10/4 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 280 EV, 68% WIN PROB, 50.7% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

On Edit: Correction. I had OH as 49-46 Kerry. Its 49-46 Bush.
It makes a difference.

We'll get 'em next time.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Remember, if its tied, Kerry is winning, because he gets the majority of the undecided/other vote.

The base case model assumption is that he will get 60%.
This is conservative.
So he will do better than this.

My projection is based on recent state polls, but they do not yet reflect the debate.
So he will do better.

The model does not account for the massive democratic registration.
So he will do better.

Kerry has momentum. The model doesn't know it yet.
So he will do better.

There are two debates to come. And don't forget Edwards.
Kerry and Edwards will win the debates.
So he will do better.

The media is starting to realize Kerry is inevitable. That means better coverage.
So he will do better.

F9/11 is out on DVD.
So he will do better.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[childslibrarian]

1. Truthisall you are a bright spot

on the horizon, especially after the Pew poll....

[lancdem]

2. If you want another bright spot

the new CBS/N.Y. Times poll has it 47-47, a 5-point bounce for Kerry.

[blue neen]

3. Thanks for the good news and the work, TIA.

It looks like you have added some new graphs to your data.

[TruthIsAll]

4. And I have the latest CBS poll in the graph. Right up to the minute.

tia

[benburch]

5. you rock!

:yourock:

[TruthIsAll]

6. Sorry for OH typo. Just fixed it. Should be 49-46 Bush.

A three point switch in a big state makes a big difference.

291 EV goes to 280.
Note: the OH 20 EV did not all go to Bush, as they would in straight winner-take-all predictors. The reason is the Monte Carlo simulation gave Bush 20 EV in just 69% of the 5000 trials. Kerry got 20 EV in the other 31%. It's the Kerry OH win probability (31%) effect.

84% Win prob drops to 68%. Ohio is important.

50.8% national vote gotes to 50.7%. No big deal. Its the EV, stupid.

[MockSwede]

7. Like your trend

Lots of data but I like your attitude even more!

[goodboy]

8. nice job....(nt)

[doni_georgia]

9. Good job

One of the folks on that idiot Deborah Norville's show tonight pointed out that the massive number new voter registrations is bad, bad news for the incumbents. People don't register to vote in land-office numbers because they think everything's hunky-dory. The press hasn't made this connection yet for the most part, which is pure incompetence on their part; most press veterans should remember the events surrounding the defeat of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. All of the same characteristics are in place here, now.

The press needs a horse race to sell itself. Unless Chimp/Dick implode in the remaining debates - unlikely for Cheney (if you don't count his blood pump - I refuse to acknowledge that the man actually has a heart), but not unthinkable at all for Chimp - this race is likely to continue to be a mirage - nowhere near as close as it seems.

Case in point: the Pew polls continue to show Bush with a fairly sizable lead. However, the Pew polls discount new registrations as "unlikely" voters. This is a fatal flaw. The Pew system would have projected Ortega to defeat Violeta Chamorro by almost the same margin by which she won. My hope is that the GLOP is relying on Pew. The only thing sweeter than their defeat would be the knowledge that they lost because of their own hubris - their assumption that they could do as they liked, and that no one would really care.

Mac in Ga

[tedoll78]

10. Another thing:

most polling immediately before the 2000 "election" had Gore running a few points behind. If this trend continues, a poll showing Kerry 3 points behind is probably reflecting a reality in which he is either tied or slightly ahead.

[TruthIsAll]

11. Kick for Edwards

tia