, the probability of winning the electoral vote will also be close to 50%.

    Democrats are strongest in high EV urban states, and Republicans are strong in low EV rural states. Thats why Obama can win the Electoral vote with slightly less than 50% of the total popular vote. The sensitivity analysis (see below) shows that if Obama wins 40% of the undecided vote, he will have 50.0% of the 2-party vote, 290 electoral votes and an 80% win probability.

    The fivethirtyeight.com site projects Obama with a 311.5226.5 EV lead and a 74.4% win probability. Obama would surely win more than 74% of the trials in a Monte Carlo simulation with that expected EV split, unless they are factoring in a fraud component without saying so.

    As of Sept. 22, electoral-vote.com has Obama leading by 273265; realclearpolitics has Obama by 219189 (130 tossup). But the 2008 Election Model (EM) has Obama leading by 330208. Why the difference?


    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

    Last
    Aggregate
    5-poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Expected

    9/22/2008
    Average
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     

    Obama
    McCain
    47.01
    45.58
    48.67
    44.83
    51.46
    48.54
    52.57
    47.43
    330
    208


    Nov 1, 2004 Final Election Model
    75% UVA
     
     

    Kerry
    Bush
    47.88
    46.89
    47.80
    46.60
    51.80
    48.20
    51.77
    48.23
    337
    201



    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama

    Uncounted
    1%
     
    2%
     
    3%
     

    Switched
    2%
    4%
    6%
    Vote%
    50.4
    49.4
    48.4
    EV
    303
    272
    240
    Vote%
    50.2
    49.2
    48.1
    EV
    289
    257
    227
    Vote%
    49.9
    48.9
    47.9
    EV
    274
    244
    213


    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share

    Undecided Voter Allocation Scenario
    Base Case

    Obama
    40%
    50%
    60%
    75%
    80%


    Projected 2-Party Vote Share

    Obama
    McCain
    50.0
    50.0
    50.7
    49.3
    51.46
    48.54
    52.6
    47.4
    52.9
    47.1


    MoE
    Obama Popular Vote Win Probability (Normdist)

    1.0 %
    2.0 %
    3.0 %
    47.9
    49.0
    49.3
    91.9
    75.8
    68.0
    99.78
    92.3
    82.9
    100.0
    99.4
    95.3
    100.0
    99.8
    97.3


    Obama Electoral Vote (Monte Carlo - 5000 election trials)

    Mean
    Median
    289.9
    289.0
    311.2
    311.0
    330.4
    332.0
    355.2
    358.0
    362.2
    364.0

    Maximum
    Minimum
    385
    210
    382
    224
    400
    244
    417
    268
    420
    283


    Obama Electoral Vote Win Probability (Monte Carlo)

    Trial Wins
    Probability
    4009
    80.2
    4808
    96.2
    4978
    99.56
    4999
    99.98
    5000
    100.0


    95% EV Confidence Interval
    Upper
    Lower
    337
    243
    358
    265
    375
    286
    392
    319
    396
    329


    States Won
    Obama
     
    25
     
    25
     
    29
     
    29
     
    29
     



     

     


    full update: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



     

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    BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-23-08 09:16 PM
    Response to Original message
    1. TruthisAll comes thru again..
    :thumbsup:
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    kestrel91316 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-23-08 09:18 PM
    Response to Original message
    2. I'm not gonna relax just yet. Too much time for dirty tricks and
    October Surprises and WWIII between now and election day.......
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    No DUplicitous DUpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-23-08 09:27 PM
    Response to Original message
    3. Yeah, baby. I like this part best...
    "Democrats are strongest in high EV urban states, and Republicans are strong in low EV rural states. Thats why Obama can win the Electoral vote with slightly less than 50% of the total popular vote. The sensitivity analysis (see below) shows that if Obama wins 40% of the undecided vote, he will have 50.0% of the 2-party vote, 290 electoral votes and an 80% win probability".
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-24-08 10:39 AM
    Response to Original message
    4. correction: "...Obama won 4978 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials. His win probability
    is therefore 99.56% (4978/5000)."
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-24-08 11:13 AM
    Response to Reply #4
    5. My calculation says 99.558% probability.
    And that's up from last weeks 99.4459%

    I think someone needs to sharpen that pencil.

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    tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-24-08 03:09 PM
    Response to Reply #5
    6. Do you calculate/measure anything? Or just "believe" -- like * NY Urban Legend is a myth? n/t
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    foo_bar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-26-08 01:25 AM
    Response to Reply #6
    7. do you? you said before that you just added HTML to TIA screeds
    If what you're doing is allowed, so is quoting OTOH posts that you're avoiding like a stats textbook:
    umm, yo, I'm elsewhere on the thread

    Perhaps you've found that your arguments with me go better when I don't actually participate?

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

    It's still funny because you slammed OTOH several times on that very thread, but you're evidently afraid of responding to him directly (pardon me, you couldn't find the time, in spite of finding the time to talk crap about people behind their back). It's all very strange because OTOH teaches at the collegiate level the very subjects you're trying to learn, so it almost seems like a case of voluntary arrested development (incuriosity? believing your own cherrypicked intelligence?); heck, anyone who's been banned as many times as you should have learned how to simulate adult discourse by now. And yeah, put TIA's words in quotes if you're pretending not to be TIA, remember you're trying to be a "psychic medium" like mom cat and not a "sockpuppet" like Caruso.

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