What are the odds?

[TruthIsAll]

1. 42 of 50 states deviating to Bush from the exit polls?

1 in 1,718,869
=1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)


2. ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone deviating to Bush from the exit polls?

1 in 4,194,304
=BINOMDIST(22,22,0.5,FALSE)


3. Bush going from 48-51% in the National exit poll to 51-48% in the vote?

1 in 696,717,814
=NORMDIST(48/99,51/99,0.01/1.96, TRUE)


4. 16 of 50 states deviating to Bush beyond the exit poll MoE, none to Kerry?

1 in 19,083,049,268,519
=1-BINOMDIST(15,50,0.025,TRUE)



5. 86 of 88 touchscreens flipping Kerry votes to Bush?
1.23689E-23 =BINOMDIST(86,88,0.5,FALSE)
2.84343E-25 =BINOMDIST(87,88,0.5,FALSE)
3.23117E-27 =BINOMDIST(88,88,0.5,FALSE)
..........
1.26565E-23

1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000

[Aussie_expat]

1. WOW ......

If you would have only posted this valuable information months ago.

[TruthIsAll]

2. I did. Where were you?

.

[uppityperson]

11. Think that was sarcasm

Aussie expat-make sure you use the sarcasm smilie next time. :sarcasm:

At least I'm assuming it was sarcasm. If it were me, it would've been sarcasm. I hope it was sarcasm.

[Aussie_expat]

13. Thanks Uppity

I'll remember that next time:toast:

Sincerly,

Aussie_expat
Department of Redundancy Department

[IndyOp]

3. I haven't been posting in a while, but I was posting like mad last

Novemeber & December (when this Election Results Forum saved my sanity) and I can hereby attest, with my hand on - well, my copy of Howard Zinn's "A People's History of the United States" - that TruthIsAll has been posting stats on the impossibility of a * win since sometime on, I think, November 3rd, 2004. Go TIA!

:kick:

[Botany]

4. Yes but Iraqis are coming to Ohio to study democracy ......

..... it had to have been fair. LOL

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1847885

[dogday]

5. And everyone is just hiding under a rug

noone comes forward with any facts or figures about the election....

[patrice]

6. Could you educate us just a little about the general assumptions here?

I trust you and all . . . . I'm just curious. What are these BINOMDIST, NORMDIST; different kinds of distribtions? What's the stuff in parantheses?

[TruthIsAll]

9. No assumptions, patrice. Just facts.

BINOMDIST and NORMDIST are Excel probability distribution functions.

The data observations are input into the functions to calculate the probabilities. Just type the formulas exactly as you see them into a cell.

While in Excel, you can get Help on the underlying mathematics.

Here is a simple example:
What are the odds of 10 coin flips all coming up heads?
That's 10 trials and 10 successes, each with a .5 probability.

In excel, enter the following:
=binomdist(10,10,.5,false)

The probability is 0.000976563, or 1 in 1024

Now what is the probability that ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone would deviate to Bush from the exit polls to the vote?
I already showed you that.

[patrice]

10. Thanks, I will try this!

. . . after I go out and whack the weeds around my roses.

[Andromeda]

7. You have worked very hard...

posting the mathematical probabilities of a Bush defeat and I think your conclusions are amazing.

[Andromeda]

8. This is just totally amazing.

What's even more surprising is that when you do the figures it's very clear that Bush didn't win.

[kster]

12. kick.nt

[tommcintyre]

14. kick

[Melissa G]

15. kick

[kster]

16. kick