The Independent asks: Could Labour lose?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

Could Labour lose?

The campaign was so long expected and a third Blair victory so often predicted that many assume the result is already settled. But a Tory revival, job fears in the Midlands and the continued unpopularity of the PM are keeping the contest wide open. It's all to play for. And all to lose, as 'IoS' Political Editor Andy McSmith reports

It has been a bit of a phoney war up until now, but from today the guns will really begin pounding the enemy trenches. Michael Howard will be in Telford, accusing Tony Blair of "pussyfooting" around the issue of immigration. Gordon Brown will be in Shipley, attacking the alleged incoherence of Conservative economic policy.

Around Birmingham the air is thick with political accusations and counterclaims after the sudden collapse of Rover. The Tories blame the Government, while Mr Brown has announced that the huge pay awards which the firm's managers gave themselves are to be investigated.

(snip)

There has also been a large shift in support from Labour to the Liberal Democrats since 2001. The polls suggest an eight per cent swing to Charles Kennedy's party since then. According to the BBC swingometer, that alone would unseat about 40 Labour MPs, even if the Tory vote were static. There is also the unanswerable question of how many voters will actually turn out on polling day. Labour is desperate to get turnout back to somewhere like normal after the drastic fall to below 60 per cent in 2001. The most recent Mori poll suggested that if 79 per cent of voters turn out, Labour will win with a comfortable 100-seat majority. However, though the Tories have fewer natural supporters than Labour, they are more likely to turn out to vote. According to the same Mori poll, if turnout fell to 55 per cent, there would be a hung Parliament, with more than 80 Labour seats lost. The casualties would include the Secretary of State for Education, Ruth Kelly, in Bolton West.

More at: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=627948

[Canuckistanian]

1. Whoever wins...

I don't envy you your choices....

[fedsron2us]

2. Politicians should be careful what they wish for

Winning this election, particularly with a smallish majority, could prove to be the worst thing that could happen to a party. Storm clouds are gathering over the British economy. When they break the government of the day will carry the blame. I think the victors of this poll will enjoy four year of political misery and then will be washed away at the subsequent election by a landslide.