will ignore the likely revision downward for first qtr 04 in their headlines. Indeed Bush has CEA "estimate" Jan 05 payroll jobs revision as + 288,000 released -but does not plan to release the actual memo to the public - because it is a guess - and the Headline writers with forget that the WH says it may be closer to 500,000, or as little as +100,000 when made final in January 05. NOTICE HOW THE Oct 5 MEDIA HEADLINE "Bush Expects Upward Revision to Jobs Data " ignores the likely DOWNWARD adjustment that will come from revised first qtr 04 numbers to be released in Jan 05.! The Commerce Department has already lowered figures on first-quarter wage and salary growth and analysts have wondered whether this was because payroll growth was more sluggish than first thought or compensation weaker - but thes revisions will not be incorporated into the data until it nails down a final number early next year.
Most economists focus on payrolls (as opposed to the smaller Household survey that gives us that nice 5.4% unemployement rate), which is based on a much larger sample, and the Labor Department says it is the most reliable jobs gauge, but this "guess" will be used to imply HOUSEHOLD Survey job numbers - that show a "gain" in jobs under Bush - are "correct" - or at least it is fair for Bush to say he has not lost jobs!
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/06/news/economy/election_jobs_outlook.reut/index.htmJobs report could be central to campaign
Friday's Sept. jobs report, the last before Nov. 2, is of keen interest to presidential candidates.
October 6, 2004: 3:47 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With time running out before U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 2, Friday's report on employment -- the last one before voters go to the polls -- faces hard scrutiny as the candidates jockey over economic issues. <snip>
But nearly as much attention will be paid to revised data for the March 2003 to March 2004 period that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish, as it does each year at this time. <snip>
The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) circulated a memo this week estimating that payroll figures for that 12-month period could be revised upward by 288,000 jobs. CEA chief Gregory Mankiw conceded, however, that this was largely a "guess" with a margin of error up to 140,000 jobs one way or other. <snip>
An upward revision might help narrow the difference between the Labor Department's two surveys on monthly employment -- one of businesses that shows net losses of 913,000 jobs since Bush took office in January 2001, and the other of households that shows the creation of about 1.9 million jobs. <snip>
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e... Bush Expects Upward Revision to Jobs Data
Tue Oct 5, 3:20 PM ET By Tim Ahmann
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The White House expects revised data due on Friday to show job creation from March 2003 to March 2004 was much more robust than thought, economists who received a White House memo on the subject said on Tuesday.
The memo from the president's Council of Economic Advisers estimates that payroll figures for the 12-month period will be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, the economists said. Current data shows just 709,000 jobs were created in that stretch. <snip>
The Massachusetts senator has hammered Bush over the 913,000 jobs shed since the Republican took office. Kerry hopes to gain from the prolonged bout of job market weakness when voters go to the polls in four weeks. <snip>
CEA chief Gregory Mankiw on Tuesday characterized the memo as just an internal "guess." <snip>
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