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BREAKING. WASHINGTON POST DECLARES KERRY WON!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:30 PM
Original message
BREAKING. WASHINGTON POST DECLARES KERRY WON!
Edited on Mon Jan-03-05 09:13 PM by TruthIsAll
WASHINGTON POST BREAKING: EXIT POLLS SHOW KERRY WON!

According to Mitofsky/Edison, the National Exit Pool poll:

Has a margin of Error less than 1%!
Is a randomly-selected sample of 13,047!
Results may change "slightly"!
Kerry wins all regions except the South!
New voters flock to Kerry!

Kerry won by 2-3% after adjusting for characteristic weights!

Kerry won the Independent vote: 52-44
Kerry won the Moderates: 57-42
Kerry won the Women vote: 54-45
Kerry won the New voters: 57-41
People said that Kerry cared more by: 76-22

They said Kerry was more likely than Bush to bring about needed change by (get this):

*************** 95-4 *******************

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Matariki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. is this online?
i just went to their site and couldn't find this. did they use the words "Kerry Won"?

did they show the overall total?
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nyy26wc Donating Member (5 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. Math gives us the overall total
Simple math says we can generate the overall total.

If Kerry received 47% of the vote of 46% of the population
and 54% of the 54% of the population, that gives him an
overall total of 51%.

(.47 *.46) + (.54 * .54) = .5078
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Fortunato Donating Member (49 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #8
65. more specifically
Kerry - 50.78%
Bush - 48.22%

This is about a 2.5% difference.

If you take the national vote counts from November (I don't know the current "official" vote tally) of about 60 million for Bush and 56.5 million for Kerry (a difference of 3.5 million), however, you'll see the percentages flipped:

Bush - 51.5%
Kerry - 48.5%

Incredible, huh?

Examine what the votes WOULD have been, if the exit polls were dead on:

Kerry - 59,160,000 votes
Bush - 56,180,000 votes

Or, in other words, Kerry wins by almost 3 million.

Somehow, by random chance (*cough*), 3 million votes flip-flopped.

Even with a standard margin of error (closing the spread a bit), this is pretty insane. The sample of 13,000, taken both by phone and from pollsters at the physical sites, was far too large to introduce so much error.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #65
75. Thank you. Another true analyst . No bull. Just cold facts. I love it.
Fortunato to have you around.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #8
76. Hi nyy26wc!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
30. ITS THE 12:23AM NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13047). THIS MIGHT INTEREST YOU.
Edited on Mon Jan-03-05 09:44 PM by TruthIsAll
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
68. Here's the LINK from Nov. 3. It's been removed. Why?
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 09:43 AM by TruthIsAll
I got it by right-clicking on the chart and then clicking on Properties. I never accessed the site directly, only copied the image which someone had already downloaded.

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/electio...

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eowyn_of_rohan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
2. Is this a different one than what you posted earlier?
We don't need such misleading subject lines right now, imo.
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I agree. We'd hope that this was true
but we need to be serious.
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Pithy Cherub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. You are beyond compare
and you are priceless! The numbers, always the numbers, they have to crossfoot...
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Corey_Baker08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
5. I Agree This Is Extemely Misleading
Maybe the WP exit Poll shows what most of us already know, Kerry reall did win, but until I see the words Kerry Won on the WP website, I am not interested really.
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Shalom Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #5
50. Hey, It's Not "Extremely Misleading" - I Think the Stretch is OK...
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
6. Har, har! And happy new year to you, too! n/t
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
7. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Corey_Baker08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Actually I Dont Think The Exit Polls Are wrong
I think the Exit Polls are not wrong. it would be very hard for Republicans to screw the exit polls up but it wouldnt be hard for them to hack the machine and screw the actual votes up. I believe the exit polls reflect the real winner of this election precisely, and it is John Kerry.
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Machiavelli05 Donating Member (335 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. ok... you believe that
Im somewhat inclined too..
but this offeres no evidence of that. Nothing has.

I think its funny you think its so easy to covertly hack machines. Its not impossible to do it w/o getting caught, Im sure. However its not easy.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #17
26. Getting caught...
Well, if we can just get a judge somewhere to let us look at the code, they're dead. It wasn't that the machines were covertly hacked, the hack was OEM. And since the machines are some big, huge, secret, so secret the election officials can't even take a peek, we can sure as hell make a more than educated guess.
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Machiavelli05 Donating Member (335 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #26
38. No actually..
since you CANT see all you can do is make a guess. There cant be an educated guess in the absence of fact.
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. They could, but didn't an experienced pollster say
he's never this far off.

If exit polls can be used in other countries to guard against fraud, why can't we use them here.
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Machiavelli05 Donating Member (335 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. he's never been this far off in the past...
thats not proof. Thats saying he's obviously perfect b/c he has been in the past.

Honestly - while I was out on Nov 2nd I kept getting updated on the exit polling and I thought it was dangerous that the informatino was being proliferated in such a manner b/c it can serve to pacify the current front runner's support b/c they'll say "oh he's winnign we can stay home" and energize the runner up...
Thats what I think COULD have really happened.


As for other countries - if they want to almost incite a revolution based merely on exit polls thats fine. However, the fact that the opponnent was poisoned, and Ukranian officials confessed there was fraud, and the international observers said that it was suspicious DID contribute to this.

I, and most of the country, are not willing to start a revolution based on cirumstantial evidence and conjecture.
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #25
34. I'm not either
and neither was Kerry, I suspect.

If he had something airtight, I think he'd be out there.

As it is, I believe him when he says he wants election reform. Say what you want about the fraud, but we badly need to reform the system. I never want to see suppression like I did this year again.
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euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #21
49. Because exit polls focused on fraud detection are...
...conducted using a different methodology than the one used in the US. This type of exit poll is used in Europe.

In the US, MSM pays for exit polls, and MSM is only interested in demographics, so they can say cool things like "45% of all married women in the southeast voted for Bush."

Two different poll methodologies. The European model is a true random sample of all voters. The US model is not a random sample, and doesn't need to be.


Look -----> http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_about_...
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #49
66. So the MSM pays millions of dollars for an inaccurate exit poll?
I find that hard to believe. Especially after the 2000 presidential election exit poll complaints made by the Repugs. Sorry don't buy what your link is saying. They may use different methodologies in other countries but the MSM is not going to invest in a piece of crap. They also want to say "------ will win by a __ margin". They don't want to be wrong and look like idiots to the Repugs again.
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spooked Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
28. You don't need to edit the topic line. By possessing that exit poll data
the Washington Post has the evidence of Kerry's win.
I personally love the headline.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #28
37. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
spooked Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #37
41. EVIDENCE: "A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment"

Looks like EVIDENCE to me.

By the way, the word English is always capitalized.
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Machiavelli05 Donating Member (335 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. You didnt read too far did you?
1.) A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment: The broken window was evidence that a burglary had taken place. Scientists weigh the evidence for and against a hypothesis.

2.) Something indicative; an outward sign: evidence of grief on a mourner's face.

3.) Law. The documentary or oral statements and the material objects admissible as testimony in a court of law.

2 & 3 are much more relavent to something that needs to stand up in court than 1.


As for "E"nglish, i did not reelize that perfect spelling and capitAlization was necessary on a massage bored. kNow I realeyez you will claim that b/c i was challenging your ability to under stand the EEEEnglish language, you challenged my writing ability - however, I was merely challenging your understanding as a rhetorical device b/c you obviously had no idea what i was talking about. I have full confidence that you can speak and read EEEnglish, maybe even another language or too.

However your grasp of what evidence will hold up in the court of public opinion and law is lacking.
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Wiley50 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
9. I Love You, Truth! But this ain't April 1 n/t
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
10. I don't need a caption to tell me Kerry won

I knew Kerry won the day of the election.

So did most people, including GWB.

These numbers did not totally surprise me. I was surprised about Kerry's higher numbers with Asians and Hispanics. From what I was hearing,on the MSM/LOL, Kerry was "in trouble" with minorities.

I am African American and I said over and over that Kerry would get from 85 -90 % of the vote and we did it! Those were the folks who were allowed to vote, it probably ended up that 92 % of AA would have voted for Kerry.

Oh Rove's elves were very busy.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. The Post doesn't know it yet
But we do...

Kerry Won!

Ya just gotta love the headline, eh, goclark?
That headline of TIA's was a real attention grabber.
Might be something to consider in any print material we design.
Check yer PM.
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Unfortunately, the post isn't going public with it.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Not public? It's on the web...
Like I said, they don't know it yet... but they will, and you will see it in a Post headline. Betcha.
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catnhatnh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
13. No educated person could read this poll...
...and come to ANY other conclusion!Simple math (like 3rd grade) says 47+54>52+45 and by 4 points without even considering the fact that women vote as a higher percentage than men...Kerry whipped 'em but GOOD!The headline Wapo failed to provide is their bone thrown to the regime.Don't blame TIA for stating the obvious....
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. But this poll didn't count
The one at the actual election polls is the only poll that counts.

13,000 votes vs. 120,000,000.

I think the poll of 120,000,000 was a helluva lot more accurate, thankyouverymuch. Now the exit poll data would be more meaningful if some actual hard evidence of widespread fraud existed, but it doesn't. Ergo, I can safely dismiss the anomolies in the exit poll data.
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redacted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Hey Walt, you a statistician?
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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-05 06:39 AM
Response to Reply #18
81. Walt never provides any real answers, just argument.
You would think it'd get boring for him by now. So does 1,000+ posts mean that someone isn't a newbie anymore? Cause I sure would like to call someone out... *sigh* if only.


:hi: Walt, I can't see you. Boy is it refreshing.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. You think?
Well, read about how the machines could be hacked from a cell phone. Read what computer experts have to say. Read about how votes were completely lost from DREs, and then read about the science behind exit polling, and recall the networks paid 10 million for the exit polls.

Then read some of TIA's proven analysis; Once you've done that, Walt, you won't have to think, you'll know: Kerry Won!
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euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #22
51. Nothing...
...in your first paragraph points to fraud.

TIA is not an expert by his own admission. The actual experts disagree with TIA.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. You need to read Freeman's article about the American myth
Edited on Mon Jan-03-05 09:25 PM by davidgmills
Of how accurate the actual vote counts are. He shatters this myth. He compares it to the census which is off by millions and whom the experts say would be much better if done statistically.

In fact, he believes that the the actual election results are probably even less accurate than the census becuase the goal is not accuracy but winning and the stakes are very high.

The goal in polling is accuracy or you are out of business.

Think of the difficulty in counting 120 million dollar bills and then trying to make sure half got to NY and half to LA and the problems with theft. Counting votes is even more difficult because the ballots are much harder to count that dollar bills and you have the incentive of election theft.

Don't believe that 120 million count. Give up this myth. I have unless I've got some exit polls to support the count.
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #23
46. I agree 100%
I think TIA (and I'm being frank) should require anyone who wishes to contest his posts on the exit poll analyses he does to read Freeman's paper as a prerequisite unless they show reasonable proof of
credentials. Just my take. But people will say what they will.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #16
67. And only in America are exit polls ignored.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #67
72. Exit Polls are only indicative of a greater problem
when other corrborative hard evidence is present as was the case in the Ukraine, but not in the United States.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-05 03:08 AM
Response to Reply #72
77. There was no more corroborative evidence of fraud there than here
Just much more media attention. And the irony of that situation is that there was purported fraud in the exit polls as well.
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SicTransit Donating Member (263 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-05 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #77
78. Oh yes there was

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/20 ...

"They started to beat voters and election officials, trying to push through towards the ballot boxes," he told The Telegraph.

"People's faces were cut from blows to the head. There was blood all over."

...

Maya Syta, a journalist working at polling station 73 in a Kiev suburb, witnessed ballot papers destroyed with acid poured into a ballot box. "The officials were taking them out of the box and they couldn't understand why they were wet," she said.

"Then I saw they started to blacken and disintegrate as if they were burning. Two ballots were wrapped up into a tube with a yellow liquid inside. After a few moments they were completely eaten up."

...

The most common trick was "carousel" voting, in which busloads of Yanukovich supporters simply drove from one polling station to another casting multiple false absentee ballots.

In another brazen fraud recorded by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, voters were given pens filled with ink that disappeared, leaving ballots unmarked and invalid.

=====================

When you can come up with something that happened in the United States that even approaches some of the above events, please tell us. Otherwise stop the propaganda about how Ukrainian elections were contested because of the exit polls there. The exit polls were a tiny corroborative corner of the mountain of hard proof of fraud - something that is completely lacking in the US.

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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
15. Blast your hide, TIA
I was expecting something more like this:

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Not a Sheep Donating Member (199 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
20. AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE? THE POST DECLARED KERRY WON? /eom
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SlowDownFast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. yeah, your missing something.....
the same thing i guess i'm missing too.

the same thing alot of us are missing about this (these) post(s)....

the straight facts without being misled by sensational subject titles.

not to mention duplicate postings of it.

this kind of shits gettin tiresome. Alot of good things happen in here, but you got to wade through a lot of horseshit to find it these days, it seems.
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Not a Sheep Donating Member (199 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Yeah, I thought........
... this was "Breaking" news and the Post came out and said Kerry won. Then I just saw the picture from The Post with no details of them declaring Kerry won, etc. I thought maybe I was missing something.

So The Post didn't declare Kerry won? Ok, I guess I don't get misleading topic then.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #27
39. cute name. do you follow Strauss by any chance? n/t
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SlowDownFast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #39
45.  i know who strauss is.....
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 12:11 AM by utopiansecretagent
and just because i'm calling the sensationalized subject here an overdramatized attention-getter (ie: lie or at best half-truth) doesn't mean i'm a nazi (straussian), as you imply. I'm not questioning TIA's statistics, just his misleading subject heading.

sheesh.
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troubleinwinter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #27
40. Golly, tired so very soon? Try 'Hide Thread' or 'Ignore' or just
don't read it if you view it as "a lot of horseshit".

If you have read here at all (or more than a bit), you know that many people are interested in this information. It is completely uncalled for to come here and make rude comments. I avoid certain threads that I don't care for. I suggest you do the same.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #27
42. Yea, like we wade through all the Lies in the MSM everyday
Edited on Mon Jan-03-05 10:32 PM by goclark

The difference is they are trying to cover up the truth and we are letting the TRUTH speak for us.

We are not trying to hide one little number.

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SlowDownFast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #42
44. well 2 lies don't make a right.......
ie:

bush won the election

+

Breaking! Washington Post Declares Kerry Won

still =

horseshit
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #44
61. We learned it from GWBCrooks
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #27
63. I'm sorry, but I didn't think it was misleading at all
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 08:21 AM by davidgmills
I guess for those of us who have been following this thread for the last two weeks or so, we all know tht we have been searching for a smoking gun -- from CNN screen shots on election night, or anywhere else we can find it. Several have turned up within the last few days. I immediately presumed it was one more.

Bush won the mechanical and electronic tabulation. -- ACtual results

Kerry won the intent of the people. -- Exit Polls
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bitchkitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #27
64. Did you notice which forum you were in?
And did you notice the abundance of other forums where election reform is not a topic?
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karlrschneider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. Uh, from whence cometh these data?
:eyes:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. THE DATA COMETH FROM HERE
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karlrschneider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #31
36. Thanks....I backtracked through a lot of that...
it's like a maze that doesn't seem (to me) to lead anywhere. I'm sure you know I'm as convinced as anyone in the USA that there was massive fraud, but I just can't pin down anything that makes me think it would be a 'smoking gun' to a significant percentage of Americans which ISTM would be the bare minimum to even 'shift the debate', let alone prevent Chimp from running the show for 4 more years...

I need to re-read that thread...


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meatsack Donating Member (19 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:42 PM
Response to Original message
32. This is misleading
Your final 2 statements are misleading

"People said that Kerry cared more by: 76-22

They said Kerry was more likely than Bush to bring about needed change by (get this):

*************** 95-4 *******************"

For the first one, people were asked, what was the most important factor in deciding a president. 9% of people thought that the candidate caring about 'me' was the most important, in that 9% it was split 76-22. If you asked that question to the full 100% then I bet the ratio would be closer.

And of course people who think change is the most important factor for choosing a president are going to choose someone other than the incumbent. Hardly a news flash.

Yes the poll overall indicates that Kerry should have won. But your 'breakdowns' are showing us nothing new.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Ok, let's not quibble. You agree. The poll shows that Kerry won.
That's all that matters here.
Not a news flash? You would be surprised at how many are unaware.
To them, its a newsflash.

All should know before Jan. 6 that Kerry won.

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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
33. Right there in black and white.
Pretty darn clear!

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:08 AM
Response to Original message
47. Is there a URL or cite for this?
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
48. Is there a URL or cite for this?
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seafan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #48
52. Link: right-click on the graphic and click on properties
Here is the text of the link, but remove the spaces after the http: so the link will be live.

http: //media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
53. Why did you change the numbers?
You said:

Kerry won the New voters: 57-41

The poll shows it 55-43
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #53
55. Hey boss, almost got me: See "Did Not Vote" 57-41.
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 12:54 AM by TruthIsAll
Nice catch. Thought you got me?

Yes, First Time voter: 55-43

I read "Did Not Vote". My bad.

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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #55
56. Oh, I see...but that's not first-time voters
That includes people who skipped 2000.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #56
58. My bad. Look, it was a MISTAKE. A very minor one. Get Over It. n/t
.
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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #58
59. I'm over it
I'm just trying to make sense of the numbers.

Was the male/female split really 54-46? In 2000, it was 52-48. Why the dramatic change?
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mahina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
54. Truth I love you.
This is going up all on telephone polls all over town.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #54
57. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #57
69. Why doesn't this show on the first page of the WP.
It's an exit poll. Not the actual election.
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seafan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #57
71. Hover your mouse over the graphic; an icon to enlarge it appears.
Click on this little square icon, and the graphic expands to sull size.



http: //media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

(remove the spaces after the http: to make the link active again.)
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 01:34 AM
Response to Original message
60. When was that printed? (nt)
nt
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #60
62. Day After the Election
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 08:13 AM by davidgmills
Bottom of Article says exit polls were taken from people "yesterday."
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-05 03:43 AM
Response to Reply #62
79. ~yesterday--all my troubles seemed so far away~~~
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euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
70. a randomly-selected sample of 13,047
no.
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #70
73. No, what?
not randomly-selected?
not 13,047?

:kick:
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #70
74. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
hbouma Donating Member (4 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-05-05 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
80. Two poll results clearly show election results did not add up
Greetings,

Two things really show how the final result doesn't add up:

1) If you look at the income poll results, Kerry soundly beats Bush. The numbers in () are the actual % of total votes each candidate received in the entire population. You calculate them by multiplying the % of votes received by the candidate by the population distribution %. For example, for the $14,999 or less group, Kerry received 65% of the vote. Or 65% of 8% of the total vote is 5.2%.

8% for $14,999 or less 65% (5.2%) to 34% (2.72%)
15% for $15,000 to $29,999 60% (9.0%) to 38% (5.70%)
22% for $30,000 to $49,999 53% (11.66%) to 46% (10.12%)
23% for $50,000 to $74,999 46% (10.58%) to 53% (12.19%)
14% for $75,000 to $99,999 48% (6.72%) to 51% (7.14%)
18% for $100k or more 43% (7.74%) to 55% (9.9%)

Total: Kerry: 50.9% vs. Bush: 47.77%
This shows a > 3% margin of victory for Kerry. So the fact that he lost by 2% shows a swing of 5% which far exceeds any 1% or 3% margin of error.

One interesting side note is that the voting population breakdown is more represented by the higher income classes. However, we know that in reality the population is made up more of the lower income people.

2) This has been mentioned before but in this election millions of new voters who did not vote in the last election. However, these poll results show that of the 17% who did not vote in the prior election, 57% of them voted for Kerry and not Bush. Ergo, Kerry should have mopped the floor with Bush. So if all the new voters did not vote for Bush, where did all the Bush votes come from?

Hal
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