He wants to, yet he doesn't. Will Brown do a Callaghan?

[Albus]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/election-timing-gordon-brown

The last thing on his mind? Get real. The prime minister will be agonising over election timing. It's all worryingly like 1978

In early 1978, with the British economy still in crisis, the Tories leading in the polls and speculation mounting about the timing of the next general election, the veteran Keynesian economist Lord Kaldor sent a message to the Labour prime minister James Callaghan. Kaldor had studied both the economic forecast data and the political polling in depth, he told Callaghan's office; and he had reached a clear conclusion. It would be a fatal mistake to hang on until 1979 in the hope things might improve. All the data pointed to autumn 1978 as Labour's best chance. "It will be the Labour peak," Kaldor told Callaghan. "It may be a submerged peak, but it will be a peak none the less."

Well, as we now know, Callaghan failed to take Kaldor's advice - and the rest is history. In the autumn of 1978, there was indeed a Labour peak, just as Kaldor had forecast there would be, during which Labour even nudged briefly ahead of Margaret Thatcher's Tories in the polls. But Callaghan hesitated and, in May 1979, his Labour party was pitched out of office for what would become an 18-year long night of the soul in opposition.

Gordon Brown may have chosen to say in public this week that the date of the next general election is the last thing on his mind, but it beggars belief that this is actually so. Right now, Brown certainly wants the nation to see him saving the world or feeling the people's pain as he goes on his listening tour around the English regions this week. After that his aim is to be seen in the frame for a while with Barack Obama, as the planet's twin men of destiny. What Brown really wants is for the election date to be the last thing on the nation's mind. But it is inconceivable that it is the last thing on his own. Get real. He is thinking about the election morning, noon and night.

[T_i_B]

1. 2009 has only just begun

We don't yet know what the next year holds and in any case, with things as they are it's not wise to think that Labour would nip back in at the moment. The credit crunch has happened on Labour's watch and a few people will remember that. The polls have been wrong before and it's not well advised to think that we could tell what would happen were an election to be held tomorrow.

As such I think it's fair to say that Kettle is talking crystal balls in this article. The media and the blogosphere may want a general election but I'm not sure that the general public want one.

[emad]

2. 10 January 1979: 'No chaos here" declares Callaghan (BBC headline):

The Prime Minister, James Callaghan, has flown back into strike-torn Britain denying allegations the country is in chaos.

Mr Callaghan told reporters at London airport he would not be declaring a state of emergency - and he dismissed suggestions the country was facing an industrial crisis.

He said: "I promise if you look at it from the outside, I don't think other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos".

Mr Callaghan has been attending a four nation summit in Guadeloupe when many MPs felt he should have stayed in Britain to deal with the widespread industrial unrest.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/10/newsid_2518000/2518957.stm

[emad]

3. 10 January 1959: "No chaos here!" declares QEII, inviting Harold Macmillan

to form a government...


1957: Macmillan becomes Prime Minister
Harold Macmillan has accepted the Queen's invitation to become prime minister following the sudden resignation of Sir Anthony Eden.

The appointment was officially announced from Buckingham Palace this afternoon after the Queen had held meetings with Tory elders Sir Winston Churchill and the Marquess of Salisbury.

In a televised speech this evening, Mr Macmillan, 62, said: "We have a difficult task before us in this country - all of us.

"It will need all our courage and strength, and we shall need the sympathy, good will and understanding of everyone in the country, whatever their party or beliefs."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/10/newsid_3783000/3783251.stm

[emad]

4. 10 January 49 BC: "Definitely NO CHAOS here", declares Julius

Caesar as he crosses the Rubicon, signaling the start of civil war.

Events 10 January
* 49 BC - Julius Caesar crosses the Rubicon, signaling the start of civil war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_10

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Ru·bi·con / ˈroōbəˌkän/ a stream in northeastern Italy that marked the ancient boundary between Italy and Cisalpine Gaul. Julius Caesar led his army across it into Italy in 49 bc, breaking the law forbidding a general to lead an army out of his province, and so committing himself to war against the Senate and Pompey. The ensuing civil war resulted in victory for Caesar after three years.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O999-rubicon.html