The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)

[TruthIsAll]

National Exit Poll Time Line

Preliminary 1:  Nov. 2,  7:58pm, 11027 respondents
Preliminary 2:  Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 ""
Final 3:        Nov. 3,  2:04pm, 13660 ""

There was NO CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE OF THE WEIGHTED NATIONAL
PERCENTAGES after 2020 additional respondents were
interviewed between 7:58pm and 12:22am.

  Time Sample Bush  Kerry     Nader
 7:58pm 11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
12:22am 13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%

But look what happens between 12:22am and 2:04pm (after just
613 additional respondents):
 2:04pm 13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

Kerry gained in the Party ID split between 7:58pm and
12:22am, going from 38 Dem/36 Rep/26 Independent to 38 Dem/35
Rep/27 Independent (2020 respondents). The effect of this
slight change was to increase his national weighted average
from 50.24% to 50.69%.
 
 Time  Sample Bush Kerry	Nader
 7:58pm 11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
12:22am 13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%

But the next day, the Party ID weights mysteriously changed
to 37/37/26 when the final 613 respondents were sampled -
quite a feat.
 2:04pm 13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Here's the progression of the exit poll tranformation from
Kerry to Bush, from left to right, literally and
figuratively.

From an initial 11,027 on CNN to a pristine 13,047 on WP to a
soiled 13660 on CNN.

	CNN	7:58pm	11027	Sample		WP	12:22am	13047	Sample	CNN	2:04pm	13660	Sample
     
	Mix1	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix2	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix3	Bush	Kerry	Nader
GENDER
Male 	46.0%	51%	47%	1%		46%	52%	47%	1%		46%	55%	44%	0
Female 	54.0%	45%	54%	1%		54%	45%	54%	1%		54%	48%	51%	0
	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
														
EDUCATION														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No H.S.	4.0%	47%	52%	1%		4%	47%	52%	1%		4%	49%	50%	0
HSGrad22.0%	48%	51%	1%		22%	48%	51%	1%		22%	52%	47%	0
Colleg31.0%	51%	47%	2%		31%	51%	47%	1%		32%	54%	46%	0
ColGrd 26.0%	50.5%	48.5%	1%		26%	50%	48%	1%		26%	52%	46%	1%
Postg	17.0%	40%	58%	2%		17%	40%	58%	2%		16%	44%	55%	1%
	100%	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%		100%	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%		100%	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
																										
RACE AND
GENDER	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
WMale	36.0%	58%	41%	1%		36%	58%	41%	1%		36%	62%	37%	0%
WFem 41.0%	52%	47%	1%		41%	52%	47%	1%		41%	55%	44%	0%
NonWM 10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	28%	69%	1%		10%	30%	67%	1%
NonWF 13.0%	22%	77%	1%		13%	22%	77%	1%		12%	24%	75%	1%
	100%	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%		100%	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%		99%	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
														
AGE	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
18-29 	17.0%	43%	56%	1%		17%	43%	56%	1%		17%	45%	54%	0
30-44 	27.0%	50%	49%	1%		27%	50%	49%	1%		29%	53%	46%	1%
45-59 	30.0%	47%	51%	2%		30%	47%	51%	1%		30%	51%	48%	0
60+ 	26.0%	51%	48%	1%		26%	51%	48%	1%		24%	54%	46%	0
	100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%		100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
														
INCOME	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
0-$15K 	9.0%	33%	66%	1%		9%	33%	66%	1%		8%	36%	63%	0
$15-30 	15.0%	39%	59%	2%		15%	39%	59%	1%		15%	42%	57%	0
$30-50 	22.0%	47%	52%	1%		22%	47%	52%	1%		22%	49%	50%	0
50-75 	23.0%	53%	45%	2%		23%	53%	45%	1%		23%	56%	43%	0
-100 	13.0%	50%	49%	1%		13%	50%	49%	0%		14%	55%	45%	0
-150 	11.0%	53%	45%	2%		11%	53%	45%	2%		11%	57%	42%	1%
-200 	4.0%	53%	47%	0		4%	53%	47%	0%		4%	58%	42%	0
200+ 	4.0%	58%	41%	1%		4%	58%	41%	1%		3%	63%	35%	0
	101%	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%		101%	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%		100%	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
														
														
IDEOLOGYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib 	22.0%	12%	87%	1%		22%	12%	86%	1%		21%	13%	85%	1%
Mod 	45.0%	42%	57%	1%		45%	41%	57%	1%		45%	45%	54%	0
Con 	33.0%	82%	16%	1%		33%	82%	16%	1%		34%	84%	15%	0
	100%	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%		100%	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%		100%	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
														
RELIGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Prot	53.0%	56%	43%	1%		53%	56%	43%	1%		53%	59%	40%	0
Cath 	27.0%	49%	50%	1%		27%	49%	50%	1%		27%	52%	47%	0
Jewish	3.0%	23%	77%	0		3%	23%	77%	0%		3%	25%	74%	0
Other 	7.0%	20%	75%	5%		7%	20%	75%	4%		7%	23%	74%	1%
None 	10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	29%	70%	1%		10%	31%	67%	1%
	100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%		100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%		100%	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
														
														
MILITARYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	18.0%	55%	43%	2%		18%	55%	43%	1%		18%	57%	41%	1%
No 	82.0%	46%	53%	1%		82%	46%	53%	1%		82%	49%	50%	1%
	100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%		100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%		100%	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
														
														
WHEN
DECIDED	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	6.0%	41%	54%	5%		6%	40%	53%	5%		5%	45%	52%	1%
3Days 3.0%	42%	54%	4%		3%	41%	53%	4%		4%	42%	55%	1%
Week 	2.0%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	0
Month	10.0%	38%	61%	1%		10%	38%	60%	1%		10%	44%	54%	1%
Before79.0%	50%	50%	0%		79%	50%	50%	0%		79%	53%	46%	0%
	100%	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%		100%	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%		100%	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
														
REGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	22.0%	40%	58%	1%		22%	41%	58%	1%		22%	43%	56%	1%
Midwest	25.0%	49%	50%	1%		26%	49%	50%	1%		26%	51%	48%	0
South	31.0%	54%	45%	1%		31%	54%	44%	1%		32%	58%	42%	0
West	21.0%	45%	53%	1%		21%	45%	53%	1%		20%	49%	50%	1%
	99%	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%		100%	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
														
														
PARTY
ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38.0%	9%	90%	1%		38%	9%	90%	1%		37%	11%	89%	0
Rep 	36.0%	92%	7%	1%		35%	92%	7%	0%		37%	93%	6%	0
Ind	26.0%	45%	52%	2%		27%	45%	52%	2%		26%	48%	49%	1%
	100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%		100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%		100%	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
														
														
VOTED IN
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.0%	39%	59%	1%		17%	39%	59%	1%		17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38.0%	8%	91%	1%		38%	8%	91%	1%		37%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	41.0%	90%	9%	0%		41%	90%	9%	0%		43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	4.0%	13%	65%	16%		4%	13%	65%	16%		3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%



Exit Poll Comparison Summary

Poll   Bush	Kerry    Nader

Gender			
11027	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%
13047	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
13660	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
			
Education			
11027	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%
13047	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
13660	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
			
Race/Gender			
11027	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%
13047	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
13660	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
			
Age			
11027	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%
13047	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
			
Income			
11027	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%
13047	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%
13660	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
			
			
Ideology			
11027	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%
13047	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
13660	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
			
			
Religion			
11027	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%
13047	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
13660	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
			
Military			
11027	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%
13047	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
13660	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
			
When Decided			
11027	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%
13047	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
13660	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
			
Region			
11027	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%
13047	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
			
			
Party ID			
11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
			
			
Voted in 2000			
11027	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13047	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13660	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%
			
Average			
11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%
13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

[TruthIsAll]

1. Links

http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

http:

//media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

[TruthIsAll]

2. No change from 11027 to 13047; reversal from 13047 to 13660...

.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Keep kicking until someone posts..

....

[kster]

4. kick........nt

[Carolab]

5. And when was Rove on the phone?

When did he announce to * that everything was "okay"? Wasn't it about 12:30 a.m. CT?

[bleever]

6. Kick, because WHY did mathematicians give us something

mathematically impossible to digest?

WHY "adjust" the exit polls?

Just come out front and say, we have margins of error, and this was outside of the margin of error.

NOW, having fudged the exit poll results, they STILL have to claim "margin of error", but it's kinda late. Why fudge if the MOE will protect you?

And if the MOE won't protect your credibility, why not just say that the MOE was miscalculated?

Why the fudging of the final "exit poll"?

This is the proverbial Dead Skunk in the Middle of the Road.