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MO-Sen: Rasmussen Sees Tie

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ccharles000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 11:58 AM
Original message
MO-Sen: Rasmussen Sees Tie
Rasmussen (9/21, likely voters):

Robin Carnahan (D): 46
Roy Blunt (R): 46
Some other: 2
Not sure: 5
(MoE: 4.5%)

Considering what a drubbing Democratic Senate candidates have been taking in Rasmussen polls lately, a 46-all tie in their first look at the open seat race in Missouri sounds pretty good. (In fact, it's not much different from where we began the race in January, when PPP found Carnahan beating Blunt 45-44; the most recent poll of the race seems to be a GQR poll in May, with Carnahan holding a 53-44 edge.) There's a huge gender gap at work here, with Blunt holding a 17-point lead among men and Carnahan holding a 13-point lead among women.

Maybe Roy Blunt has been doing a great job of rehabilitating the Blunt name (although somehow I doubt it, given his frequent attacks on Medicare and his recent comments comparing Democrats to monkeys), as this sample finds him with a 57/33 favorable, better than Carnahan's 52/42. Barack Obama gets a 46/54 approval, and Governor Jay Nixon is at 58/38.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5626/mosen-rasmu...
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:00 PM
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1. If Rasmussen sees a tie, then Carnahan is ahead
Take every Rasmussen poll and add a net 5 points to the Democrat, and you will have accurate results.
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msanthrope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Bingo! n/t
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:00 PM
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2. I don't trust Ras but I agree if true this isn't bad.
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Nuclear Unicorn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
3. 57% of all statistics have uncorrected anomolies.
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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yes, but only 50% of the time...
... ;-)
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Nuclear Unicorn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Everytime I flip this quarter...
...it lands on "sides".
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TlalocW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-23-09 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. When I roll a die
It just teeters on one corner... Pisses me off.

TlalocW
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