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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 02:27 AM
Original message
Florida: Funny Vote Patterns
Some here and elsewhere have brought up the issue of electronic vote tally manipulation. Assuming there was fraud of this type and via a code to handle everything automatically, the chances of leaving a fingerprint would be very high.

A lot would depend on the skill of the coder involved. The more advanced he is, the more difficult or impossible it would be to detect. If the coder/thief is a Rethug, then his skill is most likely-Ill leave that up to DU ;)

IF this kind of fraud was used it could be a matter of deciphering the numbers to expose the crime. As most know, spotting patterns in the numbers would be the first step towards this goal.

Well, Ive found clear patterns in the vote totals for many counties and they seem to come in pairs. These patterns may or may not be random. The patterns Im describing are matching party percentages (Democrat & Republican).

As someone kindly pointed out in my previous post on DU, the percentages are not voter turnout. Voter turnout is based on the amount of votes a candidate received from the *total overall* votes.

The percentages listed are calculated by the amount of votes a candidate received and the *total registered voters of his party* for the precinct. ie: =(candidate votes)/(total registered voters of same precinct)*100

Unfortunately, my experience with algorithms and statistics is limited. Maybe a few more eyeballs can spot something that was missed.

EXAMPLES
Search counties here: http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_county.php

Hernando: Precincts 36 and 37 share 50.3%

Baker: Precincts 4C and 4D share 13.3%

Hillsborough: Precincts 519 and 520 share 61.6%
Hillsborough: Precincts 433 and 434 share 74.4%

Dade: Precincts 143 and 144 share 69.82%
Dade: Precincts 407 and 408 share 56.3%
Dade: Precincts 429 and 430 share 58%
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 05:02 AM
Response to Original message
1. Kick for Bill Bored--he was talking about manipulating percentages
I'll search for the thread...
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The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 05:08 AM
Response to Original message
2. o
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keepthemhonest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 09:12 AM
Response to Original message
3. interesting.
I like looking for patterns.
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indigoblue Donating Member (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
4. This has to be a smoking gun.
Each pair of precincts 143 & 144 and 429 & 430 in the Dade County shares the same polling station. Both polling stations are churches!

LIST OF POLLING PLACES FOR GENERAL ELECTION

PCT., LOCATION, ADDRESS

143, FIRST CHURCH OF NORTH MIAMI, 1200 NE 135 ST
144, FIRST CHURCH OF NORTH MIAMI, 1200 NE 135 ST

429, IGLESIA ADVENTISTA EBENEZER, 6566 SW 33 ST
430, IGLESIA ADVENTISTA EBENEZER, 6566 SW 33 ST

Source: http://elections.metro-dade.com/MDPPLIST.pdf

None of other pairs of precincts that shared the same polling station showed this pattern. This proves that some churches are involved in the election fraud at least in Florida.

:grr: :grr: :grr:


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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Great work indigo.
I'll import those names to make it easier to track.
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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. A guess
I wonder if the others are churches. Have you checked out Pasco County?
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
6. Can these precincts be recounted?
Or is there no paper ballot trail?

Look also at Hillsboro 119 and 121 for example where Bush got 77.2% in both.

I haven't looked at all of these, but actually, you would expect to see similar percentages in same-county precincts, and when you look at their actual vote margins, they are similar but not exact, which would be too much of a coincidence.

I applaud this recount effort though. Can anyone do it in FL, or just FL residents? Can any of the counties you list be recounted?

I think the key is to realize that there are so many precincts in each state that it would only take a few votes each to change an outcome.

Divide Bush's margin of victory by the number of precincts in FL, and divide that answer by 2. You'll get the number of votes per precinct to switch from Kerry to Bush to completely reverse the outcome. It's less than that of course if the margin was smaller.

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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Some can
Hillsboro and Dade are evote counties. Hernando and Baker can be recounted. I think anyone can recount as long as they can pay for the clerk holding the ballots.

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/county/index.shtml
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. Anyone can. And its not terribly expensive though have to pay for time of
staff of county. Recountflorida.org is doing some recounts and common casue has talked about it.

Does anyone have access to the detailed recount data in Suwannee County by Miami Herald which didn't finish it and left bit questions?
By precinct?
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #6
14. Hillsboro had touchscreens; but there are some things that can be done
There is something of a paper trail in the EIRS election incident reports and paper trail for absentees.
http://www.flcv.com/hillsboo.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla.html
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mirandapriestly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
9. boy, that looks pretty interesting
unfortunately I can't help further it. I remember you posted similar information earlier and someone attacked you for no good reason and your thread dissappeared. I am glad you brought it back up.
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icehenge Donating Member (411 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
10. percentages calculation?
Can you clarify how the percentages are calculated.
The example you made was helpful bu I'm not computing
what it means in my head.

Could you also define in detail what these terms mean.
candidate votes
&
total registered voters of same precinct

Also how does this equation help?
As in why don't we compare raw numbers?
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icehenge Donating Member (411 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. kick
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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. RE: "percentages calculation?"
Rather than calculating the percentage based on *total overall* votes you can isolate further by using total number of registered voters in the same party instead.

The formula is simple and helps spot major deviations. A regular turnout percentage only explains the candidates slice of the whole voting pie. It does not describe the candidates slice of their respective voting base.

For example,

Kerry received ___ votes which has the ratio of ___% registered Dems in the precinct. We all know there is an expected amount of Kerry votes depending on the registered Democrats in the area. The same method is used with Republicans.

In Liberty County, Bush received 64% and Kerry received 35% of the total votes counted. Looking at these numbers it is safe to assume this county has a majority of Republicans.

What it does not tell you is Bush received an average ratio of 376.37% (rough estimate) of registered Republican voters. Kerry on the other hand received a mere average of 20.2% from the registered Democrats.

Does that seem outlandish to you? It should be. As you look at other neighboring counties you will notice these numbers are not normal. Either the SOE is not doing their job in maintaining the books or someone is padding the votes with their blessing. That is just my opinion, draw your own conclusions.

Onto the subject of patterns.

The equation can also help in determining patterns. Proof of intelligent manipulation can be found when there is an established pattern.

An intelligent coder will try to use the best methods of evading different types of detection. He would have to worry about staying within a safe percentage while stealing the most votes. This would include having the same precinct stats we have. With all these variables to worry about, a mistake is inevitable. The mistake will most likely come in the form of a pattern.
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icehenge Donating Member (411 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Thanks for the note.
I agree bush receiving 376.37% of registered Republican
voters is a bit strange.
Thanks for explanation of percentage calculation.
I see how that can be used to look for irregularities
and patterns.

I do believe that who ever preformed the fraud will have
made a mistake in the case of one person being the mastermind.
With so many people participating or such a large manipulation
of the votes a person or pattern is bound to appear.
The clock is ticking...
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
12. Vote machine fraud is documented in Florida, as well as many other states
There was widespread and systematic voter suppression of minority voters, dirty tricks, vote machine fraud, and other vote manipulation in Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida- that was of magnitude enough to call in question who won those states.

http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla.html
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19
http://www.helpamericarecount.org/NewMexicoData/NewMexi...
http://www.flcv.com/bernalil.html
etc.

and also similar patterns in other states where the suppression and fraud did not change the election results including vote machine fraud in Calif., Pennsylvania, Washington, Texas, etc.
http://www.flcv.com/orangets.html
http://www.flcv.com/snohomis.html
http://www.flcv.com/mercerco.html
http://www.flcv.com/philadel.html
http://www.flcv.com/texas.html
http://www.votersunite.org
etc.

(the voter suppression of minorities in Mercer County is the worst I've ever seen-followup needed)

The unethical and illegal actions were so systematic and widespread that this cannot be allowed to continue uninvestigated and unpunished. There was a huge amount of obvious malfeasance and dirty tricks that should be investigated and dealt with
http://www.flcv.com/dirtytrf.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla2.html
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.votersunite.org
http://www.freepress.org departments


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floridadem30 Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #12
19. Thanks for links.
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mordarlar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
17. Can you link to earlier thread. I was amazed at the time. Thanks
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NationalEnquirer Donating Member (571 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
18. Wow! An eye opener.
Somebody has to bring the up to the papers, arent there any liberal papers in Florida?
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passy Donating Member (780 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
20. The results for some counties just look like they are switched.
I remember seeing a table of results and voter registrations on the ustogether.org site, but it's gone now. For some counties it looked like the number of votes for * was the same as the number of registered democrats and Kerry got nearly the same number of votes as there was registered republicans, when one considers turnout of course. I just thought that it looked very strange. I will try to find that table and will edit my message if I do. If someone else has a copy of it or knows where to find it I would appreciate the link.
the only thing i could find was this link to the results but I'm not sure what program to use to open it http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchiv...
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Poppyseedman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
21. There are 360 precincts in Hillsbough county
I live here in Hillsbourgh county.

The fact you find similar pairs as a pattern in only two precincts actually works against your argument. A total of 360 precincts and very few matched even across all precincts. I took 20 random % numbers and matched them up across all precincts, the most I matched by percentage was three.

I don't think what you are looking for is there.

What is interesting is that a couple of Bush precinct counts are over 100%

If the percent figured is the voters verses the total party registration for that precinct, how can there be more than 100% participation?

Another interesting number is the early vote in Hillsbough. Kerry beat Bush by over 7 %. I would think the early vote would be close to the actual results.



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dogindia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-14-05 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
22. kick.
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