Rasmussen: Hutchison catches up to Perry

[sonias]

AAS 9/17/09
Rasmussen: Hutchison catches up to Perry

By Jason Embry | Thursday, September 17, 2009, 12:51 PM

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has caught up with Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary race for governor, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

The telephone poll of 790 likely Republican primary voters shows Hutchison up 40 percent to 38 percent, which is within the margin of error. It also shows 19 percent of respondents undecided and 3 percent supporting Debra Medina, who formally announced her candidacy last weekend.

Rasmussen had Perry leading by 10 points in mid-July. The new numbers indicate that Hutchison received quite a bounce from her August announcement tour, which was panned by several pundits in Austin.

Expect little Ricky to get more vitriol in his accusations of KBH being a Washington insider. He's already got Rudy Guiliani on the trail picking the big money pockets for him. And he's pulling some Phil Gramm-standing by sending in the Texas Rangers to "secure the border"



Sonia

[Aragorn]

1. waiting...

for a good democrat - or at least non-republican - to take the lead on election day. Meanwhile I will add this instead a new post: What did the Texas legislature waste the whole session on, leaving far more important items undone? And what bearing could this court decision have on it anyway?
http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/indiana/Court_declares_v...
Would KBH or RP either one move this state into meaningful progress? I do not think so.

[sonias]

3. I saw that Indiana ruling

Good news for Indiana. No unequal treatment of voters. If mail in ballots don't have to provide an ID - how can you be sure there is no "alleged ballot fraud" committed that way? They excluded mail in ballots because supposedly more Rs vote by mail than Ds. Now what are they going to do?

We've been lucky that we've managed to hold this off in Texas for 3 sessions now. It has been a total waste of time - a "so-called solution in search of a problem". We do not have any discernible level of in person voting fraud. Certainly not the kind that would justify potentially disenfranchising poor and elderly voters who do not have government issued ID.

But Perry and KBH are all about supporting it of course, because their base believe that "illegals" are voting and stealing their country right out from under them. And KBH and little Ricky want their base to chew on that kind of nonsense. It distracts them from real issues like the fact that insurance premiums have gone up 92% in Texas since 2000. Can't have their folks focusing on a real issue like that.

Sonia

[tammywammy]

2. I thought Perry was gonna get Gov. Facebook to help him campaign

lol

[tanyev]

4. Lots of people have thought La Palin was going to show up to do something for them.

Lots of people have been wrong.

[tammywammy]

5. Exactly

And Perry needs to get moderates on board, I doubt Gov. Facebook can do that. Maybe she'll go off on Hutchinson "pallin' around with terrorist" (bring up the whole pro-choice angle with Hutchinson).

Whatever, I pray that the dems can really fight against Hutchinson if she wins the primary.

[sonias]

6. Cross tabs of the poll

AAS First Reading blog 9/18/09
Digging into the Perry-Hutchison poll
(snip)
What’s also interesting are the crosstabs. Hutchison has a slightly larger lead among women than Perry has among women. And she does better with those who don’t identify themselves as Republicans but whom Rasmussen thinks will vote in the primary.

I thought the age breakdown was particularly interesting:

Ages 18-29: Prefer Hutchison, 41-26

Ages 30-39: Prefer Perry, 47-38

Ages 40-49: Prefer Perry, 38-37

Ages 50-64: Prefer Hutchison, 43-34

Age 65 and over: Prefer Perry, 47-33

The breakdown by income was also interesting:

Under $20,000: Prefer Hutchison, 61-24

$20,000 - $40,000: Prefer Hutchison, 41-33

$40,000 - $60,000: Prefer Perry, 50-34

$60,000 - $75,000: Prefer Perry, 39-37

$75,000 - $100,000: Prefer Hutchison, 45-41

More than $100,000: Prefer Perry, 41-37

That seems to indicate that Independents are breaking for KBH as are young people who are either Rs or Independents. Perry is in the middle. Highest numbers in the $40-60K earner range and with people 65 and over. (Set in their ways?)

Sonia

[tammywammy]

7. And this I can kinda understand

I know that myself, a 29 year old in the $20-40k bracket would prefer Hutchinson over Perry (and a democrat over both). I am surprised that her lead among women isn't larger though, but it's still early yet.

The lower income people probably think KBH will be more helpful to them, versus Mr. I Don't Need No Stinking Stimulus Money. And I can easily see independents breaking for KBH over Perry, especially with his outlandish behavior as of late.