Mixed News on National and Battleground Polls from Rasmussen

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3-day National tracking poll shows Bush with less than a 1 point lead on 9/24. This marks a nearly 3 point Kerry increase in one day. Today's numbers are Bush 47.4% to Kerry's 46.5%. In addition, the electoral vote projection is now Bush 213 to Kerry 211.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

However, in the 7 day tracking of 4 key states, Bush has shown improvement. Florida, Bush 49%-48% (This is a 2 point bush increase from yesterday); Michigan, Kerry 47%-43% (This is a 1 point Bush increase from yesterday); Ohio, Bush 48%-44% (This is a 2 point Bush increase from yesterday); Pennsylvania, 47% Tie (This is unchanged from yesterday).

These are all tracking numbers, and should be viewed as a trend. As you can see, the trend is that this race is a toss-up, and with 38 days and three debates to go, don't let anyone tell you differently.

[donco6]

1. I wonder if the electoral projections takes into account

Colorado's potential shift from "all or nothing" to splitting their electoral votes?

We could be the new Florida!!!! AAAAAAAGGGHHH!

[yellerpup]

2. Steady on...

just keep working like you're on fire and keep working to get out the vote. Thanks for the update.

[wryter2000]

3. Thanks

:bounce:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Who are they polling...likely voters, registered voters, other?

[louis c]

5. They are polling registered voters

and they track them. I like this site because of the volume.

In a three day tracking poll, they poll 3,000 voters. Every day they add a new 1,000 and drop the fourth day 1,000.

They are polling every day. In their state polling, they call 500 a day for 7 days (3,500), and add 500 every day and drop the eighth day.

This is similar to the tracking done with in the campaign's themselves.

Scott Rasmussen is an admitted Repug. I use his numbers and Zogby's, who is an admitted Dem.

Both of these sites have very similar results, and have had them for some time, so it gives the numbers added credibility.

If you must follow the horse race part of the campaign, as I do, I think Rasmussen gives a very accurate moving picture of the contest.