More unanswered questions about "Likely Voters"

[LynneSin]

This was a major :think: :think: :think: :think: when I was replying in my other thread about "Likely Voters".


Someone brought up the valid point that many voters, whether newly registered or longtime voters, have moved away from using their lanline phones as their regular phones. I know that sometime in 2002 I got a cell phone and stripped my home phone of every known feature except a dialtone. I have a cheap phone with an answering machine on it and the ringer does not ring. The only reason I use my homeline - to dial my cell phone and figure out where I misplaced it at in my apartment.

But before I had a cell phone, I had every feature known on my lanline phone: Caller ID, Call Waiting, Call Answering, Call Waiting ID - if you were calling me I knew who you were and if I didn't see your name and phone number on my called ID, I would let the call go through to my call answering and figure out later who you were. And because I had call answering, I never heard any messages being left until after the caller had hung up.

So riddle me this batman:

If a pollster happens to be calling a phone number with caller ID on it, what name will appear in Caller ID? Will the pollee see "PICK UP THE DAMN PHONE IT'S A PRESIDENTAL POLL" on the ID or will they see "Out of Area" (that's the message that unknown, unlisted and unwanted calls had).

So are we eliminating even MORE people in our polls because for those people who actually use their lan lines over their cell phones could still be screening out pollsters?

[dave123williams]

1. Yes, and some folks only use cellphones...

They're not polled, either.

[enigmatic]

5. exactly..

Of my circle of friends, only 2 of them (out of 20 or so) is still on a landline phone; all the others have cell phones..

[Philostopher]

2. I have no doubt this is true.

Two Democrats in this household who only answer the phone if it's a family member, one of us, one of our places of employment or some organization that identifies itself clearly and that we want to talk to.

My guess is, polling organizations may list as 'Virginia Call' or 'Minnesota Call' on our Caller ID, but I don't know, because every other time I've picked up the phone for one like that, it's turned out to be some mortgage outfit trying to get us to refinance our house. They may well have tried to poll us, but we don't answer unidentified 'out of area' calls, 'x state' calls, or calls from individuals whose names we don't recognize.

So however many of us there are, we're off the radar to polling organizations too.

[Thrill]

3. I'll answer all your questions

about Likely voters.

They aren't counting young people and minoritites. Their underestimating their turnout.

[ALago1]

4. Hmmm

So what political demographic is likely to use cell phones and avoid unwanted calls via caller ID. For the latter, I think both sides of political spectrum are equally represented.

As for the former, would I be wrong in saying that it is predominantly young people using solely cell phones? If that is true, the young is a demographic that supports John Kerry overwhelmingly. Thus, their omission from the polls could be significant. It's just a question of how many people are using cell phones and are not available for polling. From anecdotal experience, I am a 22 year old and the people I surround myself with pretty much all use cell phones only.

[LynneSin]

8. True, but that would be more of the case in the NE & West Coast

What about Central United States especially in rural areas where folks aren't making that much money to be able to use anything except a lan line? My mother lives in central PA and only got caller ID like a month ago. And she still uses her analog phone she got from AAA (with 30 free minutes a month).

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Pollsters still downplay cell phones: young adults and a small percentage

I study poll numbers but don't pretend to know how to weigh this issue and its impact on political polls. Most of the related articles claim pollsters say the cell phone-only crowd is just 6-8% of households and primarily 25 and under, the bracket least likely to vote. Here are a couple of opinions I pasted into my Excel notes within the last two years:

* Zogby:

"Increasingly, people are relying on cell phones and don't even have a home phone, he said. They still make up only a small percentage of the population, he said. But these cell phone-only users are "demographically distinct," he said, and are almost always "young adults."

"The current approach to cell phones (in polling) is to exclude them," he said. "You can do that with the current numbers. But it becomes less and less acceptable as more households have only cell phones."

* A CBS news article in late 2002:

"Increasing obstacles to phone polling are less likely to affect national polls done by top polling firms that follow accepted practices of selecting a random sample and doing a thorough follow-up to reach everyone possible.

"The more immediate effect is on state polls done with smaller samples on a smaller budget, sometimes by polling companies not familiar with state demographics and voting patterns."

on edit: on review I see you asked about caller ID much more than cell phones. I'll see if I saved any pollster opinions on that, and reply if so.

[grace0418]

7. Very few people actually answer their phones

these days. Even those that have home phones either use caller ID or screen with their answering machines, especially at dinner time. I'm surprised when I call someone and they actually pick up anymore(unless I know they have caller ID and then they say "Hi Grace!").

So who are these pollsters polling? Starting out with "likely voters" (generally meaning people who have already voted before) it narrows to those that haven't moved since they last voted. Then it gets further whittled down to likely voters, who haven't moved, who have a landline without caller ID or an answering machine. From there it further narrows to likely voters, who haven't moved, who have a landline without caller ID or an answering machine and who will answer their phones during the dinner hour. This pretty much consists of my great aunt Rosemary...

Okay, so I'm exaggerating a bit, but if you consider the huge amount of people who won't be polled for various reasons (haven't voted in awhile or ever, only have cell phones, moved since the last election, don't answer unknown calls on their caller ID, etc.) and add that to the news of upwards of TEN MILLION new voter registrations this election (the huge majority of which are DEMOCRATS) and you have one conclusion to make...

THE POLLS ARE TOTAL BULLSHIT. Kerry is probably easily 10 points ahead of where the polls are putting him, which means Bush is probably 10 points behind. And that, my friends, is a landslide.

But let the freepers believe what they want. They'll keep busy sending stupid mail to liberals (did you read that thread?) and maybe won't get a chance to vote because they're so freaking sure of themselves.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9. "Likely Voters" - telemarketers dream

Landline phone polls are biased toward the same people that telemarketers and the GOP just love - the gullible.

[LynneSin]

10. you are so absolutely right

You get into rural america and these folks tend to vote republican and many still do not have cell phones either because the technology is spotty (my cell phone still doesn't work where my grandfather's house is), the cost is too much or the folks just don't like the modern technology.

We have to stop thinking what we as progressives would do and how rural americans think. It's a different world out there!