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Florida Ballot Inspection Results are In!!

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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:31 PM
Original message
Florida Ballot Inspection Results are In!!
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 09:37 PM by adolfo
A ballot inspection of 2 precincts in Orange county Florida was completed. The results are not exactly what we expected. Check out the numbers and decide for yourself.



http://www.recountflorida.com /

There is a *significant* difference from the official results. We may have opened up a can of worms publishing this. Statisticians! are you reading this?
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. Change your headline, or the mod's will delete you
Headline must be exact to the story headline.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Only in LBN, not in this forum.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. Interesting. Looks like Bush gets more out of the recount than Kerry.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Wait, I was reading it wrong. In any case, it looks like someone...
padded the official tallies. Anyone?
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bear425 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Mandate? What mandate? n/t
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mikeylove Donating Member (29 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. I read it wrong at first too.
Good results, they just need to be flipped. It should be layed out old->new.
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. No, it looks like they BOTH lost; Bush slighty more. (n/t)
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
37. They definitely both lost quite a few votes - we can't form any...
sort of clear notion from just these two precincts. We would simply need more data.
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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 03:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
62. Adding up the numbers for the presidential race.
Edited on Wed Dec-15-04 04:03 AM by thanatonautos
Summed over both precincts.

Official Tally:

Bush: 1121 Kerry: 715. plurality: +406 (Bush). ballots: 1848

Inspection Tally:

Bush: 1064 Kerry: 678. plurality: +386 (Bush). ballots: 1752

Differences:

Bush: -57 Kerry: -37. plurality: -20 (Bush). ballots: -96

Comments:

These are big shifts relative to total numbers
of votes.

Overall Bush had 20 extra votes in the official
count out of a plurality of 406, thus exaggerating
his margin by 4.93%.

Overvote and undervotes look reasonably small,
though there is a pickup of one extra undervote in
the inspection tally, and of 9 undervotes in one
of the downticket races.

It looks as if the official counts have been
exaggerated on both sides, so as to benefit Bush.
It would be very interesting to look at the
signatures on the precinct rolls.

Question:

Where are the additional 96 ballots which were
in the official tally?

Haven't looked at the downticket races yet,
though nothing stands out at first glance.

Needs further investigation. Recount Florida!
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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 04:32 AM
Response to Reply #62
63. Adding up the Senate race.
Edited on Wed Dec-15-04 05:26 AM by thanatonautos
Summed over both precincts.

Official Tally:

Martinez: 1070 Castor: 729. plurality: +341 (Martinez) ballots: 1839

Inspection Tally:

Martinez: 1017 Castor: 691. plurality: +326 (Martinez) ballots: 1752

Differences:

Martinez: -53 Castor: -38. plurality: -15 (Martinez) ballots: -87

Comments:

Again, these are very significant changes.

Overall Martinez had 15 extra votes in the Official Tally,
out of a plurality of +341, improving his margin in
the two precincts by 4.40%.

There are a number of extra undervotes identified in
the Inspection Tally: 9 versus 1, for an increase of 8
undervotes.

The total number of ballots I calculate from the
numbers of votes reported in the Senate race in the
Official Tally does not agree with the official
number of ballots as calculated in the Presidential race.

It comes out at 1839 instead of 1848. This is very
odd. The Official Tally does not appear to be
internally consistent with respect to the number
of ballots. There are discrepancies in both of the
precincts, too.

The Inspection Tally does not seem to have this
problem.

These results are extremely suspicious, if accurate.






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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 04:33 AM
Response to Reply #63
64. RECOUNT ALL OF FLORIDA!
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Brundle_Fly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
4. So I dont understand
they both did better than expected?
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. No, they both lost votes n/t
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
7. remember....
.....things are seldom what they seem. Skim milk masquerades as cream.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
8. looks like someone threw out a few ballots! - perhaps a lot of Kerry and
a few of Bush?

There should not shrinkage.

very curious


almost implies first go round reported results were pulled out of the air -

and second go round used selected ballots.
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tinfoil_beret Donating Member (204 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #8
40. Out of Thin Air
That phrase concurs with what I found in an analysis of
Florida. Orange County is one of the 7 of 14 counties with
the highest numbers of voters in which the democratic
percentage of the total votes changed less than one percent
from 2000.

       % R       % D
2000 48.02%    50.06%
2004 49.62%    49.83%

Upon comparing the percentages from the two elections in the
counties with the highest numbers of registered voters, one
might wonder if they used the 2000 percentages and adjusted
the tallies to increase the percentages for * and for
increased turnout.
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Verve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
9. I don't get it? You're missing some votes in all precincts.
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 09:49 PM by Verve
Total votes cast for inspection don't match your official totals? What's up???
INSPECTED BALLOTS
President
Bush: 772
Kerry: 275
Nader: 5
Badnarik: 3
CPF: 2
OFFICIAL BALLOTS
President
Bush: 793
Kerry: 301
Nader: 5
Badnarik: 3
CPF: 1

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rockedthevoteinMA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. The "Official Ballots" are the certified results...
So I'm guessing it either means the certified results were padded, or votes were tossed? Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. 3:1 padding for bush in 2nd precinct...
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 09:57 PM by ccarter84
...but that pesky first district where kerry actually gained like 6 more votes than bush did...we need a much larger sample, are any more recounts underway, or was this a singular effort

edited for spelling
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. Official means what was reported following the election...
...inspected means what the audits (recounts) showed. Geeze, the stupid vote inspectors can't even call it what it is, more confusion and bafflement!

Bottom line there are major count failures and over counting which should be validated over many more precincts. I say do them all, there are at least 2,500 in Florida and if the majority or most look like this, there is no telling who really won. Hot damn, this springs hope eternal.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:54 PM
Response to Original message
13. There were more on the first counts?
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 10:08 PM by Patsy Stone
Where did these votes go? Is this for real? Wow. I gotta tell you... Castor did better than Kerry statewide. If it's all the third party voters who voted for her, and not for Kerry, I guess that makes some sense. That still seems weird to me since * beat Martinez by about 300K statewide. So, none of those * voters voted for Senator (highly improbable since Martinez is as rabid as *)? Last I checked at the FL SoS site, Castor beat Kerry in 52 counties and Martinez beat * only in Miami-Dade. They may have "adjusted" it since then. I'd certainly like to meet a Miami-Dade Kerry/Martinez voter!
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
14. How many precints in Florida, there are 85 counties and well
over 2,500 precincts, so based on the variations in these two that are sampled I say that all precints must be inspected and validated:


Precinct 101
Inspect Official Adjust Percent
Bush: 772 Bush: 783 -11 -1.4%
Kerry: 276 Kerry: 301 -25 -8.3%
Nader: 5 Nader: 5 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 3 Badnarik: 3 0 0.0%
Peroutka: 1 Peroutka: 1 0 0.0%
Overvotes: Overvotes:
1057 1093 -36 -3.3%

Precinct 102
Inspect Official Adjust
Bush: 292 292 Bush: 328 328 -36 -11.0%
Kerry: 402 402 Kerry: 414 414 -12 -2.9%
Nader: 1 1 Nader: 1 1 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 1 1 Badnarik: 1 1 0 0.0%
Undervotes: Undervotes:
Overvotes: Overvotes:
696 744 -48 -6.5%

Total
Inspect Official Adjust
Bush: 1064 1111 -47 -4.2%
Kerry: 678 715 -37 -5.2%
Nader: 6 6 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 4 4 0 0.0%
Peroutka: 1 1 0 0.0%
1753 1837 -84 -4.6%
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. 67 counties n/t
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. You are right, I stand corrected...
...but there are many precincts perhaps 2,500+
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. No doubt several thousand... n/t
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dogindia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:58 PM
Response to Original message
17. sorry ....dumb question
are these coordinated with the voter sign in sheets. We have them in New York. Do they have them everywhere?
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thanatonautos Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 04:40 AM
Response to Reply #17
65. It's not a dumb question ...
Edited on Wed Dec-15-04 04:40 AM by thanatonautos
it's now a very important question. I want to see those
sign in sheets examined, and I sincerely hope that
they do exist.

The only dumb questions are those which are never
asked. :)
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meganmonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
18. Curiouser and curiouser...
Is itpossible that absentee ballots weren't included in the inspection, or some other 'logical' explanation? Because otherwise this seriously points to something wierd....
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tinfoil_beret Donating Member (204 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #18
42. Orange County might have separate precincts for absentees
The Miami-Dade canvass shows separate precincts for absentee ballots and regular ballots. I haven't looked at the Orange County canvass for comparison.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:01 PM
Response to Original message
19. What I see
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 10:07 PM by Carolab
Is * lost 37 and 21, Kerry lost 12-13 and 25-26

In other words, * lost 58 total; Kerry 37-39 total


In the first race, Castor lost 27 while Kerry lost 12-13 and Martinez lost 18 while Bush lost 37.
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Lauri Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
20. Why have the totals changed so significantly?
There is up to an 11% difference between what was officially counted and what was recounted. That seems significant on its own.

What is up with these numbers in general? What are they supposed to represent? If you started with 745 votes, when you recount, shouldn't you also have 745 votes when you are finishing recounting - not 695 votes. What happened to the 50 votes (6% decrease) during the recount Shouldn't it just be a matter of redistribution?

Even though the recount doesn't better the count for Kerry, my question is why have the numbers changed so significantly. What am I missing?
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Must_B_Free Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #20
41. absentee?
where did the votes go???

disappearing ink?
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hootinholler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #20
45. 6% sounds familiar....
How close is that to the Florida Red shift?
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EuroObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #45
61. Florida redshift is precisely 6%
Edited on Wed Dec-15-04 03:10 AM by EuroObserver
Freeman - Simon "Redshift" Analysis: Florida

Final 4pm Exit Polls   "Result"         Variation
Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush Redshift

 50    49   1.0    47    52  -5.0    -3.0  3.0   6.0%
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trudyco Donating Member (975 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
22. How are absentee and provisional handled?
Time to look at the pollbooks.
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idealista Donating Member (85 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #22
34. "time to look at the pollbooks" is right
THe average increase between the "inspected" ballots and the "official results" isa bout 5.5%, for both Bush and Kerry.

So, lets say that 5.5% had been added to Bush's count on election night, perhaps by manipulation of the vote counters.

Now, someone like our friends here want to recount some precincts. How to make it look right? Say it is hard to find unused ballots and the necessary equipment to mark them up for Bush. So instead they simply take 5.5% of the Kerry ballots out of the pile.

I have no reason to think someone would do this - people aren't dishonest really, are they? - and it seems like the pollbook would show about 2% more voters than ballots. Or maybe they just take the 5.5% of the Kerry ballots and do something to "invalidate them"?

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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
24. And this is a democratic county, isn't it? Just imagine what the other
counties must look like! Email it to some journalists.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. dupe n/t
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 10:06 PM by Patsy Stone
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. It's Orlando. n/t
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amelia Donating Member (261 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
25. 19 more votes for Kerry
These figures show a 19 vote gain for Kerry in just these two precincts. Which is roughly about .011 percent of the total. How many precints are in Orange county? And is it repug or Democrat? You have to look at the big picture. Out of 1739 votes, Kerry gained 19 over bush.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. You are looking at it backwards
the inspection results show a loss, not a gain over the official (certified) results.
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:22 PM
Response to Reply #31
35. Actual loss but gain for Kerry against Bush n/t
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. Okay yes
I see
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amelia Donating Member (261 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. Kerry gained 19 votes in the recount
My numbers show that Kerry gained 19 votes in the recount or You could say that bush lost 19 votes. Either way the advantage was for Kerry.

Recount:
Bush 772 + 291 = 1063
Kerry 275 + 401 = 676

1063 - 676 = 387 (bush's lead over Kerry)

Official count:
bush 793 + 328 = 1121
Kerry 301 + 414 = 715

1121 - 715 = 406 (bush's lead over Kerry)

406 - 387 = 19 votes difference in bush's lead over Kerry

Bush's lead over Kerry was 406, but after the recount, it is 387.
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
30. This is an automatic trigger for a careful thorough recount....
...throughout Florida. We do not have a clear reliable count. Ask any CPA or bank auditor about such results when inspecting accounts. This would trigger many questions and an automatic full audit on any public corporation or institution. I say that Orange county with it's 40 or 50 precincts must be fully recounted based on this.

I'll bet this is rampant throughout the entire state. What a bunch of incompetents running elections here, to be generous, but what a bunch of crooks too if this has occurred throughout all of the county precincts. Bring down the lawyers and lets roll up our sleeves and get busy.
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. You Nailed It whistle
That means, we have the right to void the results and demand reprieve.
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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #30
39. Before we get too fired up.....
Edited on Tue Dec-14-04 10:41 PM by BlueDog2u
We ought to make certain that there is not some obvious explanation, such as missing absentees. If there is no such explanation, then I agree, the numbers are truly astounding and suggest the need to recount the entire state.

My name is not John Conyers, but I did approve this statement.
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #39
44. Well geeze, what is involved in getting that validated...
...abscentees and what was the other weird thing, ah, provisionals. Sure, let's make sure that all of the votes that are supposed to be counted are in fact counted. But agian, look at what was reported:


Precinct 101
Inspect Official Adjust Percent
Bush: 772 Bush: 783 -11 -1.4%
Kerry: 276 Kerry: 301 -25 -8.3%
Nader: 5 Nader: 5 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 3 Badnarik: 3 0 0.0%
Peroutka: 1 Peroutka: 1 0 0.0%
Overvotes: Overvotes:
1057 1093 -36 -3.3%

Precinct 102
Inspect Official Adjust
Bush: 292 292 Bush: 328 328 -36 -11.0%
Kerry: 402 402 Kerry: 414 414 -12 -2.9%
Nader: 1 1 Nader: 1 1 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 1 1 Badnarik: 1 1 0 0.0%
Undervotes: Undervotes:
Overvotes: Overvotes:
696 744 -48 -6.5%

Total
Inspect Official Adjust
Bush: 1064 1111 -47 -4.2%
Kerry: 678 715 -37 -5.2%
Nader: 6 6 0 0.0%
Badnarik: 4 4 0 0.0%
Peroutka: 1 1 0 0.0%
1753 1837 -84 -4.6%


Extrapolate that across all precinct results and I think the race becomes very questionable as to who actually won Florida, does it not?
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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #44
67. Agreed. That's exactly why we must proceed with caution
to rule out other causes. If other causes are ruled out, then we have a powerful case.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #39
48. Great Avatar! n/t
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mulethree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #39
49. Could one count include provisionals and not the other count?
Not much info, a place and 2 sets of numbers
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
33. I am a Floridian from Orlando, what is up with these numbers ???
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #33
46. So am I and this is mind-blowing. The entire county should...
...be recounted along with probably the entire state. Democratic lawyers ought to be on the planes flying in get busy and clear this up. I think we have a major vote fraud case going on and the repukes are up to their necks in this. The Yang outfit with Tom Feeney and his gerrymandered voter redistricting and commissioning the Yang Software company to write secret touchscreen program code to defraud the vote counts and cancel votes and double count, etc. all to go undetected. This needs to be exposed and our county is the focus at the moment, but I think it is only the tip of the iceberg.
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ColoradoDemocrat Donating Member (28 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
36. 13% error for * in 2nd district, 3% for Kerry
Did someone say incompetents?!?!?
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #36
47. and criminal vote fraud if this is widely evident over many...
...other precincts.
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buddysmellgood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
50. WTF is wrong with this country. Why can't we treat votes like money?
If my bank statement was off in any amount, I'd raise hell. How the hell are they counting? Are they making hash marks with sticks in the dirt on the playground? Then I could understand. Someone comes along and steps on the results and it's messed up, BUT THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE ADULTS DOING DEMOCRACY. AHHHHHHHHH
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
51. Interesting progression:Bush -21, -37, -21, -37; Kerry -26, -13, -25, -12
I'm not any mathematical genius but patterns are interesting. Almost looks like someone meant to increment or decrement in a pattern during a tabulation.

#1 shows Bush at -21 and Kerry at -26 (for a 5 loss for Kerry)

#2 shows Bush at -37 and Kerry at -13 for a 24 gain for Bush

#3 shows Bush at -21 and Kerry at -25 for a 4 loss for Kerry)

#4 shows Bush at -37 and Kerry at -12 for a 15 gain for Bush

Kerry loses 9 from total; Bush gains 39.

Looks like a program could have been written that incremented the Bush votes by 21 and 37 and siphoned off some Kerry votes (26 then 13, 25 then 12 (decreasing by 1 every other precinct).

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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #51
52. Wow, you're right. That's crazy. Send it to Bev and Arnebeck...
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #51
55. Simply same precincts counted twice!
At first I thought it was four precincts, but two counters of the same. Their results were almost identical (2 off). Basically, we won't know until the provisionals and absentee ballots are added. The figures seem inflated, with Bush having 58 more and Kerry having 39 more, but this is without the provisionals and absentees (which I should have noticed weren't included). This material is for two precincts only and is prematurely released. We need to see more to discern any pattern.
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #55
56. Votes totals don't include provisionals and absentee ballots
so they are should be fewer than the official totals.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 12:42 AM
Response to Original message
53. I think they use ES&S Optech scanners at these precincts... so
maybe the counters were fiddled with. How can an optiscan machine possibly read more votes than actually exist! This is extremely fishy!
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ClarkinMich Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 12:44 AM
Response to Original message
54. OK, not ready to scream smoking gun yet
but this IS quite interesting

For those that didn't delve into the details:

Orange County Florida

Official Precinct level data is available on the web:
http://www.ocfelections.com

The data posted on Recountflorida.com shows a LOSS of 5.2% of the total votes in the presidential race according to 1 counter in 2 precincts (97 fewer votes out of 1849). The results are verified by a second counter -- only 4 votes different).

People, be careful reading the data -- the official results show MORE votes than the results from the inspection/recount. Either they lost some ballots before the recount OR... somehow some got added to the "official" totals.

Now read this -- * won this county by 815 votes out of ~390,706. These 2 precincts represent 0.45% of the County total. BUT W WON THESE PRECINCTS BY a sizable margin -- 406 votes in the "official" results.

OFFICIAL from : http://www.ocfelections.com (TOTAL OF PRECINCTS 101 and 102)

Bush 1121 60.7%
Kerry 715 38.7%
Nader 6 0.3%
Badnarik 4 0.2%
Peroutka 1 0.1%
Overvotes 2 0.1%
TOTAL 1849

"Inspection" from http://www.recountflorida.com/reports/report1.htm
(results from counter = Susan)

Bush 1063 60.7%
Kerry 676 38.6%
Nader 6 0.3%
Badnarik 4 0.2%
Peroutka 2 0.1%
Overvotes 1 0.1%
total 1752

Sorry that the format is not great above... easy to paste into excel... space delimited. I also can email a spreadsheet to anyone that wants.

LOOK AT THE % DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN W AND KERRY!!!! ONLY 0.1% DIFFERENT -- WITH 5+% MORE VOTES!!!!!!!!! AND ONLY W and Kerry totals are different!!!

Now, let's dismiss some easy things:

Are they absentees -- I am not an election clerk and I have not talked to the election offices, BUT, I can say this, the absentees (all 67,999 of them) are listed separately on the Orange county website.

What about early voting -- Again, I am not an election clerk and I have not talked to the election offices, BUT, I can say this, 9 different Early voting sites are listed as their own precincts.

Provisional ballots? I do not have as clear an answer on this. Admittedly I did not look close, but I see no mention of provisionals on either the Florida recount or the orange county websites. If provisionals were counted and added to the official totals, then one would think they would have been given to those doing the recount, but stranger things have happened.... but WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT THEY HAD THE SAME % DISTRIBUTION FOR W & K to 0.1%????

Folks, I am trying really hard to suppress my instinct to put the tinfoil hat on and scream this is it, CAN ANYONE ELSE THINK OF A RATIONAL EXPLANATION FOR THIS??

Does anybody know this Florida recount organization or those that run it? Are they on the up and up? Just asking because I am new to all of this. I am not meaning to criticize anyone, but a good researcher checks his sources... I am confident that they are nothing but well-meaning, perfectly trustworthy citizen activists... I just don't know them. Corroboration that their posted data is good would be exciting.

One more question -- I know someone else posted something else on this forum, might have been weeks ago about different counts and EXACT SAME % breakdowns! Not sure even what state it was. I have no idea who or when. Anyone else remember? PM or email me.

OK - I can't resist the tinfoil hat -- PURE SPECULATION --- CONTINUE AT OWN RISK:

if all W leading precincts had 5% votes added to totals keeping the K/W ratio the same, in this county alone, W added about 1500 votes. We know from precinct 102, there might have been more to it than that, this was the easiest way I could think to to guess at how many votes might have been added. Since this county is about 5% of total Florida, this means maybe as many as 30k votes. Dangerous to make that statement, because it is an extrapolation of an extrapolation based on an algorithm that is only loosely derived from the data... yet the order of magnitude is probably right... W's margin in the whole state was ~381k votes, This alone can't explain that Florida swung.

KEEP THIS KICKED!!!!!

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rockedthevoteinMA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #54
57. kick n/t
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #54
72. So ... its late...the theory is that there is basically 5% padding on
FL votes then...because those percentages are waaay too close to be trusted., bookmarking
good work
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tinfoil_beret Donating Member (204 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:08 AM
Response to Original message
58. What if...?
At http://www.recountflorida.com/reports/report1.htm it says, "This was everything we were given access to. We are checking the location for provisionals."

The obvious question is, "Why did the BOE only give them access to a quantity of ballots representing only portions of the official tallies for those precincts?"

Aside from possibly neglecting provisional ballots, the possible answers include the following:

1) They didn't have any more ballots to show them.

2) The other votes all went to Kerry, and when they decided how many ballots to hide they tried to show similar ratios.

Proposition 1 would suggest manufactured votes which increased the total number of votes by 4.35% and 6.90% in precincts 101 and 102 respectively. That leads one to question why they would artificially inflate both candidates by different ratios for different precincts.

Of course, one could speculate that they took the totals for the republican and democratic candidates from the same precincts in 2000 and inflated the numbers by certain percentages to account for increased turnout. This would agree with the fact that the democratic percentage has changed less than one percent from 2000, where you might expect a greater difference between elections due to a whole slew of variables. I don't have the results from the 2000 Orange County precinct canvass. Furthermore, I don't know if they changed the precincts from 2000, as they did in Miami-Dade. I haven't investigated this angle to prove or disprove this possible theory.

Proposition 2 would suggest that they switched some Kerry votes to *. However, the number of votes switched in each precinct do not show any pattern as far as the ratios of the number of votes switched to any other numbers. For instance, if the ratios showed 5% of the total moved from Kerry to * you would have a pattern, but the ratios of the differences to the total votes in the precincts are different.

Of course, they may have simply withheld the provisional ballots for one reason or another. What might that reason entail?
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ClarkinMich Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
59. kick
don't forget Florida... this is more confvincing than ANYTHING out of Ohio so far.

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Peter Frank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #59
60. I wouldn't put much stock in...
...in the numbers just yet. The cumulative effect of all the discrepancies favor Bush. This larger picture will emerge as the thing to rattle his support among his uneasy supporters -- and as his arrogant policies continue to fail in the international arena, he will be unseated from without and within.

My greatest hope is that those who idolize him finally see that he's nothing more than a politician. And like all politicians, he exploits every opportunity to paint himself in a favorable light.

Those in power have more power.

Bush put in motion countless hypocritical initiatives. The beauty is that he really doesn't care anymore about the Republican party. He got his 4 more years & beat his Daddy. Too bad he didn't have Daddy's propensity for restraint.

If McCain is on the ticket in 2008 -- he's got my vote; but if Bush gets impeached before then -- I'll be laughing my ass off at the absolute power that corrupted so absolutely in his hands. What a deluded messianic dolt!

...makes me want more of Ralph Reed.
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ClarkinMich Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #60
69. Look at the data again
RECOUNT TOTALS
* 1063
K 76
*margin = 387

OFFICIAL TOTALS
* 1121
K 715
*margin = 406

W's margin increased by 19 votes... doesn't seem like a lot, but if this is a trend, it is important... the % changes's are very interesting.... see my post above

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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #60
70. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Dem2theMax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 05:09 AM
Response to Original message
66. Kicking for the day crew.
:kick:

Good thing someone stays up late. :)
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
68. MORE VOTES THAN VOTERS AGAIN!
Thank you.
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passy Donating Member (780 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-15-04 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
71. Look here for absentee and early voting (scroll down)
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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 02:06 AM
Response to Original message
73. It's in the tabulators
Edited on Fri Dec-17-04 02:08 AM by libertypirate
If it is counting up both candidates, then the results are being tabulated by percentages over a range which looks to be calculated at the county level.

Any one want to refute this?

If not they should impound those machines, yesterday.
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gulogulo Donating Member (208 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #73
74. Nope,
the recount was wrong.

http://www.recountflorida.com/modules.php?op=modload&na...

UPDATE 12/15/04: The ballot inspection results are based on the assumption that all precinct ballots were presented. The provisional ballots were accidentally left out! We are sorry for any confusion fom it. Please consider the reports incomplete.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-17-04 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. Hi gulogulo!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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