Some speculation about the 2012 Texas Senate race

[PDittie]

http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/2011/01/maybe-she-means-it-this-time.html

[sonias]

1. Bill White said he wasn't running already didn't he?

:shrug:

See that you updated your site to say so too!

[sonias]

2. The Tribs Take...

Texas Tribune 1/13/11
Potential 2012 U.S. Senate Candidates

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s announcement Thursday that she won't run again for the seat that she has held since 1993 was not entirely unexpected, but it still has the potential to overturn the state's political apple cart. Already, several prominent pols in both parties have announced their intention to run, and several more are considering it. State lawmakers who are up again in 2012 have a decision to make: They can’t run for reelection and run for Hutchison’s seat at the same time. By contrast, most current statewide officeholders aren’t on the ballot again until 2014, so a run for the U.S. Senate this time would be a free shot. The GOP is favored to retain Hutchison's seat — no Democrat since John Sharp ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2002 has won more than 46 percent in a statewide race — so the Republican primary is likely to be the real battle. To separate the would-bes from the could-bes, we’ve created a guide to certain, likely and plausible candidates — as well a few who are plausible only to us here at the Trib.

They feel like Dewhurst is the man on the Repuke side and have John Sharp in at high and Chris Bell in at a medium pick on the Democrats side.

With fancy picture chart!

[PDittie]

3. Bell won't run

Nor do I think Barbara Radnofsky or Ron Kirk will go. Don't think Rick Noriega will, either (though would be highly supportive if he did). No to Chet Edwards as well. Joaquin Castro's time hasn't come yet.

Frankly, Sharp is it. It won't be an uncontested primary -- there's always Gene Kelly -- but Sharp is our best shot at winning the seat. He'll make Ben Nelson look like a progressive if he does, but when the Republicans nominate Dan Patrick or Michael Williams, Sharp will be able to draw off a lot of those "moderates" in the GOP.

Today I would say that I believe it's going to be Dewhurst and a TeaBagger in a run-off in April of 2012.

And Sharp can win if he's up against a TeaBagger, plainly and simply. Sharp can particularly beat The Bowtie, because there are so many racists and bigots in this state that will not vote for a black man no matter how much he panders to the Teas. "Mod" Republicks will split their tickets big-time if Michael Williams is the nominee. And just imagine if the top of the 2012 Texas ballot is Sarah Palin and Michael Williams versus Barack Obama and John Sharp.

Dewhurst will be the even-money favorite in the GOP primary, but don't count out the freak show. They like to send messages even if it means they lose in November (see Angle, Sharron and O'Donnell, Christine and Buck, Ken).

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/3/917022/-Tea-Party-cost-GOP-control-of-the-Senate

[sonias]

4. "don't count out the freak show"

Nope I won't and in fact look forward to the gop primary.

:thumbsup: