Don't look now, but... Electoral Vote Predictor...

[Chili]

...http://www.electoral-vote.com/

You looked, LOL.

I know, we're not looking at polls 'cause it can be depressing... but does that count when it's good news? :)

I read a post yesterday about his methodology. I agree, it can be confusing and make things look worse than they are, like today's data. Kerry is back up to 269 according to the latest polls, but there's a Gallup poll in there giving New Mexico and Iowa to Bush. IA might be shaky, but I don't believe this about NM for a moment, it's a 15-point swing. It's also got Maryland tied (Survey USA). I don't believe that either. So if you add MD's 10 and NM's 5, that's 284. And I'm loving the thin pink lines around VA,AR and AZ...!

Still, even though it's not perfect, this site seems to be fairly close to reality. At least today, I hope so.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. If Kerry stays agressive...

Look for it to get better. Frankly, this memo shit plays only to The Chimpian Base and is fodder for them only.

[terrya]

2. I agree with you. And Kerry will stay aggressive.

I think he's found his stride. He's in full attack mode now. The electoral vote count will get better.

[geekgirl]

3. Have you looked at his final prediction?

He has Bush in a landslide.

[Chili]

6. no, I take him at his word, LOL

"...this map should not be taken too seriously until October."

Even in/after October, I'm not going to look at that, I think it's too ambitious to project using these zigzag polls...!

[shockingelk]

4. good for trends

The only things there polls are good for are determining trends and if it's even close.

Kerry is certainly on the upswing and it'c certainly close. That's all you need to know.

[louis c]

5. I 'd settle for that on election night

You can give Bush Arkansas, and give Kerry Maryland.

That would be good enough for me.

P.S. I'm seeing a lot more Rasmussen in the results.

[bluestateguy]

7. At least New York is back on track

Those 2 single digit margin polls had me scared. New Jersey is back in the Kerry column, but still too close for comfort.

[Zynx]

8. There were polls the day before in 2000 that showed Bush tied in CA.

My conclusion is that polls are worthless.

[shockingelk]

10. Why is AR not in play?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html

It has a heterosexual superiority amendment on the ballot, but also has the Big Dog.

[LTR]

9. A few observations

According to this (which is fun to look at, but not highly credible):

1. Iowa and New Mexico are NOT going red.

2. Arkansas is very much in play.

3. Maryland is not even close to being red, let alone a toss-up.

4. Florida will be very interesting.

5. Is Ohio really that much of a blowout?

6. Welcome back, Wisconsin!

7. Colorado will be a big tossup, but in the end, I could see it going red.

8. Can't believe Nevada has been polling red. I thought they hated Bush there due to the Yucca Mountain thing.

[Road Scholar]

11. Don't even look at the polls until after the first debate.

Then they will settle down, trends will start to mean something.Notwithstanding, of course, there are no more smear surprises from Rove and Co.

[Doosh]

12. looks like New Jersey finally woke the f*ck up

and new york

Kerry- 55%
Bush- 39%
nudur- 4%

back to normal

[DeepModem Mom]

13. kick