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The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:08 PM
Original message
The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 06:08 PM by TruthIsAll
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick for TIA!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. GRAPH: K/B (alpha) by partisanship; linear vs. cubic fit
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. HERE'S WHERE THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN...
Of the 4.10 million votes which red-shifted from Kerry to Bush,
3.45 million were in these partisanship groups:

Moderate Bush: 1.23 million
Non-partisan : 2.22 million

Of the rest, 0.66 million were lost in High Bush and moderate Kerry precincts. High Kerry precincts were virtually fraud-free.

Kerry won this election by 5.22 million votes:
Kerry: 63.11 million
Bush: 57.89

The recorded vote:
Bush 61.99 million
Kerry 59.01


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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. So what does this mean?
Can you give a brief written summary of what the statical
analysis of this data shows?

And what #s lead you to that conclusion.

thank you
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Basically...
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 06:06 PM by TruthIsAll
1. The rBr hypothesis is not supported by data provided by E-M; in fact, the optimizer shows that it is even more implausible than when it was first proposed (without any supporting evidence) as the cause of the exit poll discrepancies.

2. To believe rBr, one must believe that Bush voters were EXTREMELY reluctant to participate in the exit polls in high and moderate Bush and non-partisan precincts, but were NOT reluctant to do so in moderate/high Kerry precincts.

3. If you disbelieve rBr, you must believe Bush could get very, very, very lucky and beat astronomical odds, overcoming a solid Kerry 4% lead in the exit poll (1.0% MoE) to win the 2-party vote by 2.5%.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thank you ......
Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 07:00 PM by Botany
..... We might have an answer about one of the mathematical impossibilities
in Ohio ....... 19,000 votes were loaded into the Miami County totals after
the polls had closed (pg. 58 & 59 Conyers report) at the exact % of votes
that Kerry got in the pervious vote totals ..... again one of your one in a million
odds that this happened by random chance .......

Reports are now surfacing that Ken Blackwell had computers that were inter-
active with the central tabulators ..... in other words not only could
they receive vote totals but they input data into the tabulators too.

Thank you again for the clarification on your post.

<In March 2004, Blackwell had issued a release celebrating the fact that the Secretary of States office for the first time had the capacity for instant data exchange with the county boards of elections....>









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MadeinOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #5
15. That would answer it alright......
Hey Ohioans, why can't we push prosecutor Baxter or someone around here to search Blackwell's office and dump all the files on his computer?
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-19-05 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. kick! :-)
:-)
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. kick.nt
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kick, tying together studies / opening them for debate is good
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.
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pauldp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-25-05 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. A kick for the truth. n/t
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-27-05 08:49 AM
Response to Original message
13. Kick nt
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-29-05 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. back to the top --- this is a kick
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byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
16. The Socially Irritable but Glittering Mind of Truth Marches On.
It felt so good to see this.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-31-05 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
17. Wow, this guy really knows what he's talking aobut ! Kick
:kick:
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