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Curious election results in Clermont County, Ohio

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nodictators Donating Member (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 10:58 AM
Original message
Curious election results in Clermont County, Ohio
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 11:14 AM by nodictators
  • Kerry did not win a single precinct of Clermonts 191 precincts.

  • Judge Connally won 5 Clermont precincts even though she had a low-budget campaign and her opponent, Moyer, was the sitting Ohio Chief Justice and had a well-financed campaign..

  • Connally had more actual votes than Kerry in 161 of Clermonts 191 precincts.

  • There were more than 72,000 total votes in the Chief Justice race and more than 87,000 total votes in the presidential race.

  • Countywide, Connally had 4,146 more votes than Kerry, even though Connallys chief justice race had 15,000 fewer total votes than the presidential race.

  • Kerrys percentage of the precinct presidential votes has a moderate negative correlation (-0.536) with the precinct turnout percentage. In other words, in precincts where Kerry had a higher percentage of the presidential vote, he tended to have a lower percentage turnout.


Note: These facts give support to very recent allegations about the elections in Clermont County.

Clermont County Election Results 2004
http://www.clermontelections.org/default.php?section=re...

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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. Hopefully, someone has made Conyers, Arnebeck, Bonifaz & others...
....aware of these facts.

Would be helpful if you provided a link to the sources of the numbers.

Thank you.



BE THE BUSH OPPOSITION; 24/7

http://www.zonaeuropa.com/01467.htm
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
2. TruthisAll should see this!
:-)
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
3. yeah, this is the county that put stickers on their ballots to nullify
yeah, this is the county that put stickers on their ballots to nullify Kerry votes. I think most have already seen this but if not:

http://rawstory.com/news/2005/index.php?p=7
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. URL: Clermont & etc.- Greens recount summary
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. Check out this DU board
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

This is mostly about the ballot order and multiple precincts located at the same polling place, but I bring up much of the same information you have.

I have an Excel file with all the information. If you're interested, just PM me.

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nodictators Donating Member (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. Thanks, but I think I've got it
I'm assuming its the jqjacobs xls files

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:00 PM
Response to Original message
5. I would call that correlation significant.
The Turnout % : Kerry % correlations are:

Statewide = -0.076

Counties sorted by voting type:

Op-Scan counties = 0.2560
E-Vote counties is -0.3407
All Punch = -0.0794
SysPunch = -0.2823
Triad Punch = -0.0530

Counties sorted by vendors:

ES&S = -0.2900
Triad = 0.2606
Others = -0.5403

Clermont turnout was 69.95%, Bush vote was 70.09%, Kerry vote was 28.76%, percent of state vote population is 1.62% (185,799).

In Cuyahoga County (1/10th of Ohio), the precinct turnout % : Kerry % correlation = -0.457. An interesting analysis here would be the results impact if the turnout had been equal in Kerry strongholds! Significant, I suspect.
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nodictators Donating Member (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Here are a few more Kerry% -- Turnout% correlations
Also in SW Ohio (Devil's Playground?)

Warren County: -0.522
Butler County: -0.692

And in a large county in NW Ohio where Kerry had 60% of the vote:

Lucas County: -0.713


Correlations are sometimes tricky. However, with that in mind, a possible interpretation might be that some Kerry ballots were "disappeared" in precincts where Kerry ran his strongest.

Of course, some of this effect could be due to his voters, but it's hard to see how all of it be due to low voter turnout in Kerry strongholds.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Voter suppression played a role in the Ohio correlations, plus ...
The Kerry strongholds are large urban counties, adding to the significance of the correlations in those areas.

In Florida,

E-Touch: % Cast : % Kerry = -0.584
Op-Scan: % Cast : % Kerry = +0.159
State: % Cast : % Kerry = +0.073

Nevada Counties: % Cast : % Kerry = -0.0076

Nevada Correlations
% Kerry : % Early = 0.2143
% Kerry : % Election Day = -0.1131
% Kerry : % Absentee = -0.346


New Mexico Counties: % Cast : % Kerry = -0.234

South Dakota Counties: % Cast : % Kerry = -0.685
South Dakota Counties: % Cast : % Daschle = -0.614

California Counties: % Cast : % Kerry = +0.2713

Iowa Counties: % Cast : % Kerry = +0.198

These are the only ones I've done so far. It would be interesting to see comparisons for counties in all other states.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
6. Congressman Conyers 28 Jan 2005 letter to the FBI includes concerns...
....about Clermont County. Letter just posted at Raw Story:

http://rawstory.rawprint.com/105/conyers_fbi_letter_128...

Peace.

TBO;24/7
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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
7. Is this the county that put the stickers on the ballots?
Because if that's the case...WOW!
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yes it is.
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