I know 2012 is ways off - but do you think anything will really change in terms of

[Hawaii Hiker]

the electorate?...

I mean, we'll probably be talking about the same swing states: OH, FL, IA, VA, etc....They'll probably try to still label PA as a swing state, but as one pundit said "PA is more New Jersey than it is Ohio"....

There will be certain states NO Republican can win ie; CA, NY, IL, & about 15 others, & vice versa...

If Obama can keep his approval above 50%, he will win E-A-S-I-L-Y....

[lunatica]

1. You can't find anything to worry about right now?

I think Obama will win in 2012 if he makes some very basic changes affecting the disasters that are in our lives right now. Health care, unemployment, climate change, corporatocracy, the wars, criminal investigations of crimes against humanity, etc.

If he doesn't address these issues enough he deserves to lose, although he probably won't because there isn't a Republican alive who can hold a candle to anyone in the Democratic Party and one isn't going to come along a save them.

[Hawaii Hiker]

5. There's alot to worry about - one thing that would hurt Obama

is if that awful idea (but supposedly Obama is not for it, some senators are though) of taxing employees who have fully paid health premiums thru their employer....That would be the political eqivalent of bringing back the draft...In other words, political suicide...

[saltpoint]

2. Yes. If President Obama seeks a second term, it appears that he's

well-positioned to prevail against any of the Puke nominees.

If Obama's approval ratings remain high, I think it is likely that the Republican nomination will be a lot less worth having.

[Wapsie B]

3. I don't forsee any significant electoral changes that soon.

By the end of Obama's 2nd term however the Southern vote that the gop has counted on for decades will have eroded even more. Reason being is there have been no substantive changes in the way the gop functions. There are no new additions to the gop base. They still crave the fundie vote, the angry neocons are still out there, some as vocal as ever. Even with occasional cries of regional party from a select few in their midst and a phony attempt at inclusion using bimbos like Palin or Jindal there has been no move away from the angry white voter.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. The younger generation doesn't seem that enamored of the Republicans

So, I would think that, absent any spactacularly huge and/or embarrassing scandal or catastrophe that involves Obama and/or his administration, I tend to think he will be re-elected without any substantial problems. It will also depend greatly on who the Repukes put up to run suffice it to say that it will likely be somebody on the fringe rather than somebody more "moderate" who could capture back some of the Republicans and independents whom voted for Obama in 2008 and anybody they ran would still have to have a compelling message (not just, "he's a SOCIALIST!!!!) to win. Right now, I just don't see it happening. The Repukes are not even in a great position for 2010 and are having to seek resources into defending VULNERABLE GOP seats. Lot can change, of course, but that's how I see it right now. :shrug:

[Better Believe It]

6. No .... The Republicans will maintain their control of Congress

[blue_onyx]

7. I think the electorate could change

but it depends on how the next few years go. Here in the midwest, the fallout from the auto industry could effect the 2012 election. MI will probably hit 20% unemployment this year and if unemployment isn't significantly better, MI could be in play (which it wasn't in 2008). Indiana and Ohio could be pushed out of reach as well.

[CrispyQ]

8. The American people have short attention spans.

They also seem willing to give repubs several years to fuck things up & then expect the dems to fix things in one term. I predict that if the economy isn't significantly better in 2012, keeping the White House will be a battle. To those who claim that the repubs have no one to run, let me remind you that 46% of the voting population had no problem with the McCain/Palin ticket.

Bill Maher was right - the dems have gone to the right & the repubs have checked into a mental hospital. I hope Obama pulls this off, because if we have another 4-8 years of repubs in charge, you won't even recognize this country.

[Hawaii Hiker]

10. Yeah, but RARELY is the losing party below 40% in the general election

In 1980, Carter got electorally trounced, be he got 41% of the vote....In 1984, Mondale got electorally trounced, be he got 40% of the vote..

So McCain/Palin getting 46% might sound like alot, but as in the examples above, the Republican ticket in 2008 got electorally trounced...

[salguine]

9. I think if the Democrats don't deliver on health care now,

they'll lose Congress in 2010, and very possibly he White House in 2012. And if they really are this craven and useless on this critical matter at this critical time, I hope they do. Because I've lost patience with selfishness and incompetence.

[JayMusgrove]

11. Can you name some states and districts where a Democrat is

in jeopardy of losing his/her seat in Congress in 2010?

Where is the huge Republican groundswell for Congressional and Senate seats heating up? Maybe one or two?

Democrats losing Congress in 2010 is about as likely as a snowstorm in July in Texas.

[quakerboy]

19. When the HC mandate passes

and a herd of people are suddenly forced to buy overpriced health insurance that doesn't actually allow them to see a Dr, I think there may be a lot of districts where democrats would be in danger of losing their seats.

It hasn't happened yet. And with any luck it won't. But I strongly believe that if it does it changes all the math by the next election

[Abq_Sarah]

24. Don't be so sure about that.

A lot will depend on the jobless rate and inflation.

[Zynx]

26. We statistically can't lose the Senate in 2010 and losing the House is unlikely.

[tranche]

12. If enough DUers work hard enough to defeat him. He could be in trouble.

I've seen a lot of posters promising to work against him. He might have a hard time with the primary. It's Kucinich's to lose.

[rvablue]

16. "It's Kucinich's to lose." !?!?!?!?!??!?!?

:rofl:

Is this naivete or a lame attempt at psyops?

Either way, it was hilarious to read. Pure comedy.

[Freddie Stubbs]

28. Kucinich certainly does know how to lose presidential primaries

[ShadowLiberal]

13. Depends on the economy, and if the GOP adapts, or stays the same

Really what happens with the electorate depends on two main things. The economy, and how the GOP evolves to get themselves out of their current mess they're in.

There's two main issues that are driving the young voters away from the GOP in such large numbers.

1) Gay marriage/gay rights.

2) Global warming/the environment.

On gay marriage the young are much more liberal then the GOP, they see nothing wrong with being gay, a lot of them have friends who are gay. The kind of gay bashing rhetoric the GOP employed in 2004 and 2006 to rally their religious right base really turned off young voters.

Global warming/the environment is another area the young care about. The younger you are the longer you're going to live, and more you'll suffer from pollution & damage to our planet. It's no coincidence that in church power struggles the younger more moderate voices want the churches to focus less on gays and abortion and more on stuff like the environment and caring for the poor.

While it's certainly possible that the GOP will nominate someone who believes in global warming/protecting the environment just like last time (McCain believes in global warming), on the gay marriage issues the GOP battle field is being set up to bring the issue to the front, with gay marriage legal in Iowa (and 2012 being the earliest the GOP can get a gay marriage ban on the ballot) and New Hampshire. That'll hurt the moderate voices on the issue with the base. Any moderate on gay marriage might have to gamble on winning states like New Hampshire and other early states that allow independents to vote.

If the GOP tries to use hatred of gays to their advantage in the general election then it'll blow up in their faces in this time.

In terms of what states might flip in 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana flipped back, the GOP barely competed at all in that state in 2008, hence how Obama managed to win it. North Carolina may be vulnerable to flipping as well if the environment is good enough for the GOP, there are favorable demographic trends for us there, but it might not be enough if the economy hasn't recovered enough yet.

Obama's people have said they expect to be able to flip Montana, and possibly the dakotas as well in 2012 assuming the economy recovers by then. And lets not forget Arizona, without a home stater on the ticket in 2012, and with all of the favorable demographic trends there we should be able to win it. We probably would have won it in 2008 without McCain on the ticket for the GOP.

[Hawaii Hiker]

18. Well, GOP consultant Mike Murphy, one of the few sane GOP strategists said

that the GOP party needs to become more social liberterian & far less of that rigid overly invasive bible-thumping that they are now...

I'm so anti-Republican I'd never vote for one anyway, & a large part of that is because of how much disdain I have for social conservatives...

But the issues of today are far too important to be focusing on gay marriage, Hollywood entertainment, abortion, etc....I really don't think social issues are going to play much of a role, certainly not in the next election...Maybe for much longer than that...

[Clio the Leo]

14. Two things have to happen....

... the GOP REALLY has to come up with something good (and they might want to get on the stick about that.)

And Barack Obama has to become a totally different person. Even those who may not like his policies like him .... they like his cool demeanor ... and the kid can talk his way out of a corner.

The first thing is not likely, and the second thing is impossible.

[Dr Fate]

15. It's not way off at all- it will be here before we know it. n/t

n/t

[BlooInBloo]

17. Prediction: A lot of the zomgexcitement won't be there, but Obama will still win easily.

[quakerboy]

20. Will he still have

majorities in the house and senate who hypothetically back him though?

[BlooInBloo]

21. Prediction: yes, easily.

[quakerboy]

22. Really?

I think it depends on a lot of things. The other Democrats, by and large, are not so charismatic as Obama. And I think that health care may sink them further. A mandate sure looks like political suicide to me. Obama is popular and intelligent enough to do his Teflon thing, but I have my doubts that enough Senators and Congresscritters can.

[BlooInBloo]

23. (shrug) I tried to clearly type the word "prediction". Apologies if I missed it.

[quakerboy]

25. No worries

I'm just curious as to the thinking behind the prediction. Do you just think people are fed up with the R's, or is it just Obama's popularity, or whats the reasoning?

[Awsi Dooger]

27. 2008 was like a 2-for-1

Incumbents with their party in power for only one term simply do not lose. Well, Carter in 1980. So if Obama mirrors that type of approval and economy, he's in jeopardy.

I like our chances. And by the time 2016 rolls around, the percentage of white voters will have shrunk to about 71% of the electorate, meaning we own the margin for error.

Indiana and North Carolina were lucky pickups in 2008. Those states have high percentages of self-identified conservatives so it required a perfect storm of a pro-Democratic cycle, blase GOP ticket and popular Democratic nominee to (barely) carry them. Republicans will work to fortify those states but there's very little they can do in terms of the very real demographic shifts in the southwestern states plus places like Colorado and Virginia.

[styersc]

29. I will support any liberal who runs against Obama in 2012.

I hope that we have a true progressive running from the Democratic party, but if we don't, I'll have to switch to Green or elsewhere.

I won't be fooled again.

[zulchzulu]

30. Consider who will run as Republicans in 2012

Newt! :rofl:
Sarah :rofl:
Mitt :rofl:
Huckabee :rofl:

Then you get the ones that will barely make it past Iowa... Spence, Cantor...

They have a lousy bench to work with and they will take each other apart in the primary season. Short of some dark horse candidate, they will be lucky to get 25% in the presidential election... as a GOP friend of mine who is part of the GOP Bat Cave, they are "deep in the woods"...

That said, no time to get comfortable. We all have a lot of work to do.

[Soylent Brice]

31. i thought this was going to be an apocalypse thread.

:(