Kos Diarist: Say Goodbye to Clinton's Double Digit Win in Ohio

[mod mom]

Goodbye to Clinton's double digit Ohio win
by svotaw1992
Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:25:34 PM PDT
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/9/19758/84424/696/512899


I didn't see this posted anywhere, but Ohio has official results up for the primary. The numbers have changed significantly.
* svotaw1992's diary :: ::
According to unofficial old results on RealClearPolitics.com and thegreenpapers.com, the race was won by Clinton 1,212,362 to 982,489 for a difference of 229,873 (or 10.4%).
The new official results are 1,259,620 to 1,055,769 for a difference of 203,851 (I had to add the districts up individually since I couldn't find statewide totals anywhere). That's a change of 26,022 toward Obama. The lead for Clinton is at a final margin of 8.8%, so I guess she didn't get that double digit victory in Ohio after all. Looks like there were lots of provisionals and absentee for Obama that didn't get counted on election night.
West Virginia is also coming up. With 660,000 resgistered Democrats and assuming a huge turnout, we get about 300,000 votes. If Clinton wins by 20%, that's a 60,000 vote margin. She's already lost a big chunk of that (26,000) with the Ohio official update. That's means the popular vote totals won't change much after West Virginia vote on Tuesday (for those who are even paying attention).
UPDATE
For those of you asking, there were just under 100,000 provisional ballots accepted out of 123,000 cast. So yes, this change is reasonable.
Wow... first time on the rec list. I was just passing time on a lazy Friday afternoon at work. I hope someone double checks my numbers. ;-)
(hattip to northhanger for verifying the numbers from the SoS site)
UPDATE2
For those of you who are curious, the West Virginia Democratic primary turnout in 2004 was 252,000.

[Yael]

1. Delegate allocations were 74-67. A whopping 7 of them

[mod mom]

2. Have you seen the provisional broken out separately?

[Yael]

3. Here ya go!

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Ohio_2008_presidential_primary_and_superdelegates

[mod mom]

4. That is the delegate count but here is provisionals:

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/ElectionsVoter/Results2008.aspx?Section=3606

I can't open the expanded detailed file-anyone else? I am especially interested in results in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), Hamilton (Cincinnati), Lucas (Toledo) , Montgomery (Dayton), Summit (Akron),

[Yael]

5. Sorry -- didn't understand thats what you wanted.

I don't have, but uploaded that link to Google (its an Excel file).

Try this: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pbbO5K4njsUvn-uaWQEDjdA

[mod mom]

6. Thanks, here's the summary from what I could read:

Provisional Ballot Summary from March 4 , 2008 OH Primary

Of interest on Provisionals in Ohio (I concentrated on the biggest provisional counties which coincided with large urban areas):

Summit County (Akron) has ALL of their Provisionals count: 5152/5152 while...

Cuyahoga(Cleveland) had 18647/23904 or 78%
Franklin (Columbus) had 16,349/19,963 or 81.9%
Hamilton (Cincinnati) had 9606/12,192 or 78.8%
Montgomery (Dayton) had 5694/6906 or 82.5%
Lucas (Toledo) had 3419/5251 or 65.1 %

total all 88 counties: 81% or 99,982/123,432

source: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/ElectionsVoter/Results2008.aspx?Section=3606

[mod mom]

7. I am still trying to determine how to see how they broke for Obama v HRC.

If you can open the linked excel spread sheet does it indicate this breakdown?

I hate to sound stupid but I got a new Mac for XMas w leopard I can no longer open excels and usually wait for my brother who works for Apple to visit to figure out how to do stuff (I'm a luddite at heart :blush: )

[Yael]

8. I put the whole thing on the Google link above

You can open it with your Mac

[mod mom]

9. I did get that thanks-so I guess they don't have the results Obama v Clinton posted.