Headline: "Ohio Poll reflects a surge for Bush"

[theHandpuppet]

I've got to stop reading reports like this or I may just give drinking a try! <sigh> I don't know what the hell folks from Ohio are thinking.

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/09/22/loc_ohcampaign22.html (Cincinnati Enquirer)

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Ohio Poll reflects a surge for Bush
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategy stays, both camps say

By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - A poll out Tuesday showed President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry by a very unbattleground-like 11 percentage points in Ohio.

ELECTION SECTION

• Election 2004 page
Bush has the support of 54 percent of likely voters, compared with 43 percent for Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader, according to the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll.

One percent is undecided.

The poll of 456 likely voters was taken Sept. 12-18. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, which means Bush's lead over Kerry could be as low as almost two or as high as 20.

<snipping>

An Ohio Poll taken after the Democratic National Convention showed Kerry with a two-point lead among likely voters, which amounted to a statistical dead-heat. Rademacher said Kerry had suffered some defections to Ralph Nader. Ohio is still deciding whether Nader will appear on the ballot.

Other poll highlights:

• Men prefer Bush. Among white men, Bush led Kerry 65 percent to 31 percent.

• The youngest voters, 18- to 29-year olds, backed Kerry 64 percent to 29 percent. But in every other age group, Bush was up by at least 9 percentage points.

• Suburbs and rural areas are Bush country. Kerry leads in urban counties, 51 percent to 44 percent.

[dogtag]

1. Are they posing the question:

If Bush were the last man on earth would you vote for him?

That's the only explanation I can come with the explain these numbers.

[johncoby2]

2. so the hell what?

Nothing like pissing on the campfire to get everyone pumped up and ready to go out and work.

[theHandpuppet]

8. Don't shoot the messenger, friend...

I'm Buckeye born and bred. I don't like reading this stuff either, but I'm out there busting my butt every day as a K/E volunteer. The only people who are pissing on the campfire are folks who jump all over K/E supporters for even discussing the numbers.

[goclark]

Why is it I don't believe this "poll?"

[goclark]

3. Why is it I don't believe this "poll?"

Sorry for the repeat

[aquart]

5. Maybe it's the 4.7 margin of error.

[trogdor]

7. or the really small sample size...

...and the six-day spread.

Craptastic, I tell you.

[polmaven]

9. The question is worth repeating!

:hi:

Actually, the answer could be that this is a Mason-Dixon poll, which really does not have the reputation of being totally accurate.

[theHandpuppet]

14. Not a Mason-Dixon poll.

This was reported as the "University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll" whatever that is. The other polls were reported, in the same article, as follows:

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll released Sept. 8 showed Bush leading by 8 percentage points; a Strategic Vision poll released Sept. 13 showed Bush up by 12; and a Mason-Dixon poll this past weekend for the Cleveland Plain Dealer showed Bush up by 8.

Something is really screwy about these polls. In my trip to SE Ohio a few weeks back, K/E signs were abundant in Athens and Scioto counties, while Bush signs were rare as hens' teeth.

[WI_DEM]

4. well, both ARG and Rasmussen show Bush up by only 2 in Ohio

I doubt very much that Bush is up by 11--that is an outliar.

[LeftHander]

6. Sept 12th? That is old...

A lot has changed since the 12th.

Just like the crooked Gallup poll....

[MsUSA]

10. LOL LeftHander..... September 12 was my birthday,

and I hate to admit it, but I am getting a tad old. (54) ;-)

[roseBudd]

11. ACT, MoveOn & Vote Mob and Voting Is Power are in Ohio

and I run into their volunteers everywhere I go

[spooky3]

12. 2 pts: (1) Cincy is VERY conservative; (2) why aren't they telling us

who did the poll and how it was conducted, which would enable us to interpret the findings?

[theHandpuppet]

13. All they said in the article was...

... it was the "University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll".

[59millionmorons]

15. As pointed out yesterday

This same poll had Bush leading in it's last poll in 2000 by 10, Bush won by 3.

[theHandpuppet]

17. Thanks for pointing that out...

Makes me feel a bit better -- that Enquirer headline felt like a real sucker punch.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. Well that's within the MOE

but let's assume they're off by 7 pts. again.
Bush only got 50 percent in 2000, so take 4 from Bush and give Kerry 4 here, and you've got a 50-47 race.

[onecent]

16. They must be going to try to take Ohio like they did Florida 4 years ago.