Betting odds shift toward Bush; Ladbrokes now offering 2/1 on Kerry

[Awsi Dooger]

A significant change since the last time I checked several weeks ago. The race was considered pick'em or Bush a slight 5/7 favorite all year. The thread regarding debate odds caused me to check out the actual wagering odds, which likely changed shortly after the Republican convention. I'll cite Ladbrokes since it is probably the most well known.

Bush is now 4/11, wager 11 to win 4. The takeback on Kerry is 2/1, bet 1 to win 2. So that's 75 cents juice, or vigorish. In baseball numbers it would be -2.75 on Bush and +2.00 on Kerry.

A $100 winning wager on Kerry would return $300, the original $100 returned plus $200 profit.

These odds are poll based. If Kerry cuts or erases Bush's lead with a strong debate performance(s), the odds will shift accordingly.

[featherman]

1. About right at this point, Awsie

and in keeping with the conventional wisdom. Perhaps the CV will change over the next couple of weeks but maybe not.
Incumbency is like home field advantage in college football. The visiting team would have to rate considerably better in power points to overcome this advantage from a gambling line POV. This has not been the case with Kerry as yet.
But like a lot of gambling lines, intangibles may not be factored in here, primarily motivation (ie GOTV) and hidden roster strength (ie. registration advantage).
I like this bet at 2-1.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. It went up a little more than I expected

I clicked onto Ladbrokes site anticipating Bush maybe 5/9, or -1.80, and Kerry 7/5 or +1.40. The gamblers must be giving more weight to the polls giving Bush a significant lead than I do. Especially before a single debate.

Agreed, Kerry has better than a 1 in 3 chance. But I like to wager very close to the election itself unless the odds are bizarre, which 2/1 is not.

Ousting an incumbent, no matter how incompetent, has always been the gorilla in this election. Only Reagan and Clinton have managed that in my lifetime, which is why I handicapped an upbeat communicator like Edwards as our best chance, especially since young women will be so critical.

And I hope we are not relying on registration advantage too much. That helps, but will inevitably be trumped by preference. In Florida and Ohio, for example, given the huge populations and numbers of votes even if we get every newly registered Democrat to the polls it can only be worth 1/4 to 1/2 percent net advantage, absolute tops.

[Guaranteed]

2. Sounds like Kerry's chances are being seriously underestimated.

Place your bets, folks.