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OF 89 NATIONWIDE RANDOM MACHINE GLICHES, 84 KERRY VOTES CAME UP BUSH!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:33 AM
Original message
OF 89 NATIONWIDE RANDOM MACHINE GLICHES, 84 KERRY VOTES CAME UP BUSH!
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 01:19 AM by TruthIsAll
TALK ABOUT A SMOKING GUN.
I WON'T EVEN ATTEMPT TO CALCULATE THE ODDS OF THIS. AND THE INCIDENTS WERE SPREAD AROUND THE NATION IN SEPARATE PRECINCTS.

ON EDIT: BELIEVE ME, I DID THIS WITHOUT KNOWING THAT ANOTHER DUER, SKIDS, HAS ALSO JUST POSTED A SIMLAR ANALYSIS. GREAT. MORE CONFIRMATION.

ON EDIT: CHECKED IT. THERE ARE 89 INCIDENTS, NOT 91.

https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation

TO COME UP WITH THESE STATISTICS, I FILTERED "MACHINE PROBLEMS" FROM THE 40,000 VOTER INCIDENT DATABASE. THEN I SEARCHED FOR THE NAME "KERRY" IN THE DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM IN ORDER TO EXTRACT THOSE INCIDENTS IN WHICH IT WAS INDICATED JUST WHO THE VOTER WAS TRYING TO VOTE FOR. OF COURSE, AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, IN EVERY CASE, BOTH NAMES (KERRY AND BUSH) CAME UP, TYPICALLY AS: "TRIED TO VOTE FOR KERRY BUT THE MACHINE REGISTERED BUSH".

THERE WERE SURELY MANY MORE INSTANCES OF THIS TYPE WHICH WENT UNREPORTED. BUT THIS IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE.

OF THE 89 INCIDENTS:
84 KERRY VOTES CAME UP BUSH ON THE SCREEN
2 BUSH VOTES CAME UP KERRY
3 WERE UNCLEAR

MOST OF THE INCIDENTS WERE IN FLORIDA AND OHIO.

HERE IS A FULL DESCRIPTION, COPIED EXACTLY AS IT APPEARS IN THE DATABASE.
.....................................................................

State County Incident
1.Florida Palm Beach Couple voted for Kerry -- when confirmed vote, came out Bush. Called in eleciton poll supervisor, who got same result. Continued to use machine.

2.Florida Miami-Dade Andrea called to pass on anecdotal information that this happened; she has no first-hand information...voter machines would select wrong candidate when voter selected J. Kerry - G. Bush would be selected.

3.Florida Miami-Dade When voter pushed button for Kerry, Bush came up on the screen.

4.Florida Miami-Dade In precinct 249 we are getting reports that voters are pushing Kerry button, but Bush keep's coming up.

5. Florida Miami-Dade Voter attempted to vote for Kerry and ballot showed vote for Bush instead; she left poll; she tried to clear it and it wouldn't clear; so she cast vote with Bush instead showing.

6 New Mexico Bernalillo Reported that voters tried to vote for Kerry and Peroutka's name was recorded.

7 Texas Travis Machines are confusing, if you straight Dem, then go back to review or change, a vote for Kerry is changed to a vote for Bush. But there is no paper receipt to verify the problem or if the vote was actually cast for Bush. Voter just received a warning from her precinct chair to that effect.

8 Florida Palm Beach County Woman went to vote and used electronic voting machine. The two presidential candidates' names came up on the screen, Bush was first and Kerry second. She said she carefully clicked on Kerry but the check mark appeared next to Bush's name. She called someone over to help her and that woman told her to check on the mistaken check mark and it would remove the check mark. Then she could try again and check on Kerry's name. She did and it worked the second time. She was concerned that it took her two times to get her vote right.

9 Texas Bear County Checked Kerry and it showed Bush as the person she voted for. Calling for her Aunt.

10 Washington Snohomish caller calling for sister. contact information is for sister who experienced problem. polling place uses automated voting machine. voter selected kerry on ballot and reviewed results; showed a vote for bush. repeated at least 3 times before reults reflected kerry vote. told poll worker who responded that it had been a common occurrence already that morning.

11 Florida MIami-Dade Voters selected Kerry and machine recorded Bush

12 Florida Miami-Dade Says brother told him he voted for Kerry on electronic machine and machine recorded vote for Bush.

13 Virginia Fairfax County Voter went to vote early (Sat.) at county office in Reston. Filled out absentee ballot application and then voted on-site. First time he received a summary report the machine said he voted for Bush. He had not. He voted for Kerry. States pretty anal guy and the buttons are not that close together. Told workers on-site of problem, but they were convinced it was his fault. He was able to correct the problem, but in doing so had to push the Kerry button several times. The new/final summary report showed he voted for Kerry and not Bush, but his concern is that there is a problem with the machine and is concerned about tabulation. Voter reports it was a 10th District machine.



14 Florida Dade caller, a volunteer poll watcher, reported that three people complained that their vote for Kerry, had shown as a vote for Bush, after they reviewed their ballots.

15 Pennsylvania Philadelphia One machine malfunctioning; could not vote for libraterian or constitutional party candidate, voted for kerry; machine taken out of service

16 New Mexico Bernalillo Voter pressed name box for Kerry/Edwards, Libertarian light came on. Reproducible problem, persistence by voter allowed correct vote; probably ballot misalignment. Machine Serial No. 010154

17 Florida Palm Beach Caller voted for a presidential candidate, but when recap showed up it showed the incorrect presidential vote (she voted for Kerry and it showed up as Bush). She got a volunteer to help her, but wanted to file a comlaint.

18 Texas Florida calling about woman in FL who was on CNN who says she voted for Kerry and other democrats but when she went to vote her ballot, votes had all switched to republican. She called in poll worker who told her to clear machine, which she refused to do. Attorney at poll called in and he suggested she be allowed to vote at another machine. He believes serial # of that machine should be recorded and that machine and all others like it need to be sequestered. Critical that machines be guarded.

19 New York erie kerry/edwards name partially covered - can only see Edwards name. heard on raio WBLK similiar problem reported (93.7 fm) didn't complain at site. becuase didn't think it was a problem until he heard on radio.

20 Ohio Mahoney Poland-- Review pages from Kerry to Bush and people may not notice.Person heard it on radio talk show.Alson in

21 PA. Mercer County, Shenago township heard thatv if I wanted to vote party ticket, machine would lock up.ran out of paper ballots, told people to go home and come back later.

22 Florida Palm Beach Person is reporting that someone he knows voted for Kerry using touch schrren machine but the summary of the vote showed that he voted for Bush.

23 Florida Brower Voter voted for Kerry; when she reviewed the ballot it showed that she voted for Bush. Poll worker said that has been happening to many others.

24 New York Queens Lever on machine for Kerry/Edwards does not work

25 Ohio Mahoning Mother woting on electronic machine-pressed Kerry then next page of ballot notices vote recorded for Bush. Has a pollworker reset machine and them voted again for Kerry.

26 Florida Lake Caller is concerned that voting machines are illegitimately discarding votes for Kerry. Believes electronic voting machines are rigged. Believes some initiatives are displayed along partisan favoritism. Entire development is pro-Kerry, landloards are all Bush supporters.

27 Ohio Mahoning Caller's father voted on touch screen cmahine - for kerry edwards - when he went to check his vote - the vote had recorded Bush cheney ... he had to try 3 times to get the vote to kerry edwards. He told teh poll worker whose response was simply that the machine was tempermental.

28 Florida Pinellas Voter selected Kerry and the voting machine showed that they had selected Bush - it took her many tried to correct.

29 Florida Broward - machines switching are switching vote kerry to bush -- this ahappens prior to confirmation screen.
other voters complaining about the same thing

30 Virginia Fairfax Kerry/Democratic vote became Republican. Tried to make it work all day; Mom & Dad went reopened; heard them say broken all day. Machines left to right - 1st machine on left - machine # 1175.

31 Texas Harris Caller said when she voted a straight democratic ticket, the vote did not register for the presidential (Kerry) vote

32 South Carolina Charleston Voted today, when pressed 1 party democratic choice Kerry did not light up, but others did on ticket. Did not report to anyone at polling place, but heard on radio that people were having problem.

33 South Carolina Richland Micro voting machine: hit independent; blinking lights started flashing; he could not change the vote; he ended up voting for Nader, but wanted to vote for Kerry.{cr}{newline}

34 Texas Tarrant Voted early around 10/14 electronically, had trouble with voting machine. First screen chose Democrat party, 2nd screen "Bush Edwards State Sen, John Kerry couldn't change or remove vote, then went to proposition, wants to know if her vote was accurately recorded.

35 Texas Harris Not sure she voted for Kerry, voted straight party ticket

36 Texas Harris Voter voted on the first early day to vote in Houston (october 18th) by electronic machine. Vother chose Kerry and when she checked her ballot she found that bush was selected. This happened one or two more times. By the third or fourth attempt kerry showed up as selected and voter submitted her vote.

37 New Jersey Unknown. Report of machine problems in San Antonio and Austin TX. Voters who voted for Kerry noticed that the machine reported a vote for Bush. When this problem was addressed by the pollworkers, the change toa vote for Kerry locked in a vot for the entire democratic ticket.

38 New Jersey Bergen Touch screen machine. When caller pressed screen for Kerry nothing happened. It was only after several attempts and after pressing screen for candidates in other races that pressing the Kerry section worked. After voting, the caller discussed with his wife and she had the same problem.

39 Illinois Cook Punched Kerry Edwards, things chad for Bush-Cheney was punched on the actual card. Punched Obama, and Obama was punched out.

40 Illinois Cook Voter went to vote (Punch Ballot) with wife. John Kerry is first punhc; GWB is second option. When looked at ticket, second was already pressed, tried to vote for JK. Wife had same experience (used a different machine)

41 Pennsylvania Philadelphia the light for Kerry did not light up whatsoever. Pressed #1 for all Democratic candidates and no light for Kerry went on, the lights underneath Kerry which may have been the rest of the Democratic candidates were blinking. The light by Kerry was not blinking. Then hit vote. Most voters did not speak English. Most Haitian Americans who only speak Creole. Did report problem to polling official.

42 Pennsylvania Philadelphia Machine was off when entered poll. The light for Kerry did not light up whatsoever. Pressed #1 for all Democratic candidates and no light for Kerry went on, the lights underneath Kerry which may have been the rest of the Democratic candidates were blinking. The light by Kerry was not blinking. Then hit vote. Most voters did not speak English. Most Haitian Americans who only speak Creole. Did report problem to polling official.

43 Pennsylvania Philadelphia The vote button was placed too low and difficult to see. All the instructions are at eye level, but the vote button is at the lowest right hand corner of the machine. {cr}{newline}{cr}{newline}The candidate button for Kerry/Edwards-->the button to press is besides Edwards name not Kerry's name, so it's confusing.

44 California Sacramento Voter at polling place: Benvenito's Restaurant in Boynton Beach, FL, reported that electronic ballot erred in selecting Bush when she clicked Kerry. Advise election official who addressed issue. Evidently fixed.



45 Washington Snohomish Both caller and her husband said when they pulled up their electronic ballots, Bush was already checked. When they tried to switch it to vote for Kerry, had very difficult time unchecking the Bush box. Ultimately were successful.

46 Washington Snohomish Machine would enter incorrect candidates repeatedly. Kerry votes changed to Bush and others. Other voters reported similar problem.

47 Colorado Weld Caller voted on thursday at the Del Camino Center, Fredrick. Firestone CO. Voting was with touch screen Diebold machines. when voting for Kerry-Edwards, the electronic button did not light up and did not appear to register the vote. Caller's votes for other things did light up. Has called the newspapaers and TV stations about the problem. He has hired a lawyer but has not heard anything back from them about this. He demanded (and was given) a paper ballot. He is very upset about this and is alerting everyone he possibly can. {cr}{newline}{cr}{newline}ADDENDUM --{cr}{newline}I called this caller back and let him know that we are having EFF attys look into the problem. He informed me that an attorney in Greeley CO is going to go to the polling place to take al ook at the machines, but he did not get her name. He also informed me that the machines did not give a summary screen at what was supposed to be the end of the voting process.



48 Florida Palm Beach Caller said when he went to vote, the ballot was repeatedly pre-selected for Kerry.

49 Georgia Clayton Upon filling out her ballot (on touch-screen system), voter selected "Kerry" as part of a straight-Democrat ticket, but it displayed "Bush" instead. She called poll worker over to look at it, who reset her ballot and had her re-do it entirely. This was successful. Upon hearing her make a commotion in line about it, another voter ahead of her reported the same problem.{cr}{newline}

50 Georgia Douglas Every time hit "John Kerry" name "x" would jump to "George Bush" happened two times

51 Georgia Douglas Pushed Kerry Edwards, the x went to Bush/Cheney, she tried this three times, went to next page, went back to Kerry page, then re-entered Kerry and the X went to Kerry. Also, message says need picture ID.

52 Georgia Liberty Voted Kerry -- pushed that button, jumped to Bush. Called for help; was able to remedy 2nd time also went to option above, not the one voter selected, but she was able to vote as she wanted in the end.

53 Kansas Johnson County pushed Kerry/Edwards and it selected Bush/Cheney

54 New York new york Jenny wanted to vote for Kerry under the working families party, not the democratic party, however row e of the voting machine (for working families party) was jammed. Instead of offering a paper ballot, the poll workers instructed Jenny to vote for Kerry under the democratic party, which she didn't want to do. Eventually, she was able to unjam the machine so that she could vote according to her preference, but her sister voted on the same machine and had the same problem, so she's afraid that it's going to jam again. Jenny said that a lot of the rows for the smaller parties seemed jammed or "tight."

55 New York queens The John Kerry chad was hard to punch. None of the other chads for the democratic party candidates were hard to punch.

56 New York New York County Volunteer for Kerry-Edwards was working outside handing out flyers and voters were leaving from this polling site complaining that the machines were not working. They are now having voters use paper ballots. Voters are leaving frustrated without voting.

57 Georgia Fulton He thinks that someone at church told his wife that voting machine entered vote for wrong candidate (tried to vote for Kerry, the machine registered a vote for Bush). He does not know any of the details or where the polling place is located.

58 Florida Broward Machine changed candidate he was voting for (3rd machine from right, precinct 17M) Kerry highlighted, on review saw Brown(?) for president. Asked poll worker for help and poll worker had him start over. Voted successfully 2nd time.

59 Florida Broward Voted for Kerry but machine showed Bush.

60 Florida Broward After voter voted for Kerry, and when they tried to move to the next screen, if heel of hand brushed against screen, which was apaprently happening, vote switched to Nader and got cast for Nader. Kerry Poll Watcher said some had been caught and corrected, but who knows about all. Poll worker not helpful to EP mobile attorney. Was iVotronic machine

61 Florida Palm Beach Co. Two voters, voting early, used electronic voting machine. They chose John Kerry for president but when they reviewed their choices before submitting their ballots, they found that George Bush was selected instead and they couldn't change the choice.

62 Florida Broward Co Two unrelated people (taxi driver & store clerk told our volunteer they had voted on touch screens this week and screen showed they had voted for Bush when they know they voted for Kerry -- they got someone to change it before their vote was filed.

63 Florida Broward At review screen, selection changed from Kerry to Bush "before my eyes" as voter pushed red button just before. Voter filed complaint with Kerry lawyer in polling place and told poll worker of problem, who said, "nothing could be done."

64 Florida Broward 3 or more women told person they voted "down the street" (precinct 39V) from the post office at 4429 Hollywood Blvd. They voted for Kerry but the name Bush came up on the sceen at the end, when they voted, when vote was processed

65 Florida Broward Voter pressed "Kerry" on machine, but another name was indicated on the summary page. Voter was able to review & change the vote satisfactorily.

66 Florida Broward I voted for Kerry and after the screen ask me to write in my vote. I ask a poll worker to assist me. The pollworker ask the repairman and I was allow to vote.

67 Florida Broward Upon reviewing her ballot before casting her vote, the voter noticed that "Bush/Cheney" appeared even though she had chosen "Kerry/Edwards".

68 Florida Palm Beach Caller has difficulty reading, so she invited me to accompanyher into the voting booth. Three times she touched the Kerry/Edwards frame on her screen and the machine did not highlight her selection. She was only able to correct this on the final screen that listed her selections. teh "change" directions were very small and easy to miss at the top of the screen. Caller was able to vote for Kerry/Edwards usiing this screen. Which directed her back to the original screen presidential vote screen. This time the machine accepted her selection.



69 Florida Palm Beach Went to vote for Kerry and Bush popped up immediately. I called for help. Woman/precinct worker told him to touch screen for Bush and it popped up again for Kerry. Successfully voted for Kerry on second time trying.

70 Florida Palm Beach Selected John Kerry/ green check came up in George Bush's name. Called over poll worker and they got creen to read John Kerry. She stated "it made me wonder if the machines are rigged."

71 Florida Palm Beach While voting for Presidential candidate Kerry - had problems with accessing his name. Bush's name kept popping and taking "priority". On the review however it showed Kerry so voter completed vote.

72 Florida Palm Beach Voter touched "Kerry" and Bush's name registered. I called poll worker and she told me how to erase Bush's name. We know of three today - maybe more!

73 Florida Palm Beach Went to vote for Kerry and Bush popped up. Immediately called for help. Woman/precinct worker told him to touch screen on Bush and it popped up again for Kerry. Sucessfully voted for Kerry on second time.

74 Florida W. Palm Beach Some people vote Bush instead of Kerry - concept of callabration - okay understand - works on second time. Democratic poll watcher inside aware of the prolbem.

75 Florida Broward Unknown name came up on review screen, Walter F. Browne - after Kerry selected. Asked for help from election's worker, who suggested he do it over. He retried, got same result, and finalized vote without accurate screen.

76 Ohio franklin machine not working for kerry monitors whispering
New Mexico Bernalillo When water hit one button another light came on. Was able to corect. Hit for Kerry and other candidate lit up (Green)

77 New Mexico Bernalillo I assisted William Jones who lives in asssisted living; he pressed the "Kerry" button and the red light lit up "Libertarian," several names down the screen

78 New Mexico Bernalillo Voter selection does not light up, other selections do. typically preside3ntial candidaTES from Kerry to 3rd party. Voter persistence seems to help

79 New Mexico Bernalillo Voting Kerry, Perotka (sp?) comes up. 2 reports made through moveon to hotline

80 Ohio Mahoning Pressed Kerry button, another candidate came up (not Bush)! Second try, it worked.

81 Ohio Mahoning Selected Kerry and Bush's name came up. Selected Kerry a second time and only then did it remain Kerry. Her sister also had the same problem, and once she selected Kerry the second time it stayed.

82 Ohio Mahoning Attempted vote for Kerry, responed as Bush/Cheney. Upon verification, went back and changed to Kerry/Edwards. Verified as OK, submitted.

83 Ohio Mahoning Voted Kerry and Bush came up.
Florida broward voter hit kerry button and check mark appeared next to bush. voter contacted poll worker to correct problem but the same thing happened whe she vote the rest of the ballot. she had help and was able to fix ballot before she left, but was concerned.

84 Florida Broward One machine; told by Kerry monitor that when people voting for Kerry push "summarize". Anaother candidate's anme shows up. Poll workers said, "didn't push hard enough." Said tech repairman has been dispatched.

85 Florida Broward A person informed me of a friend who voted. The completed screen (precinct unknown) on the "review ballot" page wrongly stated that the voter had voted for Bush when the voter had selected Kerry. The voter reported this to an election official who responded, "Yes, that machine has been doing that all day."

86 Florida Broward She had to select presidential choice 2x before correct choice was reflected. Got help from poll worker; successfully voted. Voted Bush, Kerry got highlighted. Can't remember which machine, maybe 2nd/3rd from right.

87 Pennsylvania philadelphia Part of 1 of 2 machines wasn't lighting up -- wasn't able to vote for Liberatarian or Constitutional party; election judge said voter complained but just voted for Kerry & left.....

88 Florida Broward Voter touched Kerry on screen, got Bush.{cr}{newline }(secondhand report from observer, no contact info for voter)

89 Florida Broward Tried repeatedly to vote for kerry, got candidate underneath. Was able to vote for Kerry by touching more toward the Bush button.{cr}{newline}machine against back wall, somewhere around the 4th or 5th from the right{cr}{newline}

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Kurovski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. Are their any examples where Bush
votes came up as Kerry?
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New Earth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. in this analysis, 2 Bush votes showed up Kerry
compared to the 86 Kerry votes showing up for Bush....
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 03:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
30. I WAS RIGHT THE FIRST TIME, IT WAS 91 INCIDENTS: 86 FROM KERRY TO BUSH
76 Ohio franklin machine not working for kerry monitors whispering

Missed this:
New Mexico Bernalillo When water hit one button another light came on. Was able to corect. Hit for Kerry and other candidate lit up (Green)


83 Ohio Mahoning Voted Kerry and Bush came up.

Missed this:
Florida broward voter hit kerry button and check mark appeared next to bush. voter contacted poll worker to correct problem but the same thing happened whe she vote the rest of the ballot. she had help and was able to fix ballot before she left, but was concerned.

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jfern Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 04:02 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. 1 in 8*10^22 odds
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 04:04 AM by jfern
That's 1 in 80,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #35
39. That's 1 in 80 million trillion.
Of course, the naysayers will just say Bush got lucky.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #35
51. PROBABILITY AT LEAST N OF 91 SCREENS WOULD FLIP FROM KERRY TO BUSH....
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 10:40 AM by TruthIsAll
I SAID I WOULD NOT DO THIS, BUT I COULD NOT RESIST.

Using Excel's binomial distribution function:
The probability P that AT LEAST N out of 91 touchscreens would
flip the vote from Kerry to Bush: 

P =1- BINOMDIST(N-1,91,0.5,TRUE)
The Odds = 1 / P

N	Prob	      Odds: 1 of
45	5.00E-01	2
50	1.47E-01	7
55	1.77E-02	56
60	7.58E-04	1,319
65	1.01E-05	98,603
70	3.62E-08	27,603,823
75	2.74E-11	36,517,695,932
80	0.00E+00	#DIV/0! <forget it. Excel can't compute it
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
37. 2 out of 91 came up Kerry, 86 came up Bush
tia
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acmavm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. Gee, how could this be possible? According to the media, including
the NYT and WP, the election went pretty well. No probo.

So much for the NTY and their big mea culpa about their mistake in believing everything the bush* administration said in the build-up to the war in Iraq. And their promise to be more 'responsible'. That lasted a whole thirty seconds.
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Niche Donating Member (687 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
3. Truth! This is the most beautiful, simplistic truth!
The path of least resistance! :loveya: :kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
40. kick for conyers
tia
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. Can DU get this out to the press
?
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genius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
5. I am hoping this is all made public.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. GO AHEAD. GET TO WORK. SEND IT OUT AS I HAVE POSTED IT.
Those of you familiar with my posts know that this is a totally UNBIASED sample on my part.

I explained exactly how I did the work. It was really quite straightforward. After the final filter, I checked each incident and totaled the switches for Bush or Kerry or neither. I am quite sure the totals are accurate.

The probability of this happening due to chance is essentially ZERO.

Any person who scoffs at these results will never be convinced of fraud.

The beauty of this is that the numbers speak for themselves. No mathematical exit poll argument is this powerful.

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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
7. I think you're right about under-reporting
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 12:49 AM by Straight Shooter
Let's say you've stood in line for a long time, let's say you're not that committed a voter, and let's say you're pretty sure Kerry is going to win based on all the information up to and including election day. Let's say you've got to go home and take care of the wife, the husband, the kids, your mom and dad, the pet, you name it.

What are the odds (Hey, Mr. Mi-fuckin'-tofsky, what are the odds?) that you're going to report this and go through the hassle?

It's like any petty crime, it won't get reported. And here, we're talking only about what was evident to the voters. What about all those misvotes which slid through without their knowledge?

I guess I should say "slithered" through, considering most of them went to Little Boots.

Great work, TIA. You just never ever ever give up!

:toast:

edit: wee typo
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
8. Okay, TIA, you know the drill: "you're only reporting errors that support
your case because you're using a LIBRUL number that Bush-haters were supposed to call if they wanted to whine about the usual little incoveniences and glitches that we all know go with an election run by ordinary citizens."

Go get 'em.

:thumbsup:
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WhoWantsToBeOccupied Donating Member (413 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:52 AM
Response to Original message
9. Just drink the damn media Kool-Aid! Ignorance is bliss
"Truth"? How quaint. How 20th Century! How Woodward and Bernstein. The Bushies create our own "reality" now.
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 02:39 AM
Response to Reply #9
26. AAAHHHH, and it's so FRUITY!!!!!
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MadScientist Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
11. Glitch = MALFUNCTION
As we distribute this great information, we should remind ourselves and our readers that the correct term for 'glitch' is MALFUNCTION.

Using the word 'Glitch' implies no fault, a freak occurrence. In fact the equipment is defective and poorly designed, and inadequately tested. (Probably has been hacked as well.) There is a reason the machines failed, and there is no such thing as a glitch. (I am a qualified expert to make this assertion.)

From now on, every time you hear someone say "Glitch", immediately correct them "By 'glitch' you mean MALFUNCTION, right?"
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:45 AM
Response to Reply #11
23. Frame the debate. Malfunction.
Excellent point. I'll use that word from now on.

Here's mine for you. It isn't "spin"; it's "damage control."

We'll beat them at their own game.

:thumbsup:
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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Is Arnebeck informed about this?
All the machines "malfunction incidents" that day lead to the obvious conclusion, right?

REVOTE in the most affected zones.
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americanwoman Donating Member (75 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #11
27. That Pesky Glitch
Right ON MadScientist. A glitch sounds like a hiccup, a burp, an anomaly. It couldn't be helped. Be happy, don't worry, move along.

To illustrate MadScientist's point, check out these actual headlines skimmed from a Google search. No wonder nobody cares... It was "just a" glitch!

10/14/2004 FL: Computer Glitch Delays Routine Voter Machine Test
(It's a glitch. And besides it was just routine.)

11/04/2004 IN: Computer glitch still baffles county clerk
(Wow a baffling glitch!)

11/05/2004 OH: Glitch gave Bush extra votes in Ohio

11/05/2004 NC: Election problems due to a software glitch

11/10/2004 AR: Computer glitch blamed for miscount in JP voting
(No no. Don't blame the humans. Blame The Glitch!)

11/12/2004 NM: Benalillo County counting delayed by computer glitch.

11/12/2004 NC: Computer glitch loses votes.
(Glitch loses votes. Dog eats homework.)

11/14/2004 FL: Broward vote-count glitch a cinch for cyber solvers.
(Ha! Not only was it a glitch, but it was a "cinch" to solve.)

11/12/2004 IN: Computer Glitch Changes Election Result
(Clearly we've ceded much too much power to The Glitch.)

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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:59 AM
Response to Original message
12. Amazing, TIA
Just incredible. Thank you!
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reality_bites Donating Member (120 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:59 AM
Response to Original message
13. This is OK as far as it goes, I guess but...
...I think there is some psychology that might play into this.

People who voted Kerry but registered Bush may be more likely to complain since Kerry lost the election.

Those who voted Bush but regesitered Kerry, may have had their disappointment with the voting proceess mitigated somewhat because their choice for president won the election, thereby losing any incentive they might have to report the issue.

I doubt this is indicative of anything - although I am no expert on human nature.
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #13
21. Yes, You are Correct
Nevertheless, the numbers are very striking. Because many of the reports could be examples of the same error, it's impossible to place a number on it.

84 out of 89 should get people's attention. Those are the facts. Let the media characterize it.
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #13
22. These are Election Day reports
No cognitive dissonance, second-guessing, or whining involved. So, unless Junior's voters knew in advance that he would be re-selected, you're going to have to try harder to convince anyone of that extremely unlikely scenario. This isn't about feelings. This is about theft. Period.

I tell you what, if I had voted for Kerry and my confirmation screen showed that my vote had been cast for Junior, instead, I would STILL be standing in front of (if not on top of!) that fool machine, screaming my head off about machine malfunctions! No way in HELL would I leave that polling place without that being corrected! What's that? Can't fix it? Then shut down the machine. Completely. It's broken. Don't discuss. Disconnect.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 03:59 AM
Response to Reply #13
34. Baloney.
Did the Bush voters on 11/2/04 know that Bush would win before the votes were counted? I think not. I'm convinced that any Bush voter would be just as ready to defend their vote as a Kerry supporter.

Look at the incidences.....they problems are not random. If anything, I suspect that many people not familiar with the technology (who don't own computers) were more intimidated and less likely to notice and/or report these problems. For every complaint, I'll bet there were plenty more that weren't challenged.

Computers don't create malfunctions like this. It's not logical. There were algorithms playing with the voter's choice.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #13
52. So are you saying the sample wasn't *random*? /sarcasm off n/t
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IAMREALITY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #13
56. That Theory Is Just Utterly Ridiculous.
It is right up there with the 'the exit polls were wrong because repubs like to keep their vote preference private' theory.

:eyes:
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
14. Sent to Conyers via. Judiciary Committee site. n/t
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
15. My quick dirty estimate shows
the probability of that happening to be less than 1 in 2 raised to the 70th power. Very very very small number. I would gamble anything if I had that much chance of losing the bet!
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Oh yeah
It must be the God effect!
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:11 AM
Response to Original message
16. The database was "self selected"
That's what they will say about your analysis. "Democrats just Complain a lot."

I just kicked up my full summary to help out with this, but the original, older post in voting issues has more discussion about what needs to be done with the EIRS data before we can use it to make claims. Mainly, we need to find a complaint that happens a lot on both sides, like campaigning too close to the polls, and use that to weight the database as to how much "self selection" bias it has.

The original post is here:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

And the repost is here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. SKIDS, I APPRECIATE YOUR COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS....
BUT IF IT WALKS LIKE A DUCK...

LET'S NOT OVER ANALYZE THIS. THE NUMBERS ARE TOO SKEWED IN FAVOR OF BUSH FOR ANY REPUKE TO ARGUE ANYTHING OTHER THAN DIVINE INTERVENTION. AND WE WILL NEVER CONVINCE THEM OTHERWISE.

KISS
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 02:48 AM
Response to Reply #20
28. Well, it's not the Repugs I'm worried about.
It's the college grads who should be on our side.

Your peice is probably strong enough to run with. Odds are high that the data will back it up in the long run. But we also need material for Joe skeptic too. That's all I'm saying.

Maybe we should adopt a two-stage release process. Release something dramatic that may have a few holes, but at the same time be in the process of preparing a counterattack to the criticism it gets.

Just what I'd say is try to avoid releasing soft research in forums like Kos, where it gets picked to peices, and concentrate those peices into more low-brow outlets.

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emlev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 03:46 AM
Response to Reply #16
33. When Bush voters got Kerry by accident, they didn't call EPC
I wish I could remember where I heard that the problem did occur in the reverse as well, but was reported to the Repubs, not to the non-partisan Election Protection Coalition that ran the EIRS.

I volunteered for the EPC, including on the EIRS, and I'd love to think it's a representative sample, but I don't.

Of course, the issue of votes being cast incorrectly is hugely important anyway.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #33
36. So Bush voters don't mind voting for Kerry and they tell exit pollster's
that they voted Kerry, but really voted Bush.

Those Bush voters are a pretty strange bunch, eh?
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vpigrad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:20 AM
Response to Original message
18. As someone who uses touchscreens each day...
I wouldn't say that selecting the wrong voter necessarily shows a bias, because those things are crap. Even the $1,100 ELO ones we use are crap, and the ones used in the voting machines aren't nearly that nice. Sometimes getting your finger close to the screen will set it off and sometimes you'll need to press down hard and other times other fingers will be picked-up rather than the ones you're pressing down with. For example, on the machines I used Kerry was listed above Bush. I pressed my first finger on Kerry but my other fingers were not that far from the Bush button. Stick your first finger-out, press it against your desk, and you'll see what I'm talking about. At work, we've rearranged all of our touchscreen interfaces so that the buttons are no closer than 4" vertically even though some of the buttons are only 1/2" wide.

The entire concept of using that touchscreen crap is the problem. Put real buttons on the machines and you'll have less problems. There's a reason touchscreens have been around for over 20 years and are still only used in esoteric situations.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. It wasn't just a screen glitch. Take a look at #055744
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 01:26 AM by skids
055744 Washington Snohomish Nov. 2, 2004 2004-11-11 15:48:38 PST Machine problem Reported by

Short version: machine registers incorrect candidate when vote placed

Full report follows:
I am a registered voter in Snohomish county (Everett 49) and had a very strange voting experience this morning that concerns me. The description follows that I sent as a warning to my wife who has not voted yet today:
Just letting you know I had some really curious occurrences when I went to vote. When voting for president they have the presidential candidates on the far left side of the screen and the senate candidates on the right side of the screen (why they don't have separate screens for each vote is beyond me and is a questionable practice in and of itself). Anyway, when I voted for president on the left side of the screen, it did not record the vote for president, but recorded a vote for Patty Murray for senator on the far right side of the screen. I pointed the discrepancy out to the voting people and asked why when I push in a small circle on the left side of the screen that a vote gets recorded on the far right side of the screen and why that vote was for a democrat, their only answer was "well you must have touched that side of the screen with your coat". This was BS as I was using the very pointed voting wand to press the screen in a very deliberate manner. This happened to me TWO MORE TIMES while I was voting for other candidates and being extremely careful not to touch any other portion of the screen with my coat or anything else....each time the vote I intended was not recorded, instead a vote for a democratic candidate was recorded on another part of the screen....it was consistently recording votes for a democratic candidate that I had never selected and for a race that I was not currently voting on. In order to correct these discrepancies you have to physically select the check mark for the candidate YOU DID NOT INTEND to vote for, which then restores that selection screen and all of the candidates are again shown and you can again attempt to vote for the candidate you intended.

Supposedly, at the end after you review your entire ballot and then select to cast your ballot, none of the other selections you were forced to make get sent as your vote ....only the information shown on your ballot review gets cast as your vote, but I am dubious that this is indeed true. This happened to two other people on completely different voting machines while I was there voting. So it was not a unique problem with my screen. I don't think this is by accident....This will confuse people by forcing you to reject a vote for a democrat in a race you are not currently voting on before you can choose your own candidate. Also, some people are easily confused or embarrassed and won't know that they can cancel the unintended vote by actually selecting the check mark for the unintended vote to restore the screen and they won't ask for help to correct it and will likely cast an incorrect ballot to save face. I am very concerned about this obvious pattern....why wasn't a Republican or Independent candidate ever the one voted for erroneously, it was always a Democrat. Something stinks here and I am going to report it.

(edit: apparently something got screwed up here and it was "working" backwards)
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. See post #11. Not a glitch. MALFUNCTION.
:hi:
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 03:17 AM
Response to Reply #24
32. Sorry. I'm bad at setting habits. It'll come in time :-) n/t
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sce56 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 02:49 AM
Response to Original message
29. I know it is not funny but I did get a lot of laughs out of this b4 2 Nov
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 03:07 AM
Response to Original message
31. I'd like to see as many of these as possible tied to "recalibrations"
and actual shutdowns. I posted some examples of this a few days ago--and there may be more information in the articles at votersunite.org and at the Election Protection site as well.

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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
38. Of course
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 08:28 AM by malatesta1137
even if this gets media attention, it won't mean ANYTHING unless Kerry takes a stand. As long as he remains silent, this won't go anywhere.
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Hamoth Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:38 AM
Response to Original message
41. Does anyone else log these things?
Does anyone in a state elections official capacity log machien problems? For the states not to log errors would be to condone errors. I have a hard time believeing that there isn't some official document that has all observed problems logged. That would get us out of the "self selection" hole.

This study won't mean much until we can get the oficial data on small and especially the LARGE malfunctions that have occurred in each state.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
42. Kick for sure.
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bear425 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
43. Thank you TIA! I'm so kicking this thread.
P.S. Is there a rogue devil smiley near the bottom?
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
44. When Bev Harris pulled those receipts from the garbage in Volusia...
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 09:49 AM by Junkdrawer
her first warning was: "Now, they are going to say this relates to a 'machine glitch' they had there..."

In other words, 'machine glitch' is the SOP, knee jerk excuse given when they are caught red handed.
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
45. DAMN!!!
Un*****believable.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #45
57. I know how you must feel: Its unCheneybelievable...
that the Dems just let it them get away with it..
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MominTN Donating Member (82 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
46. Is there a driver for touch screens?
I'm not a programmer but I'm curious as to how so many machines could have the same problem. Do the touch screens have a driver similar to the ones we have on pcs that could be downloaded as an update or as a fix? Few people can see these drivers' source code or program them.
The program on the machine might have been not properly installed or not in sync with the new driver and then redisplayed the vote shift for the person to actually see. Does anyone know if they have a driver for the touch screen and how it works?
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MominTN Donating Member (82 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #46
48. Driver?
Does anyone know how they work?
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Vidar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
47. Thanks for keeping us informed,TruthIsAll.
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bmoney07 Donating Member (304 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 10:10 AM
Response to Original message
49. And these are the ones that we know about
Jeeze, with those kinds of adds how could you loose?


And the media says: Nope nothing here, just move along, they all should be shot. Plain and simple
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Senator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
50. #22 and #55 - Queens, NY
Is Peter "we'll take care of the counting" King country.

Star of Alex Pelosi's film, Political Tourist.


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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
53. Kick Kick Kick EOM
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #53
58. BBV Blues: I voted blue, it shifted red; better to use a ballot instead
tia
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itzamirakul Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
54. Passing it on
to as many people and orgs as I can.
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Kellis Donating Member (663 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #54
72. Ditto
THANKS for all your work TruthIsAll.

:kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
55. I SEE THAT AP TOOK A POLL TO SEE HOW MANY HAD PROBLEMS.
That really makes a lot of sense. NOT.
Of course, no one who voted Repub had a problem on a touchscreen.

But what if 5% of Dem votes were changed from Kerry to Bush?
That would mean that 1 out of 40 polled or 2.5 % would say that there was a problem. That may not seem like much, but...

THAT'S ENOUGH TO STEAL AN ELECTION.

SO MUCH FOR THE AP POLL.
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TrustingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #55
62. jeebers but I'm glad you're on the right side. :) n/t
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TrustingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #62
63. THERE IS NO BEAR COUNTY IN TEXAS. THERE IS ONLY BEXAR COUNTY!
is what I'm getting from some freeper asshole still in denial.

Does this mean anything I should know about to retal him with?
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TrustingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 08:00 PM
Response to Reply #63
65. I think I answered myself..
this wasn't a cut and paste off the site, this is a summarization that you yourself typed out in haste and excitement, right?

would clearly explain that the X was missed and made it Bear.

heheheh. gotta love those jokers, huh?
They have shit dumped on their heads by their masters but focus on the smallest detail....
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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
59. KICK for the early evening crowd.
:kick:

So glad to see this compiled. . .

:kick:
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BlackVelvet04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
60. Would you mind
if I posted this to another board (giving you credit of course)?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. Ok, but note the correction(post # 30): 91 cases, 86 flipped to Bush.
Edited on Wed Dec-08-04 06:55 PM by TruthIsAll
You might also want to include my probability calculation for this. See post # 51.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
64. Kickaroo.
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MaroonVette Donating Member (43 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
66. What prevents one or more people from flooding voteprotect.org
with bogus and repetitive false problem reports? What are the odds someone would bias the reporting of problems with their inputs?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:06 AM
Response to Original message
67. Why didn't someone mention this at the hearing yesterday.
The odds against this happening by chance are in the billions of trillions.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
68. THE REALITY: BYTES WERE SWITCHED... n/t
.
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jwmealy Donating Member (35 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
69. Here's another result that is a smoking gun. . .
Would you be willing to evaluate the probability of the equation below being true in all described cases? I regard this as the statistical equivalent of a fingerprint of one particular election tampering scheme. It's unique and cannot be reproduced by chance.

My studies of the pattern of "red shift" between the latest exit polls on Nov. 2 and the final tabulated results nationally led to the following spectacularly daring prediction:

For every state in which the disrepancy between last-thing Nov. 2 consortium exit polls and tabulated results for red shift or negative blue shift is greater than the margin of error, the following equation will be true:

Red Shift + Final Spread + 1 > Greatest Recorded Red Shift for the 51 States.

This prediction proved true in all 18 cases without exception.

This result could never attain unless there were an engineered result to the election in most or all the states whose red shifts exceed the margin of error. Some piece of software was keeping tabs on the accumulating results for each of these states as they came into the central tabulation database, and incrementally altered percentages so as to keep Bush ahead by 1% until one of two conditions applied: (1) Bush was projected to win by 1% or more, or (2) the amount of intervention required to give Bush the win by 1% exceeded a certain parameter, hypothetically 5.6%, which is the amount of red shift of Vermont, the highest recorded for the 50 states plus WDC.

In a word, this is proof. As a quick check, I have run 3000 randomized election outcomes for those 18 states within the general spread and red shift parameters observed for the group, and not one of them has come up with a result of zero exceptions to the prediction.

State,Pct. reporting,EC Votes,bush ep %,kerry ep %,Sample Size,bush tab %,kerry tab %,Spread,bush abs tab,kerry abs tab,Simon's Bush red shift,NYT Bush red shift,Kerry Neg Blue Shift,Combined,Bush abs if Exit Poll is Correct,Kerry abs if Exit Poll is Correct,EC Votes,BUSH MOE,KERRY MOE,Bush RS > MOE,Kerry BS > MOE,Red or Blue Shift >MOE,Formula F: rs+sp+1>5.6,Formula F True?, Abs Tab Vote Winner,Exit Poll Winner,Winner Changes?
VERMONT,100,3,33.3,63.7,685,38.9, 59.1 , 20.2 ," 120,710 "," 183,621 ", 5.2 ,5.6,4.6, 10.20 ," 101,342 "," 193,859 ", 3 ,0.0360,0.0367,yes,yes,yes, 26.8 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
DELAWARE,100,3,40.7,57.3,770,45.8, 53.3 , 7.5 ," 171,531 "," 199,887 ", 4.8 ,5.1,4, 9.10 ," 151,167 "," 212,823 ", 3 ,0.0354,0.0357,yes,yes,yes, 13.6 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
NEW HAMPSHIRE,100,4,44.1,54.9,1849,49, 50.3 , 1.3 ," 330,848 "," 340,019 ", 4.9 ,4.9,4.6, 9.50 ," 295,852 "," 368,306 ", 4 ,0.0231,0.0231,yes,yes,yes, 7.2 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
SOUTH CAROLINA,100,8,53.4,45.1,1735,58, 40.8 , 17.2 ," 924,170 "," 650,350 ", 4.4 ,4.6,4.3, 8.90 ," 840,794 "," 710,109 ", 8 ,0.0240,0.0239,yes,yes,yes, 22.8 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
ALABAMA,100,9,58.1,40.5,730,62.5, 36.8 , 25.7 ," 1,174,383 "," 692,303 ", 4.2 ,4.4,3.7, 8.10 ," 1,084,545 "," 756,008 ", 9 ,0.0365,0.0363,yes,yes,yes, 31.1 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MASSACHUSETTS,100,12,32.9,65.2,889,37, 62.1 , 25.1 ," 1,067,163 "," 1,793,916 ", 3.7 ,4.1,3.1, 7.20 ," 941,295 "," 1,865,424 ", 12 ,0.0315,0.0320,yes,,yes, 30.2 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
NEBRASKA,100,5,62.5,36,785,66.6, 32.1 , 34.5 ," 485,766 "," 234,236 ", 4.3 ,4.1,3.9, 8.00 ," 450,001 "," 259,201 ", 5 ,0.0346,0.0343,yes,yes,yes, 39.6 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
ALASKA,100,3,57.8,38.8,910,61.8, 35.0 , 26.8 ," 151,876 "," 86,064 ", 4.0 ,4,3.8, 7.80 ," 137,529 "," 92,321 ", 3 ,0.0327,0.0323,yes,yes,yes, 31.8 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
RHODE ISLAND,100,4,34.9,62.7,809,38.9, 59.5 , 20.6 ," 161,654 "," 247,407 ", 3.4 ,4,3.2, 7.20 ," 142,762 "," 256,481 ", 4 ,0.0335,0.0340,yes,,yes, 25.6 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
WYOMING,100,3,65.5,30.9,684,69, 29.1 , 39.9 ," 167,129 "," 70,620 ", 2.7 ,3.5,1.8, 5.30 ," 155,726 "," 73,464 ", 3 ,0.0364,0.0353,,,, 44.4 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
PENNSYLVANIA,99.9,21,45.4,54.1,1930,48.6, 50.8 , 2.2 ," 2,756,361 "," 2,883,833 ", 3.4 ,3.2,3.3, 6.50 ," 2,560,648 "," 3,051,345 ", 21 ,0.0227,0.0227,yes,yes,yes, 6.4 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
CONNECTICUT,100,7,40.9,57.7,872,44, 54.3 , 10.3 ," 686,923 "," 847,666 ", 3.4 ,3.1,3.4, 6.50 ," 627,647 "," 885,458 ", 7 ,0.0333,0.0335,,yes,yes, 14.4 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
MINNESOTA,100,10,44.5,53.5,2178,47.6, 51.1 , 3.5 ," 1,345,168 "," 1,443,564 ", 3.0 ,3.1,2.4, 5.50 ," 1,240,986 "," 1,491,972 ", 10 ,0.0213,0.0214,yes,yes,yes, 7.6 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
MISSISSIPPI,100,6,56.5,43,798,59.6, 39.6 , 20.0 ," 671,084 "," 445,608 ", 3.3 ,3.1,3.4, 6.50 ," 630,931 "," 480,178 ", 6 ,0.0351,0.0351,,,, 24.1 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
OHIO,100,20,47.9,52.1,1963,51, 48.5 , 2.5 ," 2,796,147 "," 2,659,664 ", 3.1 ,3.1,3.6, 6.70 ," 2,613,333 "," 2,842,478 ", 20 ,0.0226,0.0226,yes,yes,yes, 6.6 ,TRUE,Bush,Kerry,Yes
UTAH,99.7,5,68.1,29.1,798,71.1, 26.4 , 44.7 ," 612,623 "," 227,286 ", 2.5 ,3,2.7, 5.70 ," 571,978 "," 244,414 ", 5 ,0.0330,0.0322,,,, 48.7 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
IDAHO,100,4,65.7,32.9,559,68.5, 30.4 , 38.1 ," 408,254 "," 180,920 ", 2.6 ,2.8,2.5, 5.30 ," 387,087 "," 193,838 ", 4 ,0.0402,0.0397,,,, 41.9 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
NEVADA,100,5,47.9,49.2,2116,50.5, 47.9 , 2.6 ," 414,939 "," 393,372 ", 2.2 ,2.6,1.3, 3.90 ," 387,181 "," 397,689 ", 5 ,0.0217,0.0217,yes,,yes, 6.2 ,TRUE,Bush,Kerry,Yes
NEW MEXICO,99.9,5,47.5,50.1,1951,50, 48.9 , 1.1 ," 372,513 "," 364,240 ", 1.9 ,2.5,1.2, 3.70 ," 349,958 "," 369,113 ", 5 ,0.0226,0.0226,yes,,, 4.6 ,FALSE,Bush,Kerry,Yes
ILLINOIS,100,21,42.4,56.6,1392,44.8, 54.6 , 9.8 ," 2,330,406 "," 2,840,113 ", 1.6 ,2.4,2, 4.40 ," 2,192,300 "," 2,926,514 ", 21 ,0.0265,0.0266,,,, 13.2 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
FLORIDA,100,27,49.8,49.7,2846,52.1, 47.1 , 5.0 ," 3,955,656 "," 3,574,509 ", 2.5 ,2.3,2.6, 4.90 ," 3,750,022 "," 3,742,492 ", 27 ,0.0187,0.0187,yes,yes,yes, 8.3 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
ARIZONA,100,10,52.8,46.7,1859,54.9, 44.5 , 10.4 ," 908,211 "," 735,327 ", 2.5 ,2.1,2.2, 4.30 ," 867,788 "," 767,532 ", 10 ,0.0232,0.0231,,,, 13.5 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
COLORADO,100,9,49.9,48.1,2515,52, 46.8 , 5.2 ," 1,068,233 "," 960,666 ", 2.6 ,2.1,1.3, 3.40 ," 1,012,421 "," 975,900 ", 9 ,0.0199,0.0199,yes,,yes, 8.3 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
WEST VIRGINIA,100,5,54,44.5,1722,56.1, 43.2 , 12.9 ," 418,151 "," 321,641 ", 1.8 ,2.1,1.3, 3.40 ," 399,488 "," 329,207 ", 5 ,0.0240,0.0240,,,, 16.0 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
LOUISIANA,100,9,54.7,43.9,1669,56.8, 42.2 , 14.6 ," 1,101,296 "," 818,207 ", 2.1 ,2.1,1.7, 3.80 ," 1,049,968 "," 842,662 ", 9 ,0.0244,0.0243,,,, 17.7 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
INDIANA,99.8,11,58.4,40.6,926,60.1, 39.2 , 20.9 ," 1,474,475 "," 960,899 ", 1.6 ,1.7,1.4, 3.10 ," 1,422,258 "," 988,762 ", 11 ,0.0324,0.0323,,,, 23.6 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
IOWA,100,7,48.4,49.7,2502,50.1, 49.2 , 0.9 ," 746,600 "," 733,102 ", 2.0 ,1.7,0.5, 2.20 ," 716,176 "," 735,412 ", 7 ,0.0200,0.0200,,,, 3.6 ,FALSE,Bush,Kerry,Yes
WASHINGTON,100,11,44,54.1,2123,45.6, 52.9 , 7.3 ," 1,192,481 "," 1,384,023 ", 1.6 ,1.6,1.2, 2.80 ," 1,133,662 "," 1,393,889 ", 11 ,0.0215,0.0216,,,, 9.9 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
GEORGIA,100,15,56.6,42.9,1536,58.1, 41.4 , 16.7 ," 1,889,832 "," 1,345,198 ", 2.2 ,1.5,1.5, 3.00 ," 1,831,027 "," 1,387,828 ", 15 ,0.0253,0.0253,,,, 19.2 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
ARKANSAS,100,6,52.9,46.1,1402,54.3, 44.5 , 9.8 ," 566,678 "," 464,157 ", 1.1 ,1.4,1.6, 3.00 ," 545,312 "," 475,215 ", 6 ,0.0266,0.0266,,,, 12.2 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MISSOURI,100,11,52,47,2158,53.4, 46.1 , 7.3 ," 1,452,715 "," 1,253,879 ", 1.5 ,1.4,0.9, 2.30 ," 1,407,429 "," 1,272,099 ", 11 ,0.0215,0.0215,,,, 9.7 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MICHIGAN,100,17,46.5,51.5,2452,47.8, 51.2 , 3.4 ," 2,306,331 "," 2,472,007 ", 1.0 ,1.3,0.3, 1.60 ," 2,221,927 "," 2,460,844 ", 17 ,0.0202,0.0202,,,, 5.7 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA,100,3,8.2,89.8,795,9.3, 89.5 , 80.2 ," 19,007 "," 183,876 ", 0.3 ,1.1,0.3, 1.40 ," 16,636 "," 182,189 ", 3 ,0.0215,0.0215,,,, 82.3 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
KENTUCKY,100,8,58.4,40.2,1034,59.5, 39.7 , 19.8 ," 1,068,741 "," 712,431 ", 0.9 ,1.1,0.5, 1.60 ," 1,040,204 "," 716,031 ", 8 ,0.0305,0.0305,,,, 21.9 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MONTANA,100,3,58,37.5,640,59.1, 38.6 , 20.5 ," 265,473 "," 173,363 ", (0.3),1.1,-1.1, - ," 254,525 "," 164,564 ", 3 ,0.0383,0.0383,,,, 22.6 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MARYLAND,100,10,42.3,56.2,1000,43.3, 55.7 , 12.4 ," 951,892 "," 1,223,813 ", 0.5 ,1,0.5, 1.50 ," 920,323 "," 1,222,746 ", 10 ,0.0314,0.0314,,,, 14.4 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
WISCONSIN,100,10,48.8,49.2,2223,49.4, 49.8 , 0.4 ," 1,477,122 "," 1,488,935 ", (0.3),0.6,-0.6, 0.00 ," 1,447,436 "," 1,459,300 ", 10 ,0.0212,0.0212,,,, 2.0 ,FALSE,Kerry,Kerry,
OKLAHOMA,100,7,65,34.6,1539,65.6, 34.4 , 31.2 ," 959,655 "," 504,077 ", 0.8 ,0.6,0.2, 0.80 ," 951,426 "," 506,451 ", 7 ,0.0243,0.0243,,,, 32.8 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
MAINE,100,4,44.3,53.8,1968,44.6, 53.4 , 8.8 ," 330,399 "," 395,416 ", 0.8 ,0.3,0.4, 0.70 ," 321,536 "," 390,488 ", 4 ,0.0225,0.0225,,,, 10.1 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
NEW JERSEY,99.4,15,46.2,52.8,1520,46.5, 52.7 , 6.2 ," 1,587,494 "," 1,799,320 ", (0.2),0.3,0.1, 0.40 ," 1,564,708 "," 1,788,238 ", 15 ,0.0256,0.0256,,,, 7.5 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
VIRGINIA,100,13,54.1,45.4,1431,54, 45.3 , 8.7 ," 1,667,198 "," 1,400,254 ", (0.4),-0.1,0.1, - ," 1,659,492 "," 1,392,623 ", 13 ,0.0263,0.0263,,,, 9.6 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
OREGON,100,7,47.9,50.3,1064,47.6, 51.5 , 3.9 ," 823,210 "," 890,698 ", (1.3),-0.3,-1.2, (1.50)," 820,962 "," 862,096 ", 7 ,0.0307,0.0307,,,, 4.6 ,FALSE,Kerry,Kerry,
NEW YORK,99.8,31,40.9,58.2,1452,40.5, 57.8 , 17.3 ," 2,794,470 "," 3,987,214 ", (0.4),-0.4,0.4, 0.00 ," 2,773,709 "," 3,946,940 ", 31 ,0.026,0.026,,,, 17.9 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
NORTH CAROLINA,100,15,56.5,42.7,2167,56.1, 43.6 , 12.5 ," 1,910,936 "," 1,484,158 ", (0.4),-0.4,-0.9, (1.30)," 1,918,228 "," 1,449,705 ", 15 ,0.021,0.021,,,, 13.1 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
TEXAS,100,34,62.2,36.3,1671,61.2, 38.3 , 22.9 ," 4,518,491 "," 2,825,723 ", (2.0),-1,-2, (3.00)," 4,568,101 "," 2,665,950 ", 34 ,0.024,0.024,,,, 22.9 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
SOUTH DAKOTA,100,3,61,36.5,1495,59.9, 38.4 , 21.5 ," 232,545 "," 149,225 ", (1.8),-1.1,-1.9, (3.00)," 232,880 "," 139,346 ", 3 ,0.025,0.025,,,, 21.4 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
TENNESSEE,100,11,58,40.6,1774,56.8, 42.5 , 14.3 ," 1,381,937 "," 1,033,176 ", (1.7),-1.2,-1.9, (3.10)," 1,400,766 "," 980,536 ", 11 ,0.023,0.023,,,, 14.1 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
HAWAII,100,4,46.7,53.3,499,45.3, 54.0 , 8.7 ," 194,109 "," 231,318 ", (1.2),-1.4,-0.7, (2.10)," 198,674 "," 226,753 ", 4 ,0.045,0.045,,,, 8.3 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
NORTH DAKOTA,100,3,64.4,32.6,649,62.9, 35.5 , 27.4 ," 195,998 "," 110,662 ", (2.4),-1.5,-2.9, (4.40)," 197,489 "," 99,971 ", 3 ,0.037,0.037,,,, 26.9 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
KANSAS,100,6,64.5,34.1,654,62.2, 36.5 , 25.7 ," 717,507 "," 420,846 ", (2.7),-2.3,-2.4, (4.70)," 734,238 "," 388,178 ", 6 ,0.037,0.037,,,, 24.4 ,TRUE,Bush,Bush,
CALIFORNIA,100,55,46.6,54.6,1919,44.3, 54.6 , 10.3 ," 4,403,495 "," 5,427,055 ", (1.5),-2.3,0, (2.29)," 4,581,036 "," 5,367,480 ", 55 ,0.023,0.023,yes,,yes, 9.0 ,TRUE,Kerry,Kerry,
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jwmealy Donating Member (35 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #69
70. The formula remains true even if the constant is reduced to 0.5
The formula, which I'm calling Formula F, remains true for the 18 greater-than-moe states, even when it is altered to read not

Red Shift + Final Spread + 1 > Greatest Recorded Red Shift for the 51 States

but

Red Shift + Final Spread + 0.5 > Greatest Recorded Red Shift for the 51 States

That makes the chances of a random result of 18 true 0 false all the more infinitesimal.




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KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #69
76. Really good work -why don't you pass it to Conyers?
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thedevilinthedetails Donating Member (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
71. let's look at this anaylsis again
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 12:45 PM by thedevilinthedetails
Ok, first off I am NOT saying that vote fraud did NOT happen. I do think that fishy things happened, without a doubt.

I too was intrigued by these stories of people voting for Kerry but the touch screens comeing up Bush...I remember on election day CNN had a piece on their website about one woman and her husband in Floridia voting and this happening.

BUT, to try to calculate odds of this happening and extrapolating from these examples is wrong.

If you are going to take something and show it as "proof" of fraud, these anecdotal stories, while intriguing, don't proove anything on their own:

1) these are self reporting incidents. They are in no way statsitically significant, they are ONLY anecdotal in nature

2) to infer that only 2 or 3 were in Kerry's favor and not Bush prooves fraud is incorrect because of #1 above

If Kerry had won, would we find people around the country reporting that they voted for Bush only for it to be counted for Kerry? In other words, since Kerry lost is that why these people reported? I have not doubt that SINCE Kerry lost according to the MSM, people who had incidents happened to them that seemed strange when they were voting for the losing candidate would be much more likely to report it.

And finally, in some of the instances mentioned in this list, the voter was able to choose their candidate in the end. So while the entire issue of hidden buttons on touch screens and stories about these strange happenings are VERY troubling, I don't think on it's own it really proves anything, other than anecdotally.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #71
74. Who said anything about proof? But... did you compute
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 07:31 PM by TruthIsAll
the probability of these "random" occurrences.

A Duer has calculated it as 1 out of 80 million trillion.

When I did the calculation in Excel (see above) the binomial distribution probability would NOT compute when I got to 75 out of 89 screens coming up Bush.

No, that's not absolute proof.

But it's more than enough circumstantial evidence to convict.
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KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #71
75. I am certain there were many voters who did not catch the "glitch"
and so walked away thinking they were voting for Kerry when they handed it to Bush. So those folks clearly could not report it.
There are laws of probabilities in the world. Truly amazing that so many of these "flips" went for Bush.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
73. Kicking, with a tip o' the hat to jwmealy's contribution. n/t
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Roger_Otip Donating Member (187 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
77. posted on demopedia page "Glitches"
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HEAVYHEART Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
78. Kick!
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Digit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
79. kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #79
80. 86 of 88 came up Bush, 2 came up Kerry.
Even the best NBA foul shooter can't sink 86 of 88.
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Hamoth Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #80
81. This is meaningless
without an official unbiassed source of machine error reports. Our data sample is compromized here and impossible to defend. I also htink that we will find something good here, but this wont make hearings or news without an iron-clad datascource such as recports harbored by the Ohio SOS.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #81
82. kick for kerry
.
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insane_cratic_gal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
83. It makes sense to me
if your going to commit fraud, best cailbrate the machines to record votes for Kerry. Why?

statically speaking the polls before the election (cnn, abc, MSM ect)were spot on. Bush leading with 51 percent to Kerry. 49. To Boost Bush's numbers up too much would of raised eyebrows.

Neagtive number to bring Kerry's votes into line in a feasible believeable manner.

I believe the swing vote went for Kerry not bush, but they negated that with the fraud.
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