I'd almost rather not have Kerry leading in the polls

[GRLMGC]

The polls are questionable anyway so I really don't care what they say. Furthermore, if he is leading it'll just motivate the Bush campaign to get nastier and motivate wingnuts to register to vote in higher numbers. Sure it feels good and all, but it's a double-edged sword.

[Thrill]

1. They're going to do that

anyway. I really don't care about the polls. I've always maintained Kerry won't lose if young people and minorities show up with big voter turnout. The polls mean nothing. They just quiet the talking heads like Judy and Zahn

[GRLMGC]

3. Surely

they won't mention it or will mention it in passing. I'd get mad and call them whores but its not worth the energy.

[Cha]

2. Anything is a "double edged sword"

fighting these monsters..but Kerry did well and we needed an engergizing boost for our Dems..I have seen so many smiling Dems the last two days..I would not take that away from them.

We Will Win ..it may not be linear but we can handle it if bush should get another boost from any of the "surprises" rove said he has in store for us.

The poll that counts is on Nov 2,2004 and Kerry/Edwards will take us to Victory!

[virgdem]

7. It makes me wonder just what those "surprises" are that Rove...

has threatened to have up his sleeve for October. He is just such a sleaze ball that I shudder to think what he will cook up next. Just can't wait(she said sarcastically).

[MADem]

4. It is a stat dead heat

...even though some have him up by three points. The networks are trying to call it a bounce, and we know what happens with bounces.

I prefer to think of it as a step up. We need it to be followed by another, and another, and then another...all the way up the steps of the Capitol to take the oath of office.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Polls Are Important Because They Can Become Self Fulfilling Prophecies

they can give the aura of invinciblity or doom...

[onehandle]

6. The debate and now a lead is mega-motivating our people.

You can feel the energy in the air. Our fight will beat their cheat.

Bush is toast.

[deadparrot]

8. The media wants a story, that's all.

"News" like this is meant to draw in viewership. They're whores. They appeal to the people who appear to be ahead in the "polls."

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Screw that, bigger the better

As long as there's substance behind it, a lead breeds confidence, which breeds followers, which breeds a (more) positive media, which breeds inevitability, which breeds undecideds, which ensures victory.

Carville said it best in '96. An early lead in politics is like a 10-0 lead in basketball, doesn't mean anything but you would always rather be ahead than behind.

The GOP slime tactics will come regardless. But they may be viewed as desperate and dirty if behind, and not receive much attention at all if Bush is leading and supposedly doesn't need them.

[Nicholas_J]

10. No matter how nasty Bush gets

Kerrys performance in front of a large number of voters on national teleivion along with George W. Bush gives the public the opportunity to hear and compare the two for themselves.

First of all, as a number of independent pollsters noted when BUsh started appearing to have double digit leads in a number of media polls after the Republican Convention: "People just dont switch party affiliation after a week". The polls showing Bush with double digit leads after the Republican convention indicate that the tens of thousands of Democrats who have been crying to to place Bush since the questionalble results of the 2000 election suddenly fell in love with Bush and abandoned Kerry (or even eould abandon ANY democratic candidate). These polls are actuallymore in keeping with the percentages that existed before the Democratic convention, when the idea of "Anybody but Bush" was firmly embeddded in the democratic voters psyche. The current polls with Kerry leading are very close to the numbers that were coming up in may and june prior to swift boat ads, and prior to conventions and selection of running mates. They reflect what the political pundits and pollsters were saying prior to all of this. That the nation is extremely polarized, and that very few democrats will vote for Bush and very few republicans will vote for Kerry and that this race will revolve around a very small percentage of undecided swing voters, most of who seem to favor Kerry in most polls. It doesnt matter how many wingnuts register and vote, as long as Democrats are sucessful in getting as many registered democrats to vote as possible. Statistically if every registered democrat voted, and if they voted in the proporoin that they now vote about 90 percent vote for the Democrat and ten percent swing over and vote for Republicans, no Republican would ever win the presidency.

Right now the Democrats are outperforming Republicans by two to one nationally in registering new voters to their perspective parties and in Ohio democrats have registered ten times as many new Democrats as republicans have registered Republicans. All that is necessary is that Democrats keep up with Republicans in registering new Democrats and getting existing Democrats to get out and vote, and Kerry wins. All indications are that Democrats are far more energized and motivated to get out the vote, and have had the better part of year to energize the base and get new voters. No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not be able to energize or regiter enough wing nuts to get the advantage over Democrats in this area. In facr the major independent pollsters have stated that the only way Bush can win this election is if he can get Democrats to NOT VOTE. That is the only strategy by which Bush can win this electio and that has pretty much been the only strategy that they have had. The attenp to make enough Democrats simply sit out the election by making a large enough group of democrats not want to vote for Kerry, and just stay home. Whether by manipulating data in order to make it appear that Kerry has no chance, so they might as well stay home, to attemptong to convince as large a percentage of Democrats to vote for Bush as possible, but that is the secondary strategy. They need to get Democrats to NOT VOTE. WHich is what lies behind the attempt to disenfranchise democratic voters in Ohio because of the thickenss of the voters registration applications. Becasue in Ohio democrats had a 250 percent increase in registering Democratic voters in the last year, while Republicans have only had a 25 percent increase in the same state during the same period.

If the newly registered Democrats vote for Kerry by 90 percent, Ohio becomes a Kerry landslide. Fortunately, the supervisors of elections in the largest districts where Demorats have registered enormously greater numbers than Republicans are simply ignoring the stastements that they cannot register the voters who did not use the form with the correct thickeness. AS long as Democrats stay the course, keep registering voters at the same rate and if 90 percent of them vote for Kerry, no amount of nastiness or wingnut registration can overcome the demographic advantages held by Democrats.

Fron the beginning of this race, and more specificall , since Kerry became the defacto nominee in the spring, the Republicans political analysts have clearly stated and have asserted that Bush has to maintain at least a three point lead over Kerry in the polls in order to win the election (actual, factual polling information ,not polls that are skewed to oversample Republicans because if the data is incorrect, it will still not reflect the actual leaning of voters. The only thing that skewing polls can do is discourage democrats to the point that enough of them do not vote so that Bush can win with a base that does not have a numerical majority).

So having Kerry in the lead, even if it is a small lead is better no matter how nasty the Bushistas get. With Kerry in the lead, Republicans lose that ability to demoralize enough Democrats to not vote, giving them the only advantage they could ever have. Bush needs a minimal three point lead, and needs to prevent as many democrats as possible from voting. With Kerry in the lead in polls, even with a small lead, the demoralization effect disappears, and those who were outraged over the 2000 election come out in force. No amout of wing nut registration can overcome the Democrats numerical majority as long as Democrats do not choose not to vote. Or at least the no-vote percentages remain the same as the Republicans.