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9/17 ELECTION MODEL(TIA): OBAMA SURGING, 319EV! WHY THE MODEL DIFFERS FROM 538, ELECTORAL-VOTE & RCP

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 12:32 AM
Original message
9/17 ELECTION MODEL(TIA): OBAMA SURGING, 319EV! WHY THE MODEL DIFFERS FROM 538, ELECTORAL-VOTE & RCP
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 12:52 AM by tiptoe



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: September 17

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    9/17/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     46.54 (50.69) 
     45.28 (49.31) 
     47.00 (51.20) 
     44.80 (48.80) 
    51.45
    48.55
    51.92
    48.08
    319
    219


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre  UVA
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Rasmussen
    Gallup
    Hotline/FD
    CBS/NYT
    Zogby

    Ipsos
    Newsweek
    AP/gFk
    FOX News
    NBC/WSJ

    CBS/NYT
    CNN
    ABC/WP
    IBD/TIPP
    USA/Gallup

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    9/16
    9/16
    9/16
    9/16
    9/15

    9/15
    9/11
    9/10
    9/09
    9/08

    9/07
    9/07
    9/07
    9/07
    9/07

    Size
                
    3000 LV
    2765 RV
    913 RV
    800 LV
    1008 LV

    1046 RV
    1038 RV
    812 RV
    900 RV
    1000 RV

    655 RV
    942 RV
    1000 LV
    868 RV
    823 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    MoE
                
    1.79%
    1.86%
    3.24%
    3.46%
    3.09%

    3.03%
    3.04%
    3.44%
    3.27%
    3.10%

    3.83%
    3.19%
    3.10%
    3.33%
    3.42%
    Obama
                
    47
    47
    45
    49
    47

    45
    46
    44
    42
    46

    44
    48
    47
    40
    44

    44.7
    46.8
    45.4
    McCain
                
    48
    45
    42
    44
    45

    45
    46
    48
    45
    45

    46
    48
    49
    45
    54

    45.5
    48.0
    46.3
    Other
                
    5
    8
    13
    7
    8

    10
    8
    8
    13
    9

    10
    4
    4
    15
    2

    9.8
    5.2
    8.3
    Spread
                
    (1)
    2
    3
    5
    2

    0
    0
    (4)
    (3)

    1

    (2)
    0
    (2)
    (5)
    (10)

    (0.8)
    (1.2)

    (0.9)
     
    Obama
                
    47.0
    46.6
    46.4
    46.2
    44.8

    44.6
    44.4
    44.8
    45.4
    45.0

    44.6
    45.0
    43.8
    44.4
    46.0
    McCain
                
    44.8
    44.2
    44.4
    45.6
    45.8

    45.8
    46.0
    46.4
    46.6
    46.6

    48.4
    47.2
    46.0
    44.8
    43.8
    Spread
                
    2.2
    2.4
    2.0
    0.6
    (1.0)

    (1.2)
    (1.6)
    (1.6)
    (1.2)
    (1.6)

    (3.8)
    (2.2)
    (2.2)
    (0.4)
    2.2
     
    Obama
                
    51.9
    52.1
    51.9
    51.1
    50.4

    50.4
    50.2
    50.1
    50.2
    50.0

    48.8
    49.7
    49.9
    50.9
    52.1
    McCain
                
    48.1
    47.9
    48.1
    48.9
    49.6

    49.6
    49.8
    49.9
    49.8
    50.0

    51.2
    50.3
    50.1
    49.1
    47.9
    Spread
                
    3.8
    4.2
    3.8
    2.2
    0.9

    0.7
    0.3
    0.2
    0.4
    0.1

    (2.4)
    (0.6)
    (0.2)

    1.8
    4.2
    Win Prob
                   
    98.2
    98.7
    87.7
    73.7
    61.0

    59.2
    54.1
    51.8
    54.8
    51.0

    27.0
    42.2
    48.0
    69.8
    88.8
     

     
    The Obama Surge

    The jarring economic news combined with a sharp increase in Sarah Palin negatives has caused Obama to rebound sharply in the state and national polls. The National model is at 51.92% thanks to Gallup, Hotline, Zogby and CBS. In the new CNN/Time state polls, he is leading in FL, OH, and VA and is nearly tied in NC. The State Monte Carlo model projects him to win 319 Electoral votes with 51.45% of the two-party vote.

    But the key result, as always, is Obamas Electoral Vote Win Probability. Its a simple calculation if you use Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won 4906 of 5000 Election trials, so its exactly 98.12%.  More confirmation: based on the national polls, there is a 98% probability that Obama will win the popular vote; based on the state polls, its 92%. Of course, all of these calculations assume that a fraud-free election is held today. Its a snapshot which changes slightly every day. But today was a major turning point. See the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    Why Election Model projections differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers

    There are a variety of election forecasting models used in academia, the media and internet election sites. The corporate MSM (CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, etc.) sponsors national polls to track the horserace and state polls to calculate the electoral vote.

    As of Sept.16, three well-known sites each had McCain in front: electoral-vote.com had him leading by 257247 (34 tied). realclearpolitics at 227207 (104 toss-up). The fivethirtyeight.com at 288250. But the 2008 Election Model (EM) had Obama leading 285253. Why the difference?

    The EM uses Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Monte Carlo is widely used to analyze diverse risk-based models, when an analytical solution is impractical or impossible. The EM is updated weekly based on the latest state and national polls. The model projects the popular and electoral vote, assuming both clean and fraudulent election scenarios. The EM allocates the electoral vote based on the state win probability in calculating a more realistic total Expected EV.

    Corporate MSM pollsters and media pundits use state and national polling data. Electoral vote projections are misleading, since they are calculated based on the latest state polls regardless of the spread; the state poll leader gets all of its electoral votes. This is statistically incorrect; they do not consider state win probabilities. And there is no adjustment for the allocation of undecided voters.

    For example, assume that McCain leads by 5149% in each of five states with a total of 100 electoral votes. Most models would simply assign the 100 EV to McCain. But that is an oversimplification: Obama could easily win one or more of the states, since his win probability is 31% :

    • The state projected vote share V(i) is the state poll share PS(i) plus the undecided voter allocation UVA(i):

      V(i) = PS(i)+UVA(i),   for i=1,51 states

      For this example, a final Obama projected vote share V(i) = .49 for all states is assumed (with distinct state poll shares and respective undecided voter allocations implied). Five states total 100 EV.


    • The probability P(i) of winning each state assuming a 4% polling MoE (95% confidence):

      P(i)  =  NORMDIST ( V(i),  0.5,  .04/1.96,  true )

      .31 = NORMDIST( .49,  0.5,  .04/1.96,  true)  for each of the 5 states       (the NORMDIST function is available in Excel)

      The 2008 Election Model would allocate 31% of 100 EV to Obama and 69% of 100 EV to McCain.

    Bloggers also track state and national polls and do not adjust for undecided voters. A few use Monte Carlo simulation, but the EV win probabilities and frequency distributions are NOT consistent with the polling data. Either the state win probabilities and/or the simulation algorithm is incorrect.

    Academic regression models predict the popular vote but are run months prior to the election. They are typically based on economic and political factors rather than state or national polling data. They do not project the electoral vote. In 2004, virtually all of them forecast Bush to win by 5-10%. But since the election was stolen, the models had to be wrong they didnt factor election fraud as an independent variable in the regression. In fact, they never even mentioned the F-word in describing their methodologies.

    Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV

    There has been much discussion regarding the recent McCain surge in the national polls. Most national and state polls are sponsored by the corporate MSM. Gallup, Rasmussen and other national polls recently increased the Republican Party ID percentage weighting. This had the immediate effect of boosting McCains poll numbers. But there are 11 million more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. USA Today/Gallup changed the poll method from RV to LV right after the Republican convention. Party-ID weights were manipulated to favor McCain as well.

    There is a consistent discrepancy between Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) Polls. The Democrats always do better in RV polls. No wonder: Since 1988, Democratic presidential candidates have won new voters by an average 14% margin.

    The manipulation of polling weights is nothing new. Recall that the 2004 and 2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the recorded vote miscount. But all category cross-tabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the Final Exit Poll (state and national) is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent as it was in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006. This cannot be emphasized enough. Say it loud, again and again.

    In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 3835 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix.

    Kerry won  the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 5148%.    ( 13,047 random sample, 1% MoE )

    The mix was changed to 3737 in the Final NEP  to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote;

    Bush won  the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 5148%.

    Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 3941 to 3743 in the Final    ('13047' & '13660' here).

    The election was stolen.  Bush was the official winner by 50.748.3% with 286 EV.  The Final Exit Polls were "adjusted" accordingly.

    The final 2004 Election Model projection indicated that Kerry would win 337201 EV with 51.8% of the 2-party vote.  In their Jan. 2005 report, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky provided the average exit poll discrepancy for each state based on 1250 total precincts. Kerry won the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll vote share by 52.047.0% (2-party 52.5%) with 337 electoral votes exactly matching the Election Model!

    In the 2006 midterms, the 7pm NEP had a 3935 Democratic/Republican weighting mix. The Democrats won the NEP by 5543%. But the weights were changed to 3836 in the Final NEP in order to match the 5246% recorded vote; the Dem 12% margin was cut in half. Once again, the 'Voted 2004' weights were transformed: from Bush/Kerry 4745 at 7pm to 4943 in the Final. The landslide was denied; 10-20 Dem seats were stolen.

    The dead heat claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media is a canard unless they are factoring fraud into their models and not telling us. The media desperately wants a horserace, and so they fail to adjust the polls for undecided and newly registered voters. They avoid McCains gaffes, flip-flops and plagiarisms, while he supports the most unpopular president in history.

    Polling data source:
    Electoral-vote.com
    RealClearPolitics.com


    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

    Last
    Aggregate
    5-poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Expected

    9/17/2008
    Average
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     

    Obama
    McCain
    46.54
    45.28
    47.00
    44.80
    51.45
    48.55
    51.92
    48.08
    319
    219


    2004 Final
     
     
    75% UVA
     
     

    Kerry
    Bush
    47.88
    46.89
    47.80
    46.60
    51.80
    48.20
    51.77
    48.23
    337
    201



    Projected Recorded Vote   (assuming fraud)

    Obama Vote Share      after adjustment for:

    Popular Vote
    Electoral Vote
    48.9%
    235
    3% -
    4% -
    Uncounted Votes
    Switched Votes


    Sensitivity Analysis Vote Share Impact on Electoral Vote

    Undecided Voter Allocation Scenario
     
     
    Base Case

    Obama
    40%
    50%
    60%
    70%
    80%


    Projected 2-Party Vote Share

    Obama
    McCain
    49.8
    50.2
    50.6
    49.4
    51.45
    48.55
    52.3
    47.7
    53.1
    46.9


    MoE
    Obama popular vote win probability

    2.0 %
    2.5 %
    3.0 %
    35.7
    42.7
    45.1
    89.2
    73.2
    66.0
    99.8
    92.2
    82.8
    100.0
    98.7
    93.1
    100.0
    99.9
    97.8


    Obama Expected Electoral Vote

    Average
    Median
    279.0
    280
    299.9
    301
    319.1
    320
    338.3
    338
    358.2
    357

    Maximum
    Minimum
    362
    177
    372
    215
    399
    230
    416
    264
    427
    278


    Obama Electoral Vote Win Probability

    Trial Wins
    Probability
    3240
    64.8
    4435
    88.7
    4900
    98.00
    4994
    99.9
    5000
    100.0


    95% Confidence Level
    Upper
    Lower
    330
    228
    347
    253
    363
    276
    380
    297
    402
    315


    States Won
    Obama
     
    23
     
    25
     
    26
     
    29
     
    30
     

     





     

     
    Refresh | +4 Recommendations Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
    opihimoimoi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 12:41 AM
    Response to Original message
    1. Much needed good news...thanks for the post....
    :toast:
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 12:51 AM
    Response to Original message
    2. Exhaustive cross-tabulation
    of multiple independent data points is yet another great step forward for this part of history.
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    WarbirdForObama Donating Member (342 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:16 AM
    Response to Original message
    3. PLEASE, PLEASE,PLEASE
    Let this be true!

    No opportunity for Rethuglican nonsense. No challenges.

    I'm running out of fingers to cross.
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
    BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:19 AM
    Response to Original message
    4. Great info. thanks for posting...
    Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
     
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