Thank you, Haverhill!

[graywarrior]

At least 40 people out on the streets this morning with Coakley signs.

[A-Long-Little-Doggie]

1. Last night in Lowell...

I am in this picture, somewhere...

[graywarrior]

2. Awesome!

[janet118]

3. Yesterday we had a standout in front of Brown's office in Plymouth

All the Brownies going to see Scott at the headquarters were greeted with Coakley signs. There wrre about 30 of us. Unions came through big time. Judging from regular people, i.e. who didn't have Brown paraphernalia on their vehicles, Martha has pretty solid support in Plymouth, a pretty right leaning town.

I hear the Hull is the bellwether to watch. If it goes solidly for Coakley, things are looking good.

[Kat45]

4. A friend of mine is active in Dem politics in Hull

They're probably working hard on it.

[chelsea0011]

6. Why Hull? Just curious.

[janet118]

7. An analysis posted on Blue Mass Group

Town-By-Town Bellwethers and What to Watch For on Tuesday

Bellwether Cities and Towns

The following towns tend to track the overall statewide results. Obviously the turnout next Tuesday will be much lower than a Presidential or gubernatorial election - but the relative performance of Coakley and Brown (as well as who they are turning out) should be captured by comparing the early reported returns with the town's PVI.

Hull (D+0) - Not only is Hull consistently among the best bellwethers in all of Massachusetts, but it is in Plymouth County, where Brown should do well. If he's trailing here, that's a good sign for Coakley.

South Hadley (D+0) - One of the question marks will be what turnout will be like in Western Mass. South Hadley is a bellwether and also in Hampshire County, which is small in population but nevertheless an area where Coakley should rack up some votes.

Waltham (D+1) - Of course, Middlesex County will be key in this contest, like it always is in statewide races. Waltham typically tracks statewide results, with a slight Democratic lean. Melrose (R+1) is another Middlesex bellwether, though one with a very slight Republican lean.

Winthrop (R+1) matched the Romney/O'Brien results perfectly, and was very close to the state average in the last two Senate races - though it was slightly more for McCain (+3.5%) in '08.

Wellesley (D+1) isn't really representative in terms of its underlying demographics, but perhaps surprisingly it is pretty representative of Massachusetts as a whole in Presidential races. However, Wellesley is one area that displays a different dynamic in off years - Romney and Chase did about 8 points better than the state as a whole. Sudbury (D+1) is very similar.

Chicopee (D+1) in Hampden County is another politically representative town, albeit one that has trended more Democratic in off-year elections.

Falmouth (R+3) - Barnstable County should be Brown's best area, and Falmouth is the biggest swingy town in the county. If Coakley is winning by a decent amount in Falmouth, it bodes very well for her.

Westport (D+1) - Bristol County had awful turnout in the Democratic primary compared to other areas, so it will be a county to watch on Tuesday. Westport is also a bellwether, though interesting because it trends more Democratic in off-year elections.

Other key cities/towns to keep an eye on include Milton (R+0) , Quincy (R+1), and Fitchburg (R+1).

For anyone interested, the most Democratic town in the state is tiny Aquinnah on Martha's Vineyard (D+29). The most Republican is Charlton in Worcester County (R+22), which gave Bush a whopping 65% in 2004.

[chelsea0011]

8. Thanks. That's interesting. Brown will probaly get around 70% in my town

where he was a rep in one district(mine, no less), so I'm not looking here for any trends. But, I'm hoping Coakley has a strong, silent minority here that will get out and vote.

[janet118]

9. There's a lot of variables because it is a special election . . .

and hard to predict, but Hull has a strong Democratic base, a new upscale class and lots of working class families so it will be interesting to follow.

[No Elephants]

5. K & R