2009 is a harbinger for 2010 but not 2012...if Obama was on ballot Deeds and Corzine would win

[Pirate Smile]

PPP polling just posted a couple of tweets that do a good job of explaining the dynamics of the current races in New Jersey and Virgina - and they linked to the column below.

Tweets:

The GOP leads in New Jersey and Virginia are almost completely due to low interest from Democratic voters: http://tinyurl.com/yl7ta4w
10 minutes ago from web

That's why 2009 is a harbinger for 2010 but not 2012...if Obama was on ballot Deeds and Corzine would win: http://tinyurl.com/yl7ta4w
9 minutes ago from web

Thursday, October 15, 2009
Few voters changing sides from 2008

I've gotten some right wing tirades because I told The Hill for a story yesterday that there were very few people who voted Democratic last year changing sides and that the problem for the party this year was largely one of complacency and comparative motivation.

In New Jersey 71% of people who voted for John McCain are planning to vote for Chris Christie and 70% who voted for Barack Obama are supporting Jon Corzine. There is no meaningful difference in the percentage of their party's voters from last year that the two major party candidates are holding onto.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Bob McDonnell is winning 8% of Obama's voters while Creigh Deeds is taking 7% of John McCain's voters.

Republicans are winning these races not because they're winning anyone over, but because they're planning to vote at a much higher rate than Democrats this year. The truth is if the same set of voters who showed up in 2008 showed up next month Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine would both win. But of course that's not going to happen.

This fact doesn't make the potential GOP victories any less valid, and I think they may well be a harbinger of next year's elections. But they say very little about 2012 because if Barack Obama was at the top of the ballot Democrats wouldn't be having these turnout issues.

It also means that if Corzine and/or Deeds can somehow close the enthusiasm gap in the final three weeks of the campaign Democrats might not lose both of these races.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/ive-gotten-some-right-wing-tirades.html

I think we are going to win New Jersey.

[trayfoot]

1. I think we are going to lose in Virginia!

[Pirate Smile]

2. Well, I could have added that along with my NJ comment. I agree with you.

:(

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Should have picked Terry McAuliffe...

:shrug:

[iceman66]

3. I agree with you about Corzine.

Although I'm not sure even Obama on the ballot would be enough to put Deeds over the top.

He's run a terrible campaign, and that has a lot to do with why he is trailing so badly.

[T116]

4. We'll win NJ.We needed to nominate Terry McAuliffe if we wanted to win in VA.

[Sebastian Doyle]

6. Fuck Terry McUseless

And fuck Corzine too. Anyone who used to be CEO of Goldmine Sucks should be running for "lead shower bitch" in a federal prison, not for governor of any state (even one as corrupt as NJ)

[T116]

9. Yes, Let's just hand the country over to idealistic hippies.. that'll solve everything

[Sebastian Doyle]

10. It just might.

Why don't we try it and find out?

God knows we gave the corporate fellating whores enough chances, and they have repeatedly FAILED.

[WI_DEM]

5. Look, Governor races are tough in bad times and unfortunately for Dems we have more

governors than they do and so we will take a harder hit. I think NJ is a possible win, but I wouldn't be surprised if dems lost both. And it isn't a referendum on Obama either, like the media will say.

[Robbins]

7. Corzine will win Deeds will lose

This will be the story.2010 will be different since Obama will be more of a factor,and the 2010
races will be on Cable news more than the 2009 races.Remember a lot of the senate races In 2010
are In States Obama won.3 of our 4 pickup possablties In 2010 are In States won by Obama Ohio,NH,and NC.Obama Is keeping the voters who put him In.and In 2012 Obama will beat Romeny or Palin or Huckabee.

[bigwillq]

8. I think Corzine is still going to win.

Deeds, probably not.

[Pirate Smile]

12. kick

[Hutzpa]

13. Corzine will win and

we will take Virginia, you can bank on it ad take it wall st.