Georgia to Kerry?

[Quixote1818]

The latest Rasmussen poll in Georgia has Bush ahead of Kerry by only one point. Bush won Georgia by 12 points over Gore in 2000. Thats a shift of eleven points. Also in Mississippi Bush is only leading by 9 points where he won by 17 in 2000. The south has been sold dark read all year now suddenly several states are in the barely Bush or weak Bush column. Does this have to do with John Edwards or do southerners not like scenes of Bush hanging out with the Saudi Family?

Here are some other stats:

North Carolina: Bush leads by 5 points but beat Gore by 13.
South Carolina: Bush leads by 9 points but beat Gore by 16.


Also, consider this, these states were not in play in the last election but are this time:

Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.

[liberalpragmatist]

1. It's very odd

Personally, my bet would that it's an outlier. It matches NONE of the other polls, but who knows. If this holds up that's great news - but I doubt it.

[demosincebirth]

16. Not all Southerers are fundies and maybe see

too much religion in the repugs.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. Unlikely but Kerry can close the Gap in those three states.

There are alot of unemployed folk there and angy military families too.

[speedoo]

3. Angry military families... definitely.

Plus unemployment.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Here's a real possibility:

NC: Bush 54% Kerry 46%

SC: Bush 51% Kerry 48%

GA: Bush 52% Kerry 48%

If we can pull of 6-7 point off of Bush's wins in a number of red States we can increase the popular vote margin too giving us a larger mandate.

[Arugula Latte]

41. I'm just curious, but

why do you think Kerry will do better in South Carolina than in North Carolina? ... I thought SC was a little more hardcore Rethug.

[mitchtv]

8. it doesn't matter with many

they want a bornagain in the WH and they will vote aginst their interest God Guns Gays

[DemFromMem]

4. Majette race may not be a blowout either

A Democratic poll recently showed Majette only down by a couple of points in the Senate race. I doubt either Kerry or Majette will pull it out, but glad to see the state is somewhat competitive.

[HootieMcBoob]

5. Oh Yeah BABY! The Librul Media is gonna jump on this!

You can bet the librul media will be all over this! What's wrong with the Bush campaign? Is he headed for a loss in a southern state that he won decisively in 2000? Is he not connecting with southern voters? Is his campaign in disarray? Is he not likable? Why don't people want to have a beer with him? Is his message muddled? Oh yeah baby! This is going to be topic number one on every news talk show on cable TV. The librul media rocks baby!
:puke:

[A_Possum]

23. I'll be your baby

I like the kinda questions you ask, you crack newsman you! :loveya:

(Just don't throw up on me.)

[onehandle]

7. Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!

Kerry will win, but not Georgia. Rove and Ralph Reed own my state.

Majette is toast.

[Cha]

11. How's McKinney doin'?

:)

[onehandle]

44. No Democrat can lose in my district. She'll win. nt

[UnityDem]

9. Can you provide link?

their site says this is premium info. I assume you pay for this? if not, please print what you can. thanks.

[Quixote1818]

15. Here is the link

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[BootinUp]

10. Call me a skeptical Georgian

Just hard to imagine, plus it means I might have to get off my ass and do something.

[magnolia]

13. Get off your ass!

I'm in Virginia and "doing something" every day!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Can Kerry win Virginia? Shrub won it by 7 points last time.

[BootinUp]

17. The area I am in

is solid Republican, North GA. I don't know any democrats in my area. The Meetups are 30 miles South of me for instance.

[UnityDem]

37. Want to start your own meetup

in your area? this group can help you, contact them if you're interested.
www.kerrywingeorgia.org

[HFishbine]

46. Damnit, Jim

You sure as &!#%# better be doing SOMETHING, or I'll come down there and kick your lazy ass myself! ;-)

[RebelOne]

48. Another skeptical Georgian

because just about everyone I know in this state, with the exception of a few, are Bush supporters.

[magnolia]

12. Maybe.....

My sister-in-law and her husband live in Atlanta. They have always been hard-core, tax-hating Republicans. Racist, gun-owners, etc. They hated Clinton...hated Gore more. Surprisingly they were anti-war before the invasion of Iraq even started. Now they are solid, 100% voting for Kerry.

[DemBones DemBones]

18. All I know is that I'm not seeing Bush* bumper stickers or signs

in northwest Georgia. If people are voting for him, they're ashamed of it or afraid they're in the minority. It's surprising to me.

[BootinUp]

22. You must not be too far from me

Yes, thats true about the stickers and signs.

[autorank]

19. Send in Edwards and thinks for the mind blowing post.

In in VA and we're about to go for Kerry/Edwards. This GA poll blows my mind. I was at Lake Lanier at the end of August and some natives told me that Edwards could win the state for Kerry. I thought they were just humoring me. Well, he and Kerry both can win in VA. I'd love to see Edwards do a bus trip from GA to Richmond. Please God, please.

[napi21]

20. I'm in Ga, and a bit skeptical, but this matches the internal polls

I heard from our Ga. Dem campaign about a week ago. There are several possibilities at work here. There are quite a few Pubs that are pi**ed about the national debt and shrub giving EVERYTHING to his corp. buddies. Every teacher I've spoken to are very upset by the no child left behind BS. Dems are very upset about the treatment that was given to Max Cleland in 2002. Sonny Perdue & Saxby Chambliss haven't been the hit most people thought they would be. Zell has ticked off the whole state!

Certainly, most of the Dem support is going to come from Atlanta and it's surrounding counties. But I think there's a chance!

[simpsonsbuff]

21. Mistake

Hi,
I just joined the board, and realized electoral-vote.com, which im guessing the numbers were taken from, are mistaken. The new rasmussen poll is 53-42 bush. I get the premium service. Unfortunatly, kerry isnt down by one, but it is in fact 11.

[kaitykaity]

25. Welcome to DU.

Good first post.

If you could link it or post the actual data, like a
screen shot, that would be great.

[Quixote1818]

28. Here is the link http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[kaitykaity]

29. Uh-uh. No.

That site gives Oregon to Bush, and that's pure nonsense.

[Quixote1818]

30. He says Oregon is probably wrong but he goes by the latest poll.

If you had read the text from yesterday on that site you would have seen the write up about Oregon.

[kaitykaity]

31. If you're in the information business, you can't

make that kind of mistake.

If he's wrong about Oregon, what else is he wrong about?

[Quixote1818]

33. You have to look at who did the poll in each state

Rasmussen is a very good polling company. The numbers from Georgia are from Rasmussen. The numbers from Oregon on that site are from Survey USA. The latest Rasmussen as well as Zogby polls have Kerry leading by as much as ten points in Oregon however the guy who puts that site up specifically says he uses the latest poll even though he may think it's wrong. In a day or two Oregon will be back in the blue on that site as another poll from Rasmussen or Zogby or who ever else comes out. You have to read the methodology of the site and he admits it's not perfect. He simply goes by the most recent poll for each state. If it were me I would probably put the last three polls together and average them but he is just trying to stay as current as possible. Unfortunately some lousy polling company's can screw up the map for a day or two.

[kaitykaity]

43. It just irritated me when I saw a polling map on

television, I don't remember what show, talk about
that site and Oregon was red. I saw red.

I trust Rasmussen, Zogby, and Harris, so I'll take
your word for it.

Thanks.

[Doosh]

24. Remember Survey-USA(GOP) had Bush ahead in NJ and close in NY

both polls were BS, don't trust these numbers either.

no doubt Kerry has gained ground, but not enough to make him competitive in the deep south. At least he has momentum heading into the debates.

[Quixote1818]

34. Survay USA also has Bush up in Oregon which is crap. I don't trust them

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Georgia state polls ALWAYS overstate Democratic percentage

And by massive margins, unlike any other state. That is something the Diebold conspiracy clan has been conveniently ignoring since 2002 and the Cleland/Barnes races. I have no idea why, but it is amazingly consistent.

The examples are too numerous to mention. Zell Miller polled way ahead in the '94 gov race yet needed a wee hour Atlanta rally to pull out a squeaker. Cleland was expected to cruise in '96 vs. a poorly funded Republican yet won by 1%. In 2000, the Bush/Gore numbers were supposedly single digits, some as low as 5%, yet Bush won by 12 points as you mention.

I have a homemade method of adjusting state polls due to state tendencies in relation to poll consensus. I call it PAN, or Partisan Adjustment Number. Georgia is my highest number, a full 4.5% and that is low. If Bush is supposedly ahead by 6%, I theorize it is closer to 10.5%.

Here is Georgia in relation to the national popular vote average since '88. Notice it has trended at least 9.7% more Republican than the national margin other than '92, when Perot took a significant chunk of the vote. Kerry would probably need to be leading national polls by nearly 10% for him to be legitimately trailing in Georgia by 1%. I should just post all of these state numbers in a thread instead of sticking them in based on a specific state.

Georgia:
'88: Bush (59.75 - 39.50) = + 12.53% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.47 - 42.88) = + 4.97% Republican
'96: Dole (47.01 - 45.84) = + 9.70% Republican
'00: Bush (54.67 - 42.98) = + 12.20% Republican

[simpsonsbuff]

27. this was the best i can do

Rasmussen Reports Georgia

 
24-Sep
16-Sep
28-Aug
4-Aug
7-Jul
2-Jun

Bush
53%
55%
54%
53%
52%
51%

Kerry
42%
41%
43%
42%
41%
39%

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Thank you, and welcome to DU simposonsbuff!

Those numbers look realistic. I saw your other post regarding the 11 point margin, not 1.

But I'm convinced down the line we will be treated to a legit Georgia poll that overstates our candidate's strength, both presidential and senate. Happens every cycle.

[Quixote1818]

35. How did Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 get different Rasmussen numbers

from yours? Someone posted the wrong numbers. Was it Electoral Vote or was it the site you posted? Rasmussen can't have two different outcomes on the same day? Here is the actual site I got my Rasmussen numbers from http://www.electoral-vote.com/

You need to post the site you got your numbers from so we can figure this out.

[simpsonsbuff]

36. Cannot give link cause it isnt availible to non paying customers

its premium 49$ per month. THIS IS DIRECTLY FROM THE SIGHT! I would think the original site would have it right. Plus if anyone is wondering kerry is leading by 3 in pa according the latest numbers from rasmussen.

[louis c]

38. I hate to correct good news

but I am a Rasmussen Premium member, and the numbers released on Friday, September 24 are Bush 53% to Kerry 42%. That's 11 points, not 1 point.

Believe me, I wish you were correct, but I'm afraid you're not.

I have just posted some Rasmussen Premium numbers for Sunday that are good. Kerry is down less than a point, Nationally, and has taken a lead over President Dim-Wit in both Florida and Pennsylvania, so Rasmussen does have good news, but Georgia is not it.

[Dawgs]

39. Forget about Georgia!!!

I live here and would be surprised if Kerry got more than 35% of the vote.

Everybody here is voting for Bush.

[onehandle]

45. Kerry won't win here, but he won't lose by that much.

Many Kerry stickers out there. The Democrats were in full control of Georgia until recently and are making some gains. I believe Sonny will not win re-election.

[liberal N proud]

40. If this trend continues, they will have to play another trump card.

What will it be?

[West Coast Democrat]

42. My husband's step-dad seems to be a reformed conservative...

he lives in Georgia, but I believe he's from Ohio recently. He's not happy with Bush*. I'm pretty sure he's leaning toward Kerry. I once thought of him as extremely conservative and a Bush*-supporter. Now he complains about the national debt and the economy.

[MsTryska]

47. it certainly would surprise the hell out of me.....

Atlanta ITp there's lots of kerry support, but OTP? definitely not. I wouldn't say it's overwhelmingly bush, but it's definitely where i see the Bush bumper stickers.