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IT'S GRAPHIC: KERRY VOTE TALLIES VS. EXIT POLLS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:10 AM
Original message
IT'S GRAPHIC: KERRY VOTE TALLIES VS. EXIT POLLS
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 07:52 AM by TruthIsAll
The data has been shown in a variety of graph formats.
This format should make it even more clear: He was robbed.

Image

LOOK AT OREGON'S 0.80% DEVIATION.
OREGONIANS VOTE BY MAIL. THEY USE PAPER BALLOTS. WE SHOULD LEARN FROM THEM AND THE REST OF THE WORLD. THROW OUT THE DAMN MACHINES.

LET'S VOTE BY MAIL.
IF WE CAN FILL OUT AN IRS FORM EVERY YEAR, WE CAN FILL OUT A BALLOT EVERY FOUR YEARS.

YOU CAN'T STEAL VOTES WHEN
1) YOU CAN'T HACK A COMPUTER
2) YOU KNOW THEY WILL BE HAND-COUNTED

IT'S OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE EXCEPT THE DEMOCRATS:
REPUBLICANS NEED TO CHEAT TO WIN.
FOR SOME REASON, THE DEMOCRATS ARE WILLING TO LET THEM.

THE ODDS ARE ONE OUT OF 13.5 TRILLION THAT VOTE TALLY DEVIATIONS BEYOND THE EXIT POLL MOE IN 16 STATES (ALL IN FAVOR OF BUSH) WAS DUE TO CHANCE.

IT'S A SIMPLE CALCULATION IN EXCEL. IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE. IT'S JUST THE BINOMIAL FUNCTION, WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN USED FOR 200 YEARS.

ASK THE PIT BOSSES IN LAS VEGAS. THEY KNOW WHAT THE ODDS ARE ALL ABOUT. THAT'S WHY A ROULETTE WHEEL HAS 38 SLOTS: 18 BLACK, 18 RED AND TWO OTHERS: 0 AND 00. THERE'S A REASON FOR THIS. THE CASINO IS IN THE BUSINESS OF MAKING MONEY. SO THEY FIX THE ODDS TO MAKE SURE THEY CANNOT LOSE. THEY'RE GUARANTEED 5%. THAT'S CALLED THE "VIG".

WHAT WAS BUSH'S VIG?

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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:15 AM
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EMunster Donating Member (477 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Posting too. It's just relatively new in our culture.
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DemonFighterLives Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Do you doubt any voting irregularities?
No we just don't have monolithic support for B*sh and the vote totals round cheer.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #7
17. What the hell is a concention?
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myschkin Donating Member (488 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #3
30. anomalie

Truthisall, maybe you make a graphic concerning the exit polls discrepancy and the WEST- and EAST-states... This is so curious! Almost all western states (left half of US) have no shift or a shift versus Kerry. Shift versus Kerry: all are western states, except of Tennessee.

Time zone?

Make a graphic about exit polls discrepancy, west-side / east-side of america, timezones - please!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. Kerry Vote/Exit Poll Deviations across Time Zones
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 10:53 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry Exit Poll Deviations across Time Zones

Note: The averages are unweighted 
When weighted, Kerry got about 50.5% based on exit polls vs.
Bush.

Eastern: 20 of 21 states deviated to Bush (11 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 53.1% Exit Poll declined to 50.5% in the vote
tally.

Central: 11 of 16 states deviated to Bush (4 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 43.4% Exit Poll declined to 42.4% in the vote
tally.

Mountain: 7 of 8 states deviated to Bush (NONE exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 41.4% Exit Poll declined to 39.7% in the vote
tally.

Pacfic: 2 of 5 states deviated to Bush (1 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 50.8% Exit Poll declined to 50.3% in the vote
tally.

A total of 40 out of 50 states deviated to Bush (16 exceeded
3%)



ZONE	Num	Over3%Exit	Vote	Diff
East	21	11	53.1	50.5	-2.7
Cent	16	4	43.4	42.4	-1.0
Mount	8	0	41.4	39.7	-1.7
Pacif	5	1	50.8	50.3	-0.4
						
Total	50	16	47.2	45.7	-1.5


	Zone	State	Exit	Vote	Diff
1	e	DE	58.5	53.5	-5.0
2	e	NH	55.4	50.5	-4.9
3	e	VT	65.0	60.2	-4.8
4	e	SC	46.0	41.4	-4.6
5	e	NC	48.0	44.0	-4.0
6	e	NY	63.0	59.2	-3.8
7	e	CT	58.5	55.1	-3.4
8	e	RI	64.0	60.6	-3.4
9	e	MA	66.0	62.6	-3.4
10	e	PA	54.4	51.0	-3.4
11	e	OH	52.1	49.0	-3.1
12	e	FL	50.5	47.5	-3.0
13	e	WV	45.3	43.4	-1.8
14	e	IN	41.0	39.4	-1.6
15	e	GA	43.0	41.4	-1.6
16	e	NJ	55.0	53.5	-1.5
17	e	KY	41.0	40.0	-1.0
18	e	MI	52.5	51.5	-1.0
19	e	ME	54.8	54.1	-0.7
20	e	MD	57.0	56.6	-0.4
21	e	VA	45.2	45.5	0.3
					
1	c	NE	36.8	32.3	-4.4
2	c	AL	41.0	37.0	-4.0
3	c	MS	43.3	40.0	-3.3
4	c	MN	54.5	51.5	-3.0
5	c	LA	44.5	42.4	-2.1
6	c	IL	57.0	55.0	-2.0
7	c	WI	52.5	50.5	-2.0
8	c	MO	47.5	46.0	-1.5
9	c	IA	50.7	49.5	-1.2
10	c	AR	46.6	45.5	-1.1
11	c	OK	35.0	34.0	-1.0
12	c	TX	37.0	38.4	1.4
13	c	TN	41.5	43.0	1.5
14	c	SD	37.8	39.4	1.6
15	c	ND	34.0	36.4	2.4
16	c	KS	35.0	37.4	2.4
					
1	m	UT	30.5	27.6	-2.9
2	m	ID	33.5	30.6	-2.9
3	m	AZ	47.0	44.4	-2.6
4	m	NM	51.3	49.5	-1.8
5	m	CO	49.1	47.5	-1.6
6	m	WY	30.9	29.6	-1.3
7	m	NV	49.4	48.5	-0.9
8	m	MT	39.8	39.8	0.0
					
1	p	AK	40.5	36.1	-4.4
2	p	WA	55.0	53.5	-1.4
3	p	OR	51.2	52.0	0.8
4	p	HI	53.3	54.5	1.2
5	p	CA	54.0	55.6	1.6

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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:17 AM
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. Your lack of ability to see the evidence is not my concern
You are obviously new and have not read the very basic information on voter fraud here. It is not just the statistics, it is 29 Ohio counties with more votes (for B*sh) then registered voters. It is Jim Crow voter suppression. It is late night (2.5 hr) exit poll server crashes with sudden conflating of numbers for B*sh. It is unprecedented 96 to over 100% voter turnout in favor of B*sh. It is bizarre lock downs during vote counting. It is hundreds of unexplained "glitches" causing over counts for B*sh. It is hundreds of thousands of voter complaints. You need to read and educate yourself before attacking a decent post.
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mattclearing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
31. It's not very nice to walk into a place and start condescending to people.
Perhaps you should reconsider your comments.
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myschkin Donating Member (488 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 09:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
32. welcome

You have a lang beard - but what do you say that 9:1 (or 10:1) of the electronic glitches are going in favour of Bush?

Twain would be frightened by this...

See: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

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buddysmellgood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
36. Don't you want to live in a democracy? Votes are the currency of
democracy. They have to be counted correctly in order for the system to work.
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Florida_Geek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
2. Very good
IMHO around 3% of the Kerry votes were moved to Bush, and a second chart would be interesting that shows the percentage of votes by Touchscreens/ Opt Scanners...

The key is also like Texas which is heavy Bush country, there are less Kerry votes to move.
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november3rd Donating Member (653 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
5. looks like a problem with the exit polls
but we better check it out just to be sure the vote wasn't manipulated
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #5
39. how come the election polls are only wrong in Bush's favor?
it doesn't look like a problem with the election polls at all. It looks like fraud.
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livvy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:26 AM
Response to Original message
8. A map based on 4PM exit poll data
I used this site during the campaign because I liked the way he gathered and used the data. I felt he consistently gave an unbiased report of the latest polls. He has tons of data that he has saved.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/exit-polls.html
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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:51 AM
Response to Original message
13. That graph pretty much sums everything up
You may have answered this question repeatedly, but what are the chances that 40 out of 50 states would shift in Bush's direction (disregarding the margin of error? It should be much closer to 25.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:58 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. No, the number of states outside the MOE is what make the election
results nearly impossible, indicating a nearly 100% chance of a systemic skew or tampering. I believe that is TIA's main point (TIA please correct me if need be).
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #15
26. BOTH are indicative. The number AND size of the deviations.
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 08:38 AM by TruthIsAll
He just was curious as to the odds of 40 out of 50 states going to Bush, regardless of deviation.

In fact, showing these odds has the advantage of it being more easily understood by the math-challenged masses than the more dramatic 1 in 13.5 trillion odds using MOE.

Once you bring up MOE, standard deviation, sample size, etc., eyes will glaze over.

Not only that, the naysayers will just build more strawmen TO DIVERT DISCUSSION as soon as the margin of error is mentioned. Avoiding mOE helps eliminate freeper attempts to fog the issue.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. What are the chances that 40 states go Bush, but INSIDE the MOE?
(for comparison)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. ODDS OF AT LEAST 40 OF 50 TO BUSH, REGARDLESS OF DEVIATION: 1 OF 83,818!
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 08:22 AM by TruthIsAll
THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IS APPLICABLE FOR THIS TYPE OF A CALCULATION:

IN EXCEL, THE PROBABILITY (P) THAT AT LEAST N OUT OF M=50 STATES GO TO BUSH, ASSUMING IT IS EQUALLY LIKELY TO GO TO KERRY (S=.50) IS:

P = 1 - BINOMDIST(N-1, M, S, TRUE)

THEREFORE, PLUGGING IN THE PARAMETERS, THE PROBABILITY P IS EQUAL TO: P= 1-BINOMDIST(39,50,0.5,TRUE)= 0.0000119

THE ODDS ARE 1 /P = ONE out of 83,818!

HERE ARE THE ODDS FOR N STATES:
N Probability Odds: 1 out of
24 0.6640945 2
25 0.5561376 2
28 0.2399438 4
30 0.1013194 10
33 0.0164196 61
36 0.0013011 769
39 0.0000451 22,169
40 0.0000119 83,818
41 0.0000028 356,246
43 0.0000001 9,529,811
45 0.0000000 475,076,181
50 0.0000000 #DIV/0!


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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Thanks TIA
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. HERE ARE THE ODDS FOR 24-50 STATES... AND FOR 16 OF 50 EXCEEDING THE MOE
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 08:49 AM by TruthIsAll
HERE ARE THE ODDS FOR N STATES:
>N Probability Odds: 1 out of
24 0.6640945 2
25 0.5561376 2
28 0.2399438 4
30 0.1013194 10
33 0.0164196 61
36 0.0013011 769
39 0.0000451 22,169
40 0.0000119 83,818
41 0.0000028 356,246
43 0.0000001 9,529,811
45 0.0000000 475,076,181
50 0.0000000 #DIV/0!

The probability P that AT LEAST 16 of 50 states would exceed the MOE:
P = 5.2402527E-14

The corresponding oddS:
1 out of 19,083,049,268,519!

That's 1 out of 19 TRILLION.

It's only 1 out of 13.5 TRILLION if you count DC as the 51st state.
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jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #24
33. ??????
I made this post before on another thread, but nobody chose to answer. I'll try again?

Concerning BYUs exit poll accuracy, Dr. Freeman said this:

True to their word, predictions in this years contests were quite accurate. In the Utah presidential election, for example, they predicted Bush 70.8%, and Kerry 26.5%. The actual was Bush 71.1%, Kerry 26.4%. Consistently accurate exit poll predictions from student volunteers, including in this presidential election, gives us good reason to presume valid data from the worlds most professional exit poll enterprise.

Mitofsky had Kerry at 30.5%. Isnt Dr. Feeman contradicting his own argument?

New Hampshire had the largest MOE and the exit polls were wrong. I believe Utah was wrong. Please figure the odds for me, I'm not a mathematician
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #18
25. Deleted message
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buddysmellgood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #25
37. Your confusing predictive polls conducted before the election with exit
polls. Exit polls are a sample of something that has happened, not a prediction of how people might vote. Exit polls are historically very accurate.
That aside, your contention is wrong. Most polls showed Bush lacking the support needed for and incumbent to win. The predictive polls only back up the argument that something is very screwed up. A patriot would want to see the votes counted properly. Are you a patriot?
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #25
38. Well, heavy on the fact that Clinton
had an impact here in AR, and in the last 12-24 hours, too. Probably some of it was missed by the exit polls.
AR plus NV plus NM = 269 Electoral College votes for John Kerry, an Electoral tie. AR plus IA plus NM = 270 Electoral votes for Kerry. Bush carried IA with 10,059 vote lead over Kerry. 4000 dead people were listed on the voter registration rolls in IA, according to AP. 5030 votes from Bush would turn Iowa around, and who knows how many votes Kerry would pick up in a recheck of Disqualified and Provisional ballots there? Maybe 1000, that leaves 4030. How many glitches and dead voters favored GOP in Iowa.
Here in AR, they've already found an error in just two counties that affects over 50,000 votes in a statewide race, in just two counties, and that's not including the other 75, which had yet to be checked. We had a power failure in LR, the state's largest city, on election day. They are having to, at SOS, miss the deadline for certification and tabulation due to erros.
Perhaps we do need to focus on how exit polls do sometimes miss data.
SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Little Rock CBS tv affiliate KTHV here showed Kerry at 51%, Bush at 40-percentile among "probable" voters.
Meanwhile, Clinton was still campaigning for Kerry in those last 12 hours. SurveyUSA polls showed a graph with Kerry at 46.4% and rising rapidly, Bush at 50.7 and dropping slightly. And this was with Clinton campaigning. Clinton is from western part of state, too, which is where Dems needed help the most.
You need to glimpse your history texts a bit more, too. This is about more than just sore losers. This ain't a ball game.
This is the first time in history that an Electoral College-only President ever got re-elected. It's also the first time in history that one party will control all three branches of the federal government for more than 2 1/2 years.
On top of that, there are all kinds of spooky things about recent history:
1. the death of Mel Carnahan, the Senator who was about to tip the Senate to a Tie in 2000
2. The death of Paul Wellstone, also about the tip the Senate to a tie in 2002. Both died in the same type of plane crash, both investigations were sloppy.
3. All kinds of bizarre and vague Presidential powers, some admittedly added on before W:
a. Drug War police powers to break into fed-sponsored housing w/o search warrant, product of Sr. Bush
b. Line Item Veto--some say is Unconstitutional, given under Clinton II by a GOP Congress
c. Patriot Act, with vague powers of incarceration and no delineated terms or conditions for detainees of "suspected terrorisn" and no guidelines
d. Homeland Security Dept. with vague powers including possibly surveillance powers.
e. Trillions of dollars in federal debt.
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #25
40. none of that disputes the exit polls
emotional connection etc etc...... how does any of this change the accuracy of the exit polls? People said they voted for Kerry and yet bush won.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
14. Thats an excellent graph. However, paper ballots, sent through the
mail could not be "secret". Do we want to abandon that tradition in our elections?
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:08 AM
Response to Reply #14
20. Neither is an paper absentee ballot"secret." Aren't the
paper ballots in Oregon run through machines--like opti-scan ballots?

Absentee voting is voting by mail. In Florida, we receive opti-scan ballots that are run through the machines, usually starting a few days before the election. These machines are counters with modem capacity.

Eliminate the modems and the imminently hackable central tabulating computers, if we cannot trust the results.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #20
29. Agreed. Hand count them. Like they do in Canada.
It's so obvious it makes me sick.

The fact that they don't do it here is proof enough that they plan to cheat.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #14
21. They can and are kept secret
My absentee ballot in Florida had a privacy envelope that you put your ballot in before you mailed it in a larger envelope with your signature on it.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:11 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. So... um... they NEVER get opened?
:)
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #23
34. If the absentee ballots are deemed qualified, i.e., signature matches that
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 10:37 AM by flpoljunkie
on file and voter is legally registered, the "secrecy" envelopes ought to be put in a pile where they become "anonymous." Of course, we are relying on the honesty of the election workers not to look at the ballot before putting it in the pile.

Absentee or voting by mail might do away with votes being disqualified because they were cast in the wrong precinct.

Anyone here know how they actually handle the absentee ballots in Florida and whether there are any statewide rules for their processing.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #14
28. Good point. No mail. And hand count.
.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
22. Recount is chapping some people's asses hugh...
Come up with watered down analogies. Come up with get over it comments. Come up with whatever you got...doesn't change the fact that bushitler cheated and we INTEND TO DEMONSTRATE! Even nazis should be interested.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 11:52 PM
Response to Original message
41. But many large discrepancies are not swing states
TIA,

I thought the idea behind the big fraudchilada was to hack the vote in the swing states. This graph clearly shows that there were large red shifts in SC, NE, AL, NY, RI, MA, etc. Not much point in hacking those is there? And if instead of the electoral vote, you wanted to hack the popular vote, why is the discrepancy so small in CA and TX and why are they shifted blue?

Of course, as usual, I do NOT mean to rule out the possibility of election fraud!
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genieroze Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 11:56 PM
Response to Original message
42. Wow, what's with al the deleted messages, you must of annoyed
some freeper real bad.
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garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-04 12:00 AM
Response to Original message
43. exit poll source?
there seems to be so much differeing exit poll data, can you cite the source for these numbers?

thanks
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