Ohio Question

[George_S]

Bush = 2,796,147 51.01
Kerry = 2,659,664 48.52

Total votes for pres = 5,481,756

Total votes for gov = 5,285,005

And if the conservative base voted, why did Bush get 1,471,707 less votes than George Voinovich(R)?

Voinovich, George (i) Rep 3,378,356 63.92
Fingerhut, Eric Dem 1,906,649 36.08

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/general/by_state/pres_sen_gov/OH.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Is this a typo?

[chimpy the poopthrower]

1. I actually don't have any problem with that.

...Although I do have big problems with the Ohio count overall.

I think it's perfectly plausible that some people would vote for Voinovich and not Bush.

[TheKingfish]

2. Voinovich is moderate and was the mayor of Cleveland n/t

[George_S]

3. But they are saying they got the turnout there because of gay marriage.

And that would go for bush.

[TheKingfish]

4. Don't get your point

The choises were Voinovich or Fingerhut. Of course fundies will go for Voinovich.

[George_S]

6. Bush getting 1,471,707 less votes doesn't make sense

That's just too big a difference since they are both (R).

[Polly Glot]

5. Question..Ohio here...

First, according to your post,

Total votes for gov = 5,285,005

This must be a typo? We didn't vote for a governor, we voted for a senator, thus the Voinovich/Fingerhut tally.

Assuming Senator, not Governor was meant:

196,751 more votes were cast for President than for Senator;

136,483 more votes were cast for * than for Kerry.

Of course, this doesn't include ballots not counted to date.

Not sure what, if anything, to make of this... Too tired/depressed to think...

[George_S]

8. Right, senator, thanks.

U.S. Senate - 11477 of 11477 Precincts Reporting


Voinovich, George (i) Rep 3,378,356 63.92
Fingerhut, Eric Dem 1,906,649 36.08

And the numbers don't add up if "moral issues" decided the vote in Ohio in the Reps claim:

Senators reject Ohio ban on gay marriage
DeWine, Voinovich against amendment; bishops support it
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Sandy Theis
Plain Dealer Bureau Chief

Columbus

Ohio's U.S. senators said they will vote no on a proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage a position that places them at odds with their church.

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/1097141733124572.xml

[Lucypher]

10. Same in Florida here is some data I am looking into

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio:
President
          Name                   Party                   Votes                              Pct
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bush, George (i)        Rep                                    2,796,147                   51.01
Kerry, John             Dem                                    2,659,664                   48.52
Badnarik, Michael       NP                                        14,331                    0.26
Peroutka, Michael       NP                                        11,614                    0.21
                        Total President votes                  5,481,756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Senate
          Name                   Party                   Votes                              Pct
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Voinovich, George       Rep                                    3,378,356                   63.92
Fingerhut, Eric         Dem                                    1,906,649                   36.08
                        Total Senate votes                     5,285,005
                        EXTRA? presidential votes cast.          196,751
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida:
President
          Name                   Party                   Votes                              Pct
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bush, George (i)        Rep                                    3,911,825                    52.1
Kerry, John             Dem                                    3,534,609                   47.08
Nader, Ralph            RP                                        32,615                    0.43
Badnarik, Michael       Lib                                       11,912                    0.16
Brown, Walter           Soc                                        3,509                    0.05
Cobb, David             Grn                                        3,906                    0.05
Harris, James           SWP                                        2,750                    0.04
Peroutka, Michael       CST                                        6,601                    0.09
                        Total President votes                  7,507,727
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Senate
          Name                   Party                   Votes                              Pct
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Martinez, Mel           Rep                                    3,622,823                   49.41
Castor, Betty           Dem                                    3,544,602                   48.34
Bradley, Dennis         VET                                      165,020                    2.25
                        Total Senate votes                     7,332,445
                        EXTRA? presidential votes cast.          175,282

[Polly Glot]

11. Thanks for your breakdown as well, sor...

I can see a few people here and there voting for Pres and not Senator... but come on...

This shit stinks to high heaven...

[philaguy]

7. Because Your Math is Wrong

"And if the conservative base voted, why did Bush get 1,471,707 less votes than George Voinovich(R)?"

Ummm... look at your numbers again. 1,471,707 is the difference between Voinovich and Fingerhut, not the difference between Bush and Voinovich.

Voinovich - Bush = 582,209 (NOT 1,471,707)

And if you add that 582,209 to Fingerhut's total, you get 2,488,858. That number is very close to the total Kerry votes minus the number of people who only voted in the presidential election.

So, yes, it looks approximately like around 582,209 people voted for (Voinovich and Kerry) if you assume that every Bush voter also voted for Voinovich.

The weird thing about these numbers is that given the total presidential votes, the total senatorial votes, and the breakdown between Voinovich and Fingerhut votes, you might expect to see a lower individual vote total for Kerry, since these assumptions suggest that people who only voted in the presidential race voted for Kerry. So turning the question around in the world of first-approximations and simplifying assumptions, where did the "extra" Kerry votes come from?

Without even looking at the numbers for my home state of Delaware, I expect you would see a similar, and even larger, difference between votes for Bush and votes for Mike Castle (R) for representative. Castle is an (R), but he is an immensely popular former governor.

[George_S]

14. Duh on me, but the principle is still the same...

... over a mil or 1/2 a mil is still enough.

If the fundies decided the election in Ohio, Bush should have got that 582,578. So it looks like Ohio actually voted AGAINST the gay marriage ban.

Or maybe numbers aren't my strong suit. They aren't, inf fact, but...

Mr. Foreman and other gay rights advocates also said that far more people cast ballots for president than for the amendments. That indicated the amendments were not critically important motivators for conservative voters, they argued.

Indeed, in Ohio, 221,000 more people voted for president than for the constitutional amendment. But an analysis of several counties also indicated that the drop-off in voting for the amendment was significantly larger in Democratic counties than in Republican ones, suggesting a higher sense of intensity about the measure among Republicans.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/politics/campaign/04gay.html

Why would 221,000 more vote for president than voted for the amendment if it was the anti-gay vote that made the difference?

Something isn't right here.

[lizzieforkerry]

9. Because Fingerhut ran the worst campaign in the history of Ohio

A LOT of people learned he was running when they went into the booth. People recognize Voinovich's name, so they vote. Most people (Dems and some repubs) in Ohio blame Taft and Bush for Ohio's mess. Voinovich and DeWine have come through it all smelling like roses. Voin. ran attack ads in places that Fingerhut wasn't even actively campaigning in. Believe me, Fingerhut was pathetic- I like him, but my grandmother could have ran a better campaign.

[AngryOldDem]

16. What was up with that?

I saw maybe two yard signs, one (maybe two) commercials, and nothing else. I know the man walked the state, but even that didn't get much coverage.

Man...if he was that much in need of funds, he should have let us know. I would have had a bake sale.

[johnnie]

12. Even if you will disagree with this

A lot of dems still like Voinovich. He was a dem once and I know some people who still like him.

[AngryOldDem]

15. And I used to be one of them

But Voinovich tore it when he appeared with Bush at a rally in Dayton last week and quoted chapter and verse from the Bible.

I have voted for him in the past, but this year I was going to vote for Fingerhut anyway, despite the horrible campaign he ran. My husband was going to be one of those with a split presidential/senatorial vote until he heard Voinovich, too.

[Carolab]

13. Statement from johnkerry.com 11/3/04

Statement from Kerry Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill on Ohio
Boston, MA – Kerry-Edwards campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill released the following statement:

“The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio.”