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The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:08 PM
Original message
The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 06:08 PM by TruthIsAll
The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation.


These are the basic results.

1. E-M (WPE) and the Bush 51.23% 2-party vote are impossible
to obtain, given the overall R=53% response rate, alpha= 1.12
(56 Kerry/ 50 Bush) and 1250 precinct partisanship aggregate
weightings. 

2. There is NO feasible solution which can satisfy the E-M
constraints.

3. Minimum alpha required is an implausible 1.15 (57.5/50)

4. Minimum High Bush precinct alpha is an implausible 1.40
(70/50)

5. High and moderate Kerry precinct alpha = 1.066 (53.5/50 
which essentially matches the exit poll result)

6. High and moderate Bush precinct alpha = 1.17. Non-partisan
precinct alpha is the same 1.17.

7. Kerry won exit poll with 52.16%, a 63.1- 57.9mm vote
margin.

8. Bush needed to win 54.9% of the 47% who refused to be
polled, in order to achieve his 51.23% vote.

9. The results match E-M partisanship WPE's to within .01%.

10. The optimization input consisted only of the limited data
provided by E-M.

11. Assuming a 1.0% MoE, the odds are 1 in 62,956,149,427
that Bush would go from 47.84% in the poll to 51.23% in the
vote.

**************************************

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/19/05 5:23 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive
the  final vote using aggregate exit poll response
data.							
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints: 					
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average 					
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote 				
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average 					
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)													

	VOTE 	POLL	DEV
Kerry 48.77%	52.16%	-3.39%				
Bush	51.23%	47.84%	3.39%				
Actual Bush	51.23%						
	
Probability: 1 in	62,956,149,427	
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.150						

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90		
Max	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Min	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Max	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
							
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP.	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.0%
Dev	-2.0%	5.8%	-4.5%	-4.7%	10.0%		0.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.150
Dev	21.7%	-0.4%	2.1%	-4.0%	-13.4%		0.0%
ln (A)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.1398

VOTES							
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
POLL 							
Kerry	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
							
WPE	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.15
ln(a)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.14
AvgDev	22%	0%	2%	-4%	-13%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	244	262	80	57		663
Pct	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	6	110	139	47	44		345
Pct	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	14	134	123	32	13		317
Pct	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	171	278	85	33		587
Pct	49.0%	41.2%	51.5%	51.7%	37.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	4	64	124	46	26		264
Pct	19.8%	37.5%	44.7%	53.8%	77.3%		45.09%
Bush	16	107	154	39	8		323
Pct	80.2%	62.5%	55.3%	46.2%	22.7%		54.91%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	10	174	263	93	69		610
Pct	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	30	241	277	72	21		640
Pct	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	16.83	25.47	9.04	6.71		59.01
Bush	2.90	23.35	26.80	6.93	2.00		61.99
Diff	-1.94	-6.52	-1.34	2.10	4.71		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.16	18.05	27.69	9.51	6.70		63.11
Bush	2.71	22.12	24.58	6.46	2.01		57.89
Diff	-1.55	-4.07	3.11	3.05	4.68		5.22
							
VOTE DEVIATION							
Kerry 	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01		-4.10
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-50.0%	-16.2%	-2.6%	13.2%	54.1%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-40.0%	-10.1%	5.9%	19.1%	53.8%		4.31%
Diff	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%

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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick for TIA!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. GRAPH: K/B (alpha) by partisanship; linear vs. cubic fit
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. HERE'S WHERE THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN...
Of the 4.10 million votes which red-shifted from Kerry to Bush,
3.45 million were in these partisanship groups:

Moderate Bush: 1.23 million
Non-partisan : 2.22 million

Of the rest, 0.66 million were lost in High Bush and moderate Kerry precincts. High Kerry precincts were virtually fraud-free.

Kerry won this election by 5.22 million votes:
Kerry: 63.11 million
Bush: 57.89

The recorded vote:
Bush 61.99 million
Kerry 59.01


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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. So what does this mean?
Can you give a brief written summary of what the statical
analysis of this data shows?

And what #s lead you to that conclusion.

thank you
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Basically...
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 06:06 PM by TruthIsAll
1. The rBr hypothesis is not supported by data provided by E-M; in fact, the optimizer shows that it is even more implausible than when it was first proposed (without any supporting evidence) as the cause of the exit poll discrepancies.

2. To believe rBr, one must believe that Bush voters were EXTREMELY reluctant to participate in the exit polls in high and moderate Bush and non-partisan precincts, but were NOT reluctant to do so in moderate/high Kerry precincts.

3. If you disbelieve rBr, you must believe Bush could get very, very, very lucky and beat astronomical odds, overcoming a solid Kerry 4% lead in the exit poll (1.0% MoE) to win the 2-party vote by 2.5%.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thank you ......
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 07:00 PM by Botany
..... We might have an answer about one of the mathematical impossibilities
in Ohio ....... 19,000 votes were loaded into the Miami County totals after
the polls had closed (pg. 58 & 59 Conyers report) at the exact % of votes
that Kerry got in the pervious vote totals ..... again one of your one in a million
odds that this happened by random chance .......

Reports are now surfacing that Ken Blackwell had computers that were inter-
active with the central tabulators ..... in other words not only could
they receive vote totals but they input data into the tabulators too.

Thank you again for the clarification on your post.

<In March 2004, Blackwell had issued a release celebrating the fact that the Secretary of States office for the first time had the capacity for instant data exchange with the county boards of elections....>









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MadeinOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #5
15. That would answer it alright......
Hey Ohioans, why can't we push prosecutor Baxter or someone around here to search Blackwell's office and dump all the files on his computer?
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. kick! :-)
:-)
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. kick.nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kick, tying together studies / opening them for debate is good
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. A kick for the truth. n/t
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:49 AM
Response to Original message
13. Kick nt
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-29-05 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. back to the top --- this is a kick
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byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
16. The Socially Irritable but Glittering Mind of Truth Marches On.
It felt so good to see this.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
17. Wow, this guy really knows what he's talking aobut ! Kick
:kick:
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