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POLLSTER: Looking at Obama's Poll Numbers

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Phx_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-02-09 11:17 AM
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POLLSTER: Looking at Obama's Poll Numbers
A little context is always helpful.


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_fast_does_approval_fa...

David Brooks commented in his column yesterday "All presidents fall from their honeymoon highs, but in the history of polling, no newly elected American president has fallen this far this fast." Mostly right, sort of. But some context would help.

First, Obama's approval has fallen 16 points from his first Gallup poll reading to his most recent, finished 8/31, from 68% to 52% approval. That's a smidgen more than Bill Clinton, who fell 14 points from his first poll to his last prior to September 1, 58% to 44%. One might pick a nit with Brooks that while Obama has fallen two more points he started substantially higher and that 52% now is quite a bit better than the 44% Clinton had at this point in his term.

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robo50 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-02-09 11:21 AM
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1. David Brooks, although sometimes reasonable, is, bottom line, a
Rethuglican, who cannot tell the whole truth, nor put things in context.

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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-02-09 11:22 AM
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2. Brooks has such a valid argument...because W. had such a successful first year
that he ended up below 30% when his second term ended. First year approval ratings are no guarantee of success or failure...Bill Clinton is a prime example of that.
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Miss Authoritiva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-02-09 11:34 AM
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3. Great article, straightforward analysis
Thanks for posting this. The thing that ticked me off the most about Brooks' op/ed is that he never identified which poll or polls he was using for data! Not even the online version of his column included links. This is always a big clue: When an opinion piece writer cites very specific numbers and yet fails to provide their source or include links, you know something's wrong. He doesn't want people to double-check his work -- and for good reason. Fortunately, commenters at the NYT called bullshit.
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