Democracy Corp '10 Poll: Dems may lose 15-20 seats in House

[WI_DEM]

Bottom-line, there is no evidence that anything historic or beyond the norm is currently in the works. If the election were tomorrow, Democrats would likely lose about 20 seats in the current 55-seat battleground, offset by some further Republican losses – resulting in a net loss near 15 to 20 seats. That is slightly below the historic norm and less than half of the number needed to threaten taking control. Moreover, the vote and incumbent job approval in the 37 Democratic districts we also polled in July is stable – without sign of a broad deterioration. This should give some perspective.<2>

To be sure, there are serious trends that put some Democrats at risk, particularly an anti-incumbent mood that is apparent in all three Democratic tiers, as well as the Republican seats. The Democrats’ image has weakened since July, along with President Obama’s approval in these Republican-leaning seats, in line with national trends from the late summer. The voters here are split evenly on whether they want to reward their incumbent with reelection or vote for a Republican to control spending.


Yet, the Democratic vote is stable because the Republican brand remains deeply, and increasingly, unpopular. This is part of the reason Republicans are unlikely to see the kind of gains some are expecting. The standing of the Republican Party has declined since April (if not quite as dramatically) when they held a net favorability rating of -7 points (33 to 40 percent) compared to the -14 point today (31 to 45 percent). Both parties are now viewed nearly identically (43.7 degrees for the Republican Party and 43.4 degrees for the Democratic Party)<5> – leaving each party with a comparable wind in its face. There is no wave.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/10/2010-congressional-battleground-stable-and-within-normal-historical-range/?section=Analysis

My own feeling is that it's too early to say how '10 will come out--a vote a year from now is a life time in politics and the 2010 election will come down to:
1) How is the economy doing in November 2010--is unemployment starting to go down?
2) Did Obama and Dems in Congress pass a good health care plan?
3) Where is President Obama's approval rating in November 2010?
4) Which party will generate enough enthusiasm among its base to actually turn out in higher numbers in a low turnout midterm election?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. I agree with this analysis, but expect it to be different in 10 months

"If the election was held today"

Yes, but it isn't held today and I can see nothing on the near-term horizon that will improve the situation for Dems.


As someone once said: "It's the economy, stupid."

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. You seem to be cheering for such a scenario. (nt)

[theoldman]

2. A week is a long time in politics.

Only a fool would try to guess what will happen in an election a year from now. Wishful thinking is a waste of time and energy.

[backscatter712]

4. Despite Democratic infighting, the GOP will not be able to capitalize.

It will be a loooooooong time before many people forgive the Republicans for George W. Bush.

Add in the GOP's purge of moderates and increasing hard-right-wing psychosis, and they're not going to get much more than their base in most places.

They might recover a few seats in deep Jesusland, assuming the party doesn't split in two - the promise of a Conservative party poaching votes from the Republicans is something that we should encourage...

[Jennicut]

5. It still would not give the Rethugs control.

We will lose some seats...it happens during most off years when the party in control has the Presidency, except for Bush for scared everyone right after 9/11 in 2002.

[Robbins]

6. I agree

I have long maintained some Blue Dogs that were elected In districts won by Mccain were Obama Is
unpopular(Translation parts of the South) will lose.Up to 20 seats lost will not surprise me.They
will not be able to win enough to take the House Inless Obama falls to Clinton 94 levels of approval
and the Democratic base Is so depressed It stays home.

[GOTV]

7. Some Dem losses are to be expected and would be normal n/t