9/4 ELECTION MODEL ( TIA ): WHY BOTH NATIONAL (OBAMA 54.5%) AND STATE (334 EV) POLLS MATTER! - x

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: September 4

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

9/04/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 46.39 (51.27) 
 44.09 (48.73) 
 49.00 (53.96) 
 41.80 (46.04) 
52.10
47.90
54.52
45.48
334
204

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
Hotline/FD
USA/Gallup
CBS News

CNN
CNN
Hotline/FD
USA/Gallup
ABC/WP

FOX
CBS/NYT
NBC/WSJ
Bloomberg
Quinnipiac

RV vs LV
Poll Averages


Post-Convention
Pre-Convention
Total Change
Share of Other

Date
            
9/03
9/03
8/31
8/31
8/31

8/31
8/24
8/24
8/23
8/22

8/20
8/19
8/18
8/18
8/17

Size
            
3000 LV
2771 RV
805 RV
1835 RV
781 RV

927 RV
909 RV
1022 RV
765 LV
1000 RV

900 RV
869 RV
1005 RV
1248 RV
1547 LV

LV avg
RV avg
Total

8/31–9/04
8/17–8/24

MoE
            
1.79%
1.86%
3.45%
2.29%
3.51%

3.22%
3.25%
3.07%
3.54%
3.10%

3.27%
3.32%
3.09%
2.77%
2.49%

Obama
            
50
49
48
50
48

49
47
44
48
49

42
45
45
45
47

48.3
46.8
47.1

49.0
45.8
3.2
92.1

McCain
            
45
42
39
43
40

48
47
40
45
43

39
42
42
43
42

44.0
42.3
42.7

42.8
42.6
0.3
7.9

Other
            
5
9
13
7
12

3
6
16
7
8

19
13
13
12
11

7.7
10.9
10.3

8.2
11.7
-3.5

Spread
            
5
7
9
7
8

1
0
4
3
6

3
3
3
2
5

4.3
4.4
4.4

6.2
3.2
2.9

 

Obama
            
49.0
48.8
48.4
47.6
47.2

47.4
46.0
45.6
45.8
45.2

44.8
44.6
44.6
44.8
44.4

McCain
            
41.8
42.4
43.4
43.6
44.0

44.6
42.8
41.8
42.2
41.8

41.6
43.0
42.2
42.4
41.4

|

Obama
            
54.0
53.5
52.7
52.2
51.8

51.5
51.8
52.2
52.0
52.0

51.9
50.9
51.4
51.4
51.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
93.9
97.0
83.7

82.3
86.1
91.8
87.1
89.2

86.7
70.5
81.0
83.5
91.5

 

Obama
            
54.5
54.1
53.3
52.9
52.5

52.2
52.7
53.2
53.0
53.0

53.0
52.0
52.5
52.5
52.9

McCain
            
45.5
45.9
46.7
47.1
47.5

47.8
47.3
46.8
47.0
47.0

47.0
48.0
47.5
47.5
47.1

Spread
         
9.0
8.2
6.6
5.8
5.0

4.4
5.4
6.3
6.0
6.0

5.9
4.1
5.0
5.0
5.8

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
97.0
99.3
91.7

91.0
95.0
97.8
95.1
97.1

96.2
88.5
94.5
96.0
98.9

 

 

The Obama surge in the national polls continues. He leads the National projection model by nine points, 54.5–45.5%. He leads the State model by 52.1–47.9% with 334 expected electoral votes. Since state polls lag the nationals by 2–3 weeks, the State vs. National vote share projection Trend should tighten. Obama could expect 400 electoral votes within the next few weeks — just in time for another October Surprise.

The “dead heat” claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media is a canard — unless they are factoring fraud into their models and not telling us. The media desperately wants a horserace, and so they fail to adjust the polls for undecided and newly registered voters. They avoid McCain’s gaffes, flip-flops and plagiarisms, while he supports the most unpopular president in history.

And now they say that the race will tighten, because Palin will rally the base, has a strong personality and the executive experience that Obama lacks. And on top of all that, she understands Putin, because Alaska is near Russia. That’s like saying you’re qualified to be a heart surgeon, because there’s a hospital across the street from your house.

In a true democracy, this election would be a slam dunk.
...

Full update: 9/4 ELECTION MODEL: WHY BOTH NATIONAL (OBAMA 54.5%) AND STATE (334 EV) POLLS MATTER! (TIA)

[SheilaT]

1. I'm guessing that in the

"sample size" column LV means Likely Voters and RV means Registered Voters.

I wonder how they are figuring out who is actually a likely voter.

I also wonder if the polling is correctly picking up what may well be a huge number of younger, first-time voters who are almost uniformly for Obama. Indeed, a lot of those young people have been strongly influencing their elders to vote for Obama.

The other amazing thing, as I look over that chart, is that the most recent Rasmussen and Gallup polls give Obama a 100% win probability. Wow.