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Michigan DU'ers --- how optimistic are you about Obama's chances?

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:38 AM
Original message
Michigan DU'ers --- how optimistic are you about Obama's chances?
Michigan is the blue state I'm most pessimistic about. I think we'll win it, but from what I've read, McCain has a better chance here than most of the other states Kerry won in 2004.

For one thing, despite leading the polls pretty consistently, Kerry only beat Bush in the state by 2 or 3 points.

Also, McCain has always been popular in Michigan.

Granholm's unpopular and that might rub off on Obama.

And racism and tensions between Detroit and the rest of the state, plus the whole Kilpatrick fiasco.

And on top of that, Obama has a poor organization in the state, a relic of the fact that he didn't contest the primary.

So... am I being a concern troll? Do you think we'll hold Michigan?
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corkhead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
1. When it comes down to it, Michigan votes with it's pocketbook. Obama will take Michigan
He is going to be at the high school I graduated from this evening. I wanted to get tickets but they were gone in 15 minutes. There is a lot of misunderstanding about taxes though. Low information voters seem to think that Obama will raise their taxes and McSame will lower them which as we know is patently false.
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UrbScotty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
2. I think Obama has a much stronger organization than Kerry did
He seems to have more paid staff, more field offices, and plenty more volunteers.
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Strawman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. Their odds in MI were better with Romney
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 02:04 PM by Strawman
Palin might marginally help McCain in Macomb County and outstate but I can't imagine Mittens' country club supporters in Oakland County (who want them to fail so Mittens can run in 2012) raising much money or working too hard to get out the vote. Overall, I think the net effect of Palin was a negative for them in Michigan compared to Romney, especially as it affects fundraising here. The hard-core folks may cheer a bit louder at their rallies for her than they would have for Mitt, but don't think they're going to be able to fill up buses with evangelicals afterward to go knock on doors for McCain like they did for Dumbya, even with Palin on the ticket.
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MichiganVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. Obama needs more ad's in Michigan and they need to be more population specific.
Not prepared to say whether Dem.'s will take Mi. or not as both parties have been fucked up where this state is concerned. He who wants it will have to work for it.
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GreenEyedLefty Donating Member (708 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. He has a much better campaign apparatus than Kerry did.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 08:35 PM by GreenEyedLefty
In 2004, a bunch of us who got together via Meetup.com could not find a Kerry campaign person anywhere.

Now, there are many Obama campaign offices throughout the county (Oakland). People are on the ground canvassing every weekend, phone banking, you name it. We have a list of hundreds of volunteers in our community alone who can't wait to help out.

I honestly believe that if every Obama supporter spent an hour between now and the campaign knocking on doors, talking to neighbors or phone banking, he will win this state handily.
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Fire1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Obama/Biden sign
Since you're in oakland county, please tell me where I can get a Obama/Biden lawn sign.
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SharonRB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-10-08 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. As far as I know, they haven't arrived yet
Should be here any day. I know they'll have them at the OCDP headquarters in Royal Oak, but they should have them at any Obama headquarters once they arrive. Keep checking your local office.
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Fire1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
6. cautiously optimistic
I'm pretty confident about Detroit. Oakland county may be split down the middle. I think we can rule out Macomb. Everywhere else? Who knows? I'm hoping the college towns put us over the top.
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livvy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 05:17 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. I'm not willing to rule out Macomb quite yet.
There is a strong volunteer effort going on here, canvassing every weekend, phone banking, and the number of volunteers is growing. I've gained about 5 volunteers on my team just this week.

Welcome to DU, by the way! :)

Lawn signs should be available at your local office. You can find out where it is on barackobama.com

This page should help you find the one closest to you.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mioffices

You can also order on line at their store, but it takes a week or two for delivery, unless you pay extra for expedited shipping.
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Fire1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-10-08 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Property foreclosed?? Can't vote!!!
Edited on Wed Sep-10-08 10:36 AM by Fire1
Well, you can rule them out, now. Just read on the DU home page. Repuks gathering lists of foreclosures in Macomb county to claim these ex-property owners are no longer eligible to vote!
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livvy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-10-08 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Haven't seen that. I'll have to go look.
I know I read something a while back about the foreclosure issue in Michgan, but I hadn't seen anything else about it. Thanks for the tip. I'll check it out.
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emcoffey3 Donating Member (9 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
9. Hmmm...
It's a tough call. With Granholm's approval being so low and Kilpatrick getting the boot, the Democrats are struggling a bit. On the other hand, our economy is one of the worst in the country. I'm hoping we can pull it out, but I'm not holding my breath.
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
10. Wasn't Granholm fairly unpopular when she beat Dick Devos by a huge margin?
I can't imagine her popularity has changed much since then. Has it?
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emcoffey3 Donating Member (9 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-10-08 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. It's pretty low...
Her approval rating was at 37% as of last month. Detroit Free Press
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sandsavage Donating Member (120 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Speaking only for my area
The University CMU,has plenty of students fired up. Many of my people from the Reservation are plastering
their cars, trucks etc. with signs etc. for Obama.Oh I live very close to Mt. Pleasant. We do have a campaign headquarters in Mt.Pleasant and also Midland. Last week the Morning Sun news, ran a big article,
on how Granholm was going to help Biden practice for his debate with Palin. LOL That just strikes me funny.
Many still do like her here, me not so much. Husband retired few years back from Cmu. Those young people are the best there is. Real smart cookies and we love them.They are working their behinds off for Obama.
We get at least two to three calls a week, from these awesome young people. They are covering our area real good. They also set up in places to register people to vote. I have seen exactly three Mcsame bumper
stickers. About two months ago,got very depressed as nothing was going on here. But now whoo boy things are really starting to pop. We feel good about Obama winning Michigan.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-08 07:52 PM
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