Democratic Senatorial Primary

[TSIAS]

Since we've got this nice new forum, I figured we could discuss the primary race between Castor, Penelas, and Deutch. I'm undecided at this point, but I'm leaning towards supporting Betty Castor.

I'd like to hear everybody else's opinion on this race. Once my donation goes through, I can put this up in poll format. For now, I'm more interested in the reasoning than the actual votes.

[Bombtrack]

1. Penelas is CLEARLY the most prudent choice in my opinion

He is the only candidate to have a virtually garenteed boost from both the GOP leaning Cuban community, and cut into votes the GOP needs, and the overall hispanic community, which leans dem slightly, and excite them, and also probably other minorities as well.

He is the only candidate, therefor in my opinion, with almost a garentee of helping Kerry carry the state, giving Kerry a bleedoff of Cuban and hispanic votes, which we all agree is extremely important.

Penelas is even more needed if the GOP nominates Mel Martinez.

Alex has a very strong record. His county lead the state in job growth, in a state with already high growth, not an easy task. He's been a leader in all sorts of healthcare and pre-K programs in a state with a large population of new/young families. He cannot in my opinion be painted as a narrow partisan, which wether you like it or not, will be needed in a middle of the road state.

Castor reminds me of Jeane Shaheen, and Floridas politics are in a similar place to New Hampshires. I really think she'd just be a sacrimental lamb if nominated. Deutch is an anti-impressive blowhard, he'd be a really bad candidate

[Rowdyboy]

2. Hate to hear that about Deutch....

I understand he's Clinton's favorite. I agree with your thinking on Penelas, though, and would probably vote for him if I lived in Florida. (And, yes, I know he was precious little help in 2000-he's still the most likely to both win and help Kerry).

[Bombtrack]

3. Most of Penelas bad press comes from one misleading journalist

Jim Defede of the Miami Herald. Penelas told my civics class that he declared a journalistic Jihad against him and his city council allies ever since Alex declined a long in depth interview when he first ran for mayor. You will never see that guy spin one argument as anything but negative. He has done this to other politicians as well.

In 2000 the Gore campaign gave Penelas the cold shoulder when he offered to campaign for Gore, whom he endorsed. During the actual election and aftermath Penelas was on a pre-planned trade meeting/vacation in Spain with his family. He DID NOT as many have suggested here go on a whim because he wanted to avoid fighting the GOP on the recount.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Thats good to know...

Most of my perceptions of those months after the 2000 election are sort of hazy, an unending horror of day after day of confusion and uncertainty. I fixated for six weeks and when the SC made their 5-4 decision, I quit watching the news for two years.

I knew there were accusations against Penelas, but I was unsure of the source. He's certainly the perfect candidate on paper. How will the Latino community in general and the Cubano community in particular, react to having Penelas running in the Democratic primary and Martinez running in the Republican? Is Penelas competitive with a Republican Cubano? Any ideas?

[Bombtrack]

5. Well I think that basically if McCollum is the nom, we almost need Penelas

but Castor could have a chance to pull it out. If Martinez is, we DEFINETLY need Penelas.

There is a reason Martinez is Rove's candidate. He would help Bush the most. And they are dreading Penelas getting the nomination. Hopefully, there wish won't come true on either count.

[Orangepeel]

6. You bet I'm with Betty

Betty is a good public speaker, has been elected statewide before and is the only candidate who is currently competitive with both McCullum and Martinez (polls show her slightly ahead of both, while Penelas and Deutsch are both behind).

Betty can win because she can win the same voters that Bill Nelson won -- she's from the swing region of Central Florida and comes across as reasonable and moderate. She was slow raising money, but she had an excellent last quarter and is currently competitive.

Penelas is an excellent public speaker, but he won't carry Central Florida, which means that he will lose. Our large Puerto Rican population won't be more likely to vote for a Cuban candidate. I admit I'm biased, because I don't support candidates who host fundraisers for republicans who are running against Democrats, like Penelas did in 2002, but the Central Florida thing is a legitimate issue.

[Bombtrack]

7. Penelas has just as good a chance at carrying central Florida as Castor

His bridge-building moderate record as Mayor, will be a strong selling point. Executive experience and success is more easily translatable in campaigns than legislative. Florida is hemogenized enough that just the geographic areas of Castors hometown(Tampa is it) and Penelas's aren't really that big of factors compared to each other. They aren't going to run ads saying I'm from Tampa, I'm from Miami. Because very, very, very few people would vote for one democrat and not the other based on that. If anything, I think a stong case can be made that Penelas is far more likely to draw more undecided's from his region than Castors from hers because of that general regionality because Penelas was a successful mayor of an entire county, and Castor was just a state senator and college president. So while pretty much every decision Penelas made affected everyone in Miami-Dade county, decisions Castor made were diluted throughout the entire state, and of course to University of South Florida students.

And I don't think we have the luxury of not nominating the clearly strongest candidate and one that will help Kerry most because he naively put his friendship over his partisanship. I don't think he hosted that fundraiser either, I think he spoke at best and co-hosted it at worst. And he said he wouldn't have if he'd known Mario would have been as conservative as he is. He thought he would be more centrist like Lincoln.

[Orangepeel]

8. Betty was Education Commissioner

that was a statewide election. She was also President of the Florida Senate, not just a State Senator.

And as to whether or not Penelas could win Central Florida... it's not just regionalism, it's organization. Betty is well known and well liked in the area. Penelas is not.

[dryan]

9. Leaning towards Castor

Penalas can't be trusted in the crunch time - he betrayed Clinton/Gore over the Elian Gonzalez fiasco. Sorry to be blunt but that's the truth.

Mel Martinez is not going to win--he's from Orlando and I've known him for almost 25 years. Even in the Sentinel the reports have not been positive. He did appear at Tiger Bay a few weeks ago.

[Rationality]

10. Totally undecided

I've heard some good things about Peneles, and I know Deutch was in a pro-Israel rally here, but otherwise I'm clueless as to what they stand for.

As for the Republicans, I'm hoping they are stupid enough to nominate Johnnie Byrd. He's such a nutcase I don't think we'd ever lose to him.

[Dr.Phool]

20. Latest Rumor

Rumors are rampant that at noon on Friday, May 7th that Byrd will drop his Senate bid and file for Congress in the 9th District.

:wtf:
2 years ago, during re-districting, he had the 9th gerrymandered to include his house in Plant City. The Rep. in charge of the boundries wouldn't go along with it unless it was approved by Gus Bilirakis, who plans on inheriting it frome his father in '06. About an hour later Byrd brought in a sheepish looking Gus (Byrd was House Speaker) and said he approved it.:spank:

I hope he does. I'm trying to get on the ballot to run against Bilirakis as Democrat. I'd love to see those 2 destroy each other.
Bilirakis is useless, votes exactly the way Tom DeLay tells him to, and Byrd is an insane ideologue.

[TSIAS]

21. Looks like Byrd is indeed running for Senate

Good luck in the run against Bilirakis.

[seasat]

11. I like Betty Castor!

Her education advocacy background will be a great boost and she has great statewide name recognition. She has served on some education advisory boards since she left the University of South Florida. Right now, according to her e-mails, she is polling highest of all the candidates, including the Republicans.

I'm not too worried about Martinez. He ticked off all the small realtors with one of his rulings at HUD. He has a pretty lousy record. However, I would love to send any of our candidates against Johnny Byrd. I think Byrd would lose big time. He is so far right that he makes Tom Delay look moderate. I understand that he is Jebbie's choice and there was a rift between the Bushies over Shrubs backing of Martinez.

[Bombtrack]

12. Johnny Byrd has no chance at winning the nomination

he's at like 4 percent.

Martinez will probably win the primary because he's Bush's candidate

[seasat]

13. I heard Bill McCullum was polling pretty high.

Nelson trounced him. I'm biased, of course, but I'm not real impressed with any of the Republican candidates. I was hoping that Larry Klayman would stir up some trouble among the Republicans. I agree that Martinez or McCullom will get the nomination. I just was dreaming about how much fun it would be to embarrass that sack of feces, Johnny Byrd.

[TSIAS]

14. The last poll had McCollum up 27-18

Martinez is polling a close second, and with Bush's help he has a great chance at the nomination. I suspect either candidate is beatable, but perhaps McCollum would be a bit easier than Martinez.

[Orangepeel]

15. message from the Castor campaign

Dear Orangepeel;

We have some good news! With more than 7,000 donors, our campaign raised over $1.25 million in the first three months of 2004! This means we outraised both of my Democratic opponents. And I'm just ramping up!

We want you more involved. Join our campaign today at www.meetup.com and www.bettycastor2004.com. My supporters are coming together all across Florida. We are engaging our communities, sharing ideas, and building a strong grassroots network. I'm looking forward to working with you - and leading Florida as its next United States Senator.

Sincerely,


Betty Castor



P.S. - Remember to make a difference today - Earth Day 2004!

[dryan]

16. Webster has had to file regular way

Dan Webster did not get enough signatures on his petition drive so he has to file the regular way! It's going to be interesting. PS - Do you think that Bill McCullom hired an image consultant? He looks a lot better.

[seasat]

17. I can't tell about McCollum, he still looks like...

George Will on a bad hair day. Did y'all see what he proposed regarding Cuba?

(Link)
MIAMI — Republican Senate candidate Bill McCollum wants to send undercover agents disguised as tourists into Cuba and wants to change U.S. policy so that no one fleeing the communist country has to be returned, he announced Monday.

McCollum said he supports an embargo of Cuba as strong as the one that helped end South Africa's white minority apartheid rule, but said that the United States has to look at other options since that hasn't been achieved.

"With agents under cover as foreign tourists, liaisons can be developed inside Cuba that can provide valuable information, prepare for a post-Castro Cuba and help undermine the Castro regime," McCollum said in an outline of his proposed Cuba policy.

But rival Mel Martinez, a former member of President Bush's Cabinet who was born in Cuba, questioned the wisdom of openly talking about plans for covert missions.

Covert agents to distabilize Cuba. It kinda reminds me of that other small latin American Country we were so successful in over throwing their government through covert agents that was involved in the Iran-Contra affair. Someone needs to tell this nutjob that tactic has been tried numerous times and is part of the reason why most of the Midlle Eastern countries hate our guts.

How Troxler (one of my favorite columnists) determines the Martinez is a Shrub administration parrot. (LINK)

Klayman lays into all the other Republicans in this article (LINK).

I hope this thing heats up and the Repub form a circular firing squad. This race has the potential for that.

[madfloridian]

18. We are supporting Castor.

We like her very much.

[TSIAS]

19. I've heard a lot of good things about Castor

They're having a debate in South Florida next week, so I'll probably wait to make my decision until I hear each of them speak. Castor does have the support of a lot of elected officials, especially in Palm Beach County. A lot of people I really respect are supporting Castor.

I'll admit that I'm not too keen on Penelas. However, he is rather charasmatic, so I'm not counting him out. It will be interesting to see if Deutch and Penelas take each other out, leaving Castor as the last candidate standing.

[davhill]

22. Betty of Course

We need someone who can appeal to the same voters to whom Bob Graham appealed. Betty can bring independents and maybe even a few crossover republicans in the general.