Their overconfidence is their weakness

[gemini_liberal]

"Your faith in your friends is yours" - there, I'll just get that out of the way, in case any Star Wars geeks were thinking it lol

I am confident Abbott will be beaten soundly, recent poll slumps for Rudd have convinced the Abbott cult that they've already won the election. I am involved in many political groups (I even lurk right wing sites) and they seem to have gone from confidence to overconfidence. David Cameron becoming the PM of the UK will exacerbate this, as they mostly think (incorrectly) what happens in British politics will happen here.

By no means am I saying it's in the bag. And by saying this, I run the risk of introducing a sense of complacency, but I am now 99.9% sure that Rudd will win with an increased house majority (dunno how he'll fare in the Senate, either way, lost ALP senate seats will go Green, not conservative. Which I think is an ideal scenario for all.) The conservatives hubris will be their undoing.

So let's see some optimism. We've got an extremist, fanatic sociopath to beat!

[Esra Star]

1. I think the biggest sign that Labor will win the election is......

the fact that Mal has decided to un-retire from politics. He must have information that the party
is expecting Tony to go down in flames.
I think the election will be a double dis in August-September. I think Antony Greens logic for this is compelling.
The interest for me is the poker game that Kevin plays. He seems to be folding with good hands.
He must be waiting for the pot to get interesting.
Cheers

[gemini_liberal]

2. That's what I got from Malcolm's reversal

Internal polling must show that Australians are willing to return the Liberals but not someone like Tone. That is why Malcolm is sticking around.

While I'd probably stick to Labor regardless, a Turnbull premiership wouldn't be the end of the world.

On the other hand, Abbott must be stopped at all costs!

[Esra Star]

3. I just want the Government to be capable and progressive.

Its been a bit easy for the Libs as they never do anything. At least Labor do stuff.
The way I see it John Howard had only three achievements (positive) during his reign.
1. He got gun control advanced. We are now relatively gun free.
2. He got the GST up and running.
3. The railway to Darwin was finally built.

Other than that, nada.

Cheers

[Matilda]

4. I think Labor will win,

but not by much.

Prior to Rudd's dumping of an ETS scheme, not just for now, but for the life of the next parliament, he was set to
win by the roughly the same majority he had in 2007. He's now losing the primary votes in the Lower House, but
they're not flowing diretly to the Coalition, they're going to minor parties and the Greens. Some will come back to
Labor, and some will go to the Coalition, and his majority in the Lower House, on current polling, will be cut by
a couple of seats. I can't see why this would change; the Budget is a pragmatic one for the government, but it's
not promising anything directly to the voters.

It's the Senate, as always, that's going to be interesting. There is a lot of anger over the ditching of the ETS,
and that will see an increase in the votes going to the Greens. A half-Senate election would probably bring the
Greens six seats, but the Coalition would still have the numbers to defeat the government until July 2011. A double
dissolution would bring more seats to the Greens - Antony Green thinks they could get eight seats, and he's so often
right on the money - but the Coalition's stranglehold would be broken immediately. But Rudd refused even to discuss
the question of a double dissolution this morning, and who knows what's in his mind? Whatever Rudd decides, Labor
is not going to have full control of the Senate.

We Munchkins can only wait and see.

[Matilda]

5. The Opposition is, of course, threatening to block the Resources Tax in the Senate.

But according to Ben Eltham (new matilda), the Government is going to tie the bill into supply. Since 1975, there
has been a tacit agreement from both parties that blocking supply is not on, so this will be an interesting
situation. Abbott is just mad enough to try it, I suspect.

I don't think anybody sane would want to go down that road again.

[gemini_liberal]

6. They haven't a clue what they are doing!

They are making it up as they are going along! Last week, Abbott claimed he was going to cut huge spending from the budget. When pressed, he said Hockey will announce the details at the press gallery today. Today, Hockey embarrassed himself and his party by pissing off the entire media gallery by avoiding actually giving any policy details and running them around and passing the buck to Andrew Robb!

Then they announce they will end all federal government green initiatives, making that previously blurry line between the ALP and the Coalition on environmental policy sharp as a knife again.

Combine this with Abbott admitting some of his promises and policy announcements may be lies, I can safely say this lot will lose!

Not only that, but Hockey's political career is definitely on life support now!

I'm starting to have deja vuof 2004 here!

What a week! The winner: Kerry O'Brien!

[Matilda]

7. It's so ironic that Rudd took a nosedive by shooting himself in both feet,

but he may owe his resurrection to the fact that Abbott has done the same.

Abbott's banked everything on being destructive - it might work to a degree when it comes to defeating Government
legislation, but as he's been told from day one, he needs policies, and those he doesn't have. He, Hockey and
Robb must be the most incompetent bunch of senior ministers in many decades.

The next polls are going to be very interesting, because however loony Abbott may be, you can't underestimate the
stupidity of some people out there. I'd love to believe that the Australian people will be awake to Abbott's
unfitness to lead, but I won't bet on it at this stage. Even given Rudd's incredible blunder on the ETS, I never
expected Abbott to rise as quickly as he did. I just hope he falls as fast.