Up Coming IMPLOSION Live on TV...Next Debate:: OPI's Predictions.

[opihimoimoi]

Despite all the Kings Men and all the Kings Rats, Humpty Bush cannot come to the debate without and avoid wilting as he did last Thursday.

They will do the crash course and prep him and over prep him and over over over prep him till he is a frazzled babbling idiot, which won't take very much. He cannot think, a result of not reading/practicing, thus forcing him to do what they ran with in #1, memes, memorize a few key phrases and repeat as necessary.

They will attempt to clean up the smirk, the hunch, the deer eyes, the grim grin, and the irritation.....will they succeed?

Don't think so. Too much Pressure. Tons of it per square inch. His head will implode even worse than Thursday. He knows its his to lose and they will keep reminding him of it. But he will because he cannot think clearly ... he will stammer, and fall apart soon after Kerry jabs him with some pertinent questions. This is his lifetime behavior and you can't change the spots in one week....Too little too late....can you see him reading all night to CRAM?

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Kerry has the advantage...

Of knowing that during the first round, he landed a number of crisp blows to his body, in the area of the spasmodic chambers, thus impeding air flow. Now, he can go to the head on domestic and economic issues. Health, outsourcing, tax breaks for the wealthy and how they have been gamed, quite cravenly, to create a chimeric wedge issue...

Unless Kerry suffers a stroke over the next week, look for more of the same.

[Hamlette]

2. too bad its not true.

they will tell Bush to pour on the charm, to do his hail fellow well met immitation, to invite America to have a beer with him.

And it will work.

He couldn't do it last Thursday because the subject was war.

Any other subject and he'll seem charming...to some. If it happens I'll have to turn off the TV.

[Sparkly]

4. I'm not sure, because he'll have to defend some pretty grim truths

Just as he tried to look the other way from Iraq ("it's getting better") he'll have to pretend the economy's not so bad ("it's getting better").

I don't think people in the town-hall audience are going to buy it. The questions at those things are so often, "I'm in this predicament, how will your plan help me?"

The only hitch is that the Chimp spins numbers, making people think his tax cuts help them. But I think that's fairly easy to dispel.

[billkurtmeyer]

6. But war / foreign policy is supposed to be his strong suit and . .

he blew it, I agree with the first post - they can't change him in a week, he will be better but the pressure of knowing how badly he blew the first one will weigh very very heavy upon him - it could get worse for him. Don't forget we aren't talking about an intelligent person here, his thinking is simplistic and clouded from all his years of hitting it hard, he has never had to be on the defensive. His entire life there was someone or something their to cover up for all of his mistakes!

[rocktivity]

18. It was the other way around, actually

The Bush camp wanted to talk foreign policy first because they saw it as Kerry's WEAK suit. Apparently, they figured that all Bush had to do was repeat "9/11, flip-flopper," and Kerry would melt down faster than ice on a hot tin roof. But all Kerry had to do was point out Bush's credibility problems when it came to foreign policy, especially when it came to coalition building--and boy, did it work!

:headbang:
rocknation

[Mizmoon]

7. I depends

It depends a great deal on the questions asked. Will they be stupid non-issues like gay marriage, or real issues like unemployment?

[Joylaughter]

10. Last week was a fluke

We all know that Dubya has only lost 1 debate in his entire life and that his tax cuts were so great for ordinary folk and that some pinky lefty Senator from Mass is a big tax and spender and hocus pocus don't look at the biggest deficit in history run up by this administration and abracadabra the culture war is more important and Alacazam no gay marriage for Fred and Sam.See, * is a u- nigh-ter. A Lee- der. Main stream Val-ues kind of regular guy, Rama Lama Ding dong don't look at his family's history.

[henslee]

19. Have-a-beer approach won't fly, not now, things are way too grave.

Kerry's polite gravitas is just what will work.

[Sugarbleus]

37. Yeah, I'm not prepared to count my chickens yet either

In the next debate, is the subject supposed to be the economy? If so, Bush and his twit followers will soak it up. Repubs have always harped on the Tax and spend liberals Mantra to incite fear in the middle class etc. We shall see.

He could, of course, simply refuse to show up--he has a flu or something.

Still, I'd much rather see the scenario laid out in the original post...Heehee IMPLODE AWAY :evilgrin:

[Blaze Diem]

3. George is counting on Diebold.

I think after the clobbering Bush took at the debate, the whole sorry lying lot of them are counting on Diebold. Its their last hope.

[annabanana]

16. Diebold it is Blaze.......

Massive Voter fraud.
Check out this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2441021

[punpirate]

5. All Kerry needs to do...

... is flick him on the nose with a few facts, let the public know that his over-spending and tax cuts for the rich are intended to kill social programs that benefit all of the country, that "the ownership society" is a Wall Street boondoggle to privatize Social Security, and Bush will, hopefully, wind up, in about the twelfth minute, as a blubbering pool of goo in an expensive suit.

Foreign policy and the war on Iraq were supposed to be Bush's strong point. His idiocy about the economy he's tried to hide under silly catch-phrases such as, "We're turning the corner," only work on his sycophants. If possible, he's messed up the economy and the national budget even worse than his wars. I don't see how Bush will come out of this one smirking.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

8. Watch the town hall meeting carefully

Despite the fact that the questioners are supposed to be "soft" Kerry or "soft" Bush supporters, they will be chosen by Gallup-and we know how unbiased that organization is! I figure that Rove will have some planted questions about devisive issues like abortion and same sex marriage to try and derail Kerry and support the base. I do hope someone comes up from Arkansas and asks Kerry if he plans to ban the Bible, though. (RNC sent mass mailings to AR and WV telling folks that 'liberals' would ban the Bible if Democrats are elected-and despite calls for apologies from Sen. Lincoln and Sen. Byrd, the RNC has haughtily declined)

[TexasSissy]

33. I expect Bush will do well in the "townhall mtg" format. That's his game.

He'll do much better walking around & answering people's questions and propped on a stool than standing behind a podium. Although I think Kerry will do well in this format (he's been campaigning for 20 or more years in small meeting situations; he's used to this sort of thing), I think Bush's style is more naturally this than podiums.

THEN the big economics debate will come, and that one will be a biggie. What everyone cares about and understands more than foreign policy. I'll be surprised if Kerry doesn't win that one.

Of course, in my eyes, Kerry will win both, BIG TIME. :eyes:

[dogtag]

9. Shrub is scared. We know what he does when he's

scared...he runs. If they can't come up with a viable way to get out of it, in the next town hall debate, look for him to end every sentence with a God reference. He'll be relying on religion, but he'll be afraid...very afraid...and it will show. It's questionable just how much an empty suit can be prepped. Especially a scared, unwilling empty suit that would rather go off somewhere and hide.

[Maestro]

11. He'll (shrub) be much better

in the next debate. Kerry needs to stick to the message. Keep it clear and concise and let Bush hurt himself.

[union_maid]

12. I'm more concerned about dirty tricks

I'm not worried about Bush being charming or more prepared. It's clear to me that the whole administration and campaign are in a state of denial if they ever thought that the person they should know a lot better than we do could handle a debate with a real opponent. They can prep him, drug him and feed him one-liners and it's not going to work because Kerry is a strong opponent, rhetorically as well as substantively. Gore was strong on substance, but rhetorically...not so good, his recent rousing speeches notwithstanding.

They also made the mistake of believing their own spin about Kerry. Kerry is not a waffling, longwinded weak man. OK, maybe a little longwinded at times, because he it's not natural for him to take a complex situation and boil it down to a slogan. But he's very smart and an experienced politician and he knows when he has to do that. But they should have understood that the Kerry that the Bush campaign has tried to define is not the real man. Maybe they were confused because Bush, as defined by the Kerry campaign,IS the real man. Either way it was their mistake.

Now, if they face what they have to work with...what are they going to come up with to deal with the reality?

[opihimoimoi]

14. To answer Union Maid, the Pubs will have only one bullet, the Delusion

Bullet, to use on America. They have conned/scammed America for years now and gotten away with it, no reason to change.

But Kerry is about to expose the Bush for what he is, a front man for the Scam....

[annabanana]

17. Stolen laptops and Stolen votes........................n/t

[July]

26. You make an excellent point that I'm going to use with undecideds.

That is, that Kerry is nothing like the caricature the right paints of him, and you only have to listen to him to see that.

[dogtag]

13. I'm concerned about the questions somehow

getting to the Bush camp. Anybody know how far in advance the questions have to be handed in to the moderator for vetting?

[Harlan James]

15. Before the debate all the questions were about Kerry...

...now they're all about Bush. The incumbent has gone from being the accuser to the target. This is a huge shift in the media dynamic, and for me the most significant outcome of the debate.

Finally Bush's record is front and center where Karl Rove and the rest of Shrub's handlers did not want to see it. Bush lost the round that was supposedly his strongest point, and now he goes into the next two debates weakened and subject to the most degrading kinds of scrutiny on topics he'd rather not have to talk about.

$10 says his head blows up and he runs around the stage like a newly unroofed chicken.

:nuke:

[opihimoimoi]

21. LOL, HJames, you got it. ...Like Gary Bauer flipping jacks 4 years ago.

Enormous pressure and his handlers, on the dole, can see their sweet lives coming to an end, will be desperate to stop the bleeding. Thery will insist Bush does this and remember that, etc ad nauseum. "No choice....he has to do this/that.... or we lose"

and so it will go on.... poor Bush, wanna play golf but gatta stay back to do homework....oh the irony of it all.

Bush the PRETENDER, wants to be John Wayne but cannot. Gary Bauer is more of a MAN and that gatta mean something.

[Oak2004]

34. modern campaigns are all about the media

Unfortunately, modern political campaigns rise and fall upon how well the campaign influences the opinion of the media -- and not so much the voters.

That's something the Republicans have understood since at least the mid-1970s. Back in the post-Watergate era when pundits were talking about the imminent death of the Republican party, I began my political life as a liberal Rep, rather than a Dem, after I saw the strength of the Republican party campaign machinery and the behind-the-times weakness of what the Dems had to offer. Of course since then the GOP has become the party of the loony right, with no place for anyone like me. And, mercifully, the Democrats are beginning to build the kind of modern machinery of political influence that the loony right has seized from the GOP and used to hijack America.

This morning I too noticed that the press was treating Kerry much more favorably in its coverage (I actually had to read one article over a couple of times to be sure my eyes weren't fooling me :D ). I hope Kerry's undeniable (no matter how hard they try, and they have been trying) victory will keep the media coverage shifted in our favor.

[newyawker99]

36. Hi Oak2004!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[barb162]

20. the next debate is on the economy, domestic, etc. issues, right?

so we can watch him say over and over and over the economy is headed in the right direction. If one MacDonalds job is created this month, then the economy is headed in the right direction. He will repeat and repeat. He will tell us how outsourcing is good too.

[demwing]

23. No. The town hall debate is on ALL subjects

Security, economics, whatever

[barb162]

25. I'd like to see Lehrer back again, but I am sure we will get some

Bush wuss handling the next debate.

[demwing]

27. 2nd Debate Will Be Handled By Charles Gibson

from ABC.

[TruthIsAll]

22. I agree... he is this close to losing it. He told his aids after

the debate to fuck off...

Next time it may happen on live tv during the debate.

That would be so beautiful.

Come, we go for sushi and charcoal ribs...

[crickets]

30. Seriously?

Did * really tell his aides to fuck off? Bwahaha! Poor Georgie. :7

Come, we go for sushi and charcoal ribs...

I'm there. First round of sake is on me!

[barb162]

31. do you remember where you heard or read that?

It's HILARIOUS! Because we need someone steadfast and strong and someone who doesn't lose it.

[TruthIsAll]

35. I read it somewhere here on DU. Sorry, no link.

It's based on 3rd party info, so...

Buyt I believe it...

[Chichiri]

41. He did?

He actually told them to fuck off? Do you have a source on that? (oh please oh please oh please...)

[Philostopher]

24. Y'know, something I don't think anybody has considered yet

is that Kerry may have used some mindf*ck techniques of his own on Bush*. It's kind of amazing, really, how badly an opponent can be rattled by something like being shown, before the debate even starts, that he's 4-6" shorter than his challenger; Kerry just stared at him with a vaguely interested expression on his face, the whole time Bush* was responding. His body language was, "I can wait all night for dingbat over here to get through his mangled message," which probably rattled the Shrub more than it would have if Kerry had looked annoyed. He never, that I saw, let himself look annoyed.

Now, how that'll play in a town hall debate format, I don't know -- there'll be other places for Bush* to focus his attention, there; shiny moving objects to put his eye on instead of the patient, patronizing face of his opponent. May be a little harder to mindf*ck him, there, but I'll bet Kerry's got guys on this. Bush* has to come off better the next time, and they know it -- but it's pretty entertaining observing the nonverbal interactions of these things, nonetheless, and I'm not thinkig Kerry's leaving that out of his coaching.

[demwing]

28. Kerry does not have to beat Bush in debate #2

He has to be friendly John Kerry, relate to the audience, and get people to connect with HIM.

Kerry has to defeat previous BushCo spin, thats all.

But then, in debate 3, Kerry MUST win. It will be the last thing people remember about the two candidates. Luckily, Kerry will have an excellent edge, especially if Bush does well in debate #2.

Think on this -

The format for #3 will be much like #1. Bush (who does not like to be reminded of his miserable failures) will begin to experience mini-flashbacks of the first debate, lose his cool, and fall apart as he tries to debate economic principles with a Senator of 20+ years. The ego drop will be all the more pointed if Bush is pumped upby a decent performance in debate #2.

So my guess is that Kerry will give Bush a little rope in debate #2, lay off the toughness and concentrate on getting people to smile at him warmly while on camera. Don't fret it if he does, its a trap in three acts.

[Oak2004]

29. I don't think you can gamble with strategic losses

Easing up and gambling that doing so will set your opponent up for a final loss is too complicated, too risky, and not consistent with what I read in John Kerry's character.

Complicated paradoxical manipulations are best left for soap opera scripts; they just don't work on real people in the real world. What's more, if this were like the baseball season, where the candidates had 162 tries to come out on top, it might be okay to sometimes ease up, but this is a "season" of three. Ease up once, then catch a cold or get a toothache or argue with your spouse just before the next one, and you've lost.

Finally, I've never met a politician who wasn't competitive, who didn't want to win all the time at everything they do. Campaigns, even small local campaigns, are brutal exhausting things for a candidate (I can testify to this from painful experience). No one who doesn't enjoy competition for its own sake can go through one race and then come back for the next race. When I look at John Kerry, I see a man with plenty of that kind of competitiveness. He couldn't ease up in a debate without going against his very nature. And if he tried to go against his own nature, he'd come across as having something to hide.

[demwing]

32. You misunderstand me :)

Kerry doesn't have to defeat BUSH in the second debate.

He has to defeat something else - the image that he is boring, stiff, pedantic, etc. He does that, he defeats Bush by default.

Furthermore, he didn't have to defeat Bush in the first debate either, not really.

In the first debate he had to defeat the image of flip-flopper. He defeated that, and by default, he defeated Bush.

Thats what I mean.

And when I say Kerry should ease up on Bush a little in Debate #2, its because being hard on Bush is counter intuitive, because being hard on Bush doesn't make a personal connect with voters. It might fire up the base, but it won't make warm fuzzies.

Debate #2 is about warm fuzzies. Fight the right fight, at the right time.

[bagnana]

38. no sir.

Every time Kerry has tried to place the nice guy game he has come off the loser. He has to be tough, he has to demand answers, he has to insist he can do better. He has to point out that just as Bush lied about the war, he has lied about the state of the union. He fudged and hid the numbers on his budget, on the tax cuts, on the GDP, on jobs, on the cost of the Medicare bill for the pharmaceutical companies that he pushed through. He just doesn't get it. This country is supported by the money that our people spend. The consumers. If you just let the big corporations make more and more money by employing everyone overseas, then what will be the result? Disaster, because no one here will have any money to fuel this economy. Bush thinks that giving more money to his friends and corporate buddies is the antidote to everything. If he can't even recognize the problem, then how can he solve it? The same arguments on foreign policy apply to domestic: if he doesn't see his mistakes, how can he ever fix them?

[opihimoimoi]

39. Take No Prisoners, No Mercy, Git um while Kerry can...win all three

if at all possible....Stomp. kick, claw, etc but WIN. Make the Brat look like the shit he is.

[Barad Simith]

40. nominating (nt)