"Close race in Hawaii in Congress?"

[Freddie Stubbs]

I was not aware of any close races for congressional seats in HI, but Howard Dean recently said this:

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean addressed a partisan student crowd at the University of Miami on Tuesday, predicting his party would wrest control of the U.S. House of Representatives -- and likely the Senate -- in next month's midterm elections.

''Twenty-eight days and eight hours -- if you include the poll closing time in Hawaii,'' Dean told the crowd of close to 300 at the university's Storer Auditorium in Coral Gables. ``And we do have a close race in Hawaii in Congress.''

more: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/2006/10/11/news/local/15727878.htm

Are one of the seats really competitive, or was Dr. Dean just stretching the truth a bit?

[Quetzal]

1. Well, I haven't seen any polls for the 2nd congressional district

which was probably the one to which he was alluding. It is between Bob Hogue and Mazie Hirono. However, Hirono has a significant money advantage over Bob Hogue. Both have high name recognition.

The 2nd includes the neighbor islands Maui, Big Island, and Kaua'i, the areas that went big for Kerry in 2004. However, it also includes rural O'ahu which also went fairly down the middle between Bush-Kerry.

I can understand why Dean may be concerned - the demographics of Hawaii are changing, but I don't think it is to the point that it will lead to Hirono's detriment.