Palin the Quitter actually has a pretty easy path to the nomination

[Perky]

If you apply the 2008 Primary schedule to 2012 and what emerged is a pretty easy path for Palin. Saner Republicans vote will split Pawlenty and Romney in Iowa But the core votes for her over Huckabee...If he even runs SH winds up with a plurality in Iowa and bypasses New Hampshire

The road to the GOP nomination goes through South Carolina where she suddenly looks to win now that Sanford won't be running. Winger roots, a Southern Strategy and winner-take-all states like California is how it could play out. Romney and Pawlenty figure to split the rest until Super Tuesday, but by that point, Pawlenty is out of money anf it is too late for Romney to recover. SHe wins SOuth Carolina that sets her up for a Southern sweep and if squeaks through in California Romney can't win.

Romney is probably the only one who can take her on, But if he does not win Iowa He may never get close again.

She could easily win the nomination and the saner republicans leave the party in droves. WIthout even competing in the NOrth east or the industrial midwest.

Truth of it is that it is doubtful the GOP will seriously conteend for the WH in 2012 anyway. So there will be some who may just say let her be the sacrificial lamb and vanquish her from the scene forever,

[Why Syzygy]

1. So, you're going to obsess about this for the next three years?

There are much more productive things to do with your mind. Just sayin...

[Perky]

3. I'm just saying that writing her off is lunacy

[Tempest]

10. Writing her off is a safe bet

She might be a force on the conservative speaking circuit, but her political days are behind her.

[Perky]

13. You are not seeing this through the same glasses here base sees her,

[Tempest]

14. Her base is insignificant

In the grand scheme of things.

The moderate and the non-lunatic part of the GOP would never support her.


And I'm seeing this through the glasses of my family, my friends and bloggers all in Alaska. I follow Palin probably closer than anyone outside of Alaska.

[KharmaTrain]

22. Significant Enough In The Primaries...

I don't think anyone with a functioning brain thinks Mooselini has a chance in a general election, but the OP is pointing out the byzantine primary system in the GOOP and how she could run an inside straight...almost the same game plan that helped georgie boooosh jr. in 2000.

The rushpublicans are so fractured no one candidate will have an inside track...Mitten will do well in New Hampshire, Hucklenutz in Iowa and the fracture could allow Bible Spice to slip through in South Carolina and do something similar to what President Obama did...run up 7 or 8 wins in a row in Southern and Western states that could send her to the convention with a fishing boat load of delegates.

She may have 20% of the GOOP base...but a rabid 20% and sure to be the "comeback kid". Primaries are won by either the best organization or the most enthusiastic supporters...by driving so many moderates out of the party, it's the fringes that have a bigger voice than ever.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. She'll be the next Elizabeth Dole.

People will talk about her for years but she won't come close to winning the primary.

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. A lot can happen in 3 1/2 years

Just because she may want it doesn't mean the will GOP want her to carry the torch.

[jazzjunkysue]

16. Alot of stupid can be said in 3 1/2 years. She didn't last through one real interview.

There's not enough Rosetta Stone on this planet for her to grasp even a 5th grade understanding of her own national government, let alone international diplomacy or trade policy.

I say, BRING HER ON!

I can always afford popcorn.:popcorn:

[lob1]

5. She'll never beat the rap of being a quitter.

[Perky]

7. The only people rapping her are Dems and pundits on MSNBC

Her base could care less.

[Tempest]

9. B.S.

You're obviously not reading conservative commentators.

Even Faux News has been criticizing her decision.

[Mojambo]

6. That's the thing. If she hadn't quit she had a tailor made path to the nomination.

Of course she would have been bludgeoned horribly in the general.

[Tempest]

8. How can you say that?

The political landscape for the Republicans will change a lot in the next three years.

Obama came onto the scene in a year, and you're predicting something 3 years out?

[gkhouston]

11. Who cares? She was an anvil for the GOP ticket in 2008 and she's not improving

with exposure. If anything, I hope she runs in 2012. Let the ultra-crazy ultra-right rally to her; she'll scare away moderate Republicans.

[caraher]

12. Amen

Let's HOPE they nominate her!

[Flabbergasted]

15. I don't think she'll survive the debates. The GOP elite really don't like her

and knows she is a dead end. They will do everything in their power to destroy her.

Just my opinion.

[zulchzulu]

17. Palin would get 20% in Iowa and fade out after getting her ass kicked in New Hampshire

Both Huckabee and Romney would pulverize her for being a quitter while Governor in the debates, ads and other efforts. She might get 20% of the Iowa caucus at a maximum. But actually, Iowans can smell a rat... and she would make an ass out of herself enough times where perhaps she would even quit the race before January, 2012. She would get nothing or minimal numbers in New Hampshire and would fade out by South Carolina.

She is a dead fish politically. Not quite rotten, but the small numbers of Jeebus zealots would quickly go for Huckabee if they smell certain defeat.

Romney and Huckabee will probably team up as the 2012 ticket. You heard it here first. And they would lose to Obama by 10% or more in the General.

:hi:

[RagAss]

18. Queen of the Deep South..that's as far as she goes.

[harry_pothead]

19. The fundamentalist whackjobs are the ones who do all the volunteering for the GOP

Having volunteered extensively in the Obama campaign, I've learned that a motivated competent volunteer is worth their weight in gold. Judging by the way things are now, Palin's volunteer base will dwarf that of any of the other GOP candidates for the nomination. She can win handily despite any potential opposition from GOP party leaders.

She will go down in flames in the general election, but that's another story. ;)

[rocktivity]

20. As long as Pawlenty is viable, Romney, a Mormon, hasn't got a chance

and since Pawlenty left his governorship "properly," he should have no trouble disposing of Palin, especially if he can point to what he accomplished during what Palin would define as his "lame duck period." Huckabee can't appeal a large enough base to matter.

Yesterday, Randi Rhodes wondered if Palin is pregnant again. If she's right, than Palin has REALLY cut her own throat.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[grillo7]

21. Her poll numbers are still good with Repigs

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-07-07-palin-poll_N.htm