I predict that if President Obama does not sign a real Public Option

[rateyes]

for Health Care into law--one that everyone has the option of purchasing that makes healthcare affordable, where every American is covered, he will not be re-elected.

The base will abandon him if he does not veto any reform bill that isn't universal and affordable.

[Kermitt Gribble]

1. I'd say that's a pretty good prediction. n/t

[bvar22]

30. I won't be "abandoning" Obama......

He will have abandoned me.
I will wisely look elsewhere for representation.

[Kermitt Gribble]

45. Exactly. Like another poster here said,

The Democratic Party has become the old republican party - for the most part, anyway. We need a Progressive Party now more than ever.

[Hieronymus]

40. I agree .. he has said it would be done repeatedly. He won't be reelected..

without it.

[Kermitt Gribble]

46. IMO, the 2 hallmarks

of the Obama Presidency will be health care reform and the economy. Both will have an effect on every person in the country. Since the economy can be somewhat of a wildcard issue, and the people he has advising him on it seem to want to maintain the staus quo, he needs to get healthcare reform right.

[avaistheone1]

63. With no real jobs are industries created here in the U.S. - the least Congress can do

is throw the American people a safety net with single payer health care.

Otherwise the Democrats will definitely are going to lose alot of their power.

[tekisui]

2. I won't go that far. He will suffer a big hit and any future agenda will

stall. I stand by the prediction that as long as job numbers and the economy are better in 2012 than they are today, he will sail into a second term.

I think Obama knows this, too. He doesn't feel any pressure to do anything other than keep the economy recovering.

[zipplewrath]

13. Close

I do think he lives and dies by the economy. It might be inescapable though that he is right and that if he doesn't get the "right" health care reform accomplished, his economic policies will suffer. I also think that if the Afghan war stretches out too long, the fiscal effects will undermine virtually everything, including attempts to revive the economy.

[quiller4]

39. I wouldn't abandoned Obama. Health care is important to me

but it doesn't make my top ten list.

[newspeak]

43. yeah, you apparently have good insurance at work

young or in great health. Health insurance is on my top ten, especially since by hubby lost his health insurance and has something on his back that doesn't look good and he won't go to the doctor because we can't afford it. He was in a managerial position with benefits approximately two and a half years ago, down to making about 15.00 an hr with no benefits. The company let go of most managers in their fifties. Which is really ironic because the CEO was in another area bragging about my hubby's area and how that's how they want the other areas run, and instead of giving him a pat on the back, they let him go. Everyone within the organization was shocked!!!

[Cleita]

58. It will when you find yourself with a watered down policy and a big

expensive disease in your family facing you.

[susanr516]

64. Wait until you develop a chronic illness

Or get laid off and see how much that insurance is gonna cost you, even with COBRA.

[Hieronymus]

41. The economy has been tied directly to a healthcare plan.

[eleny]

3. I predict that he'll be re-elected because the Republicans will revolt us even more

[Ganja Ninja]

12. I'm not voting for Democrats simply to keep the Republicans out of office.

I'll vote third party when there's a choice and if there isn't a choice I'll leave it blank.

[eleny]

17. I've seen what third parties have done to the Republicans in the past

I won't go that route and give up what we've fought for so far. Political suicide isn't my thing.

[tranche]

27. Awesome. It took 5 months to forget Bush.

Gore sucked too.

[mkultra]

28. then your a fool.

[ima_sinnic]

32. count me as a "fool" too, b/c democrats, republicans, what's the difference?

states secrets, no accountability for treason/torture/war crimes, insurance company & Wall St. ass-kissing, empire building and mass murder in the Middle East, "pre-emptive" detention (read: legalized kidnapping), warrantless wiretapping, profits over people in all aspects of life. I won't be voting for "democrats" either, if that's the best they can do.

[mkultra]

36. yup, your a fool too.

[Jennicut]

67. There is a difference or would Gore have been as destructive as Bush?

That argument did not pan out, sorry.

[Dawgs]

50. Right, because Bush compared to what we could have had with Gore wasn't SO BAD.

Are you nuts?

[rockymountaindem]

4. I think it's totally possible

That, and the fact that people have little patience with the economy (and I don't blame them). However, I still think that Obama's chances for reelection are very strong no matter what happens because the Republican party is in total disarray.

[ZombieHorde]

5. Maybe, but I know I plan on waiting a few years in order to weigh

his accomplishments or failures which I support against his accomplishments or failures which I do not support.

[MercutioATC]

6. I'm not as worried about the base abandoning him as I am about insurrection.

It'll start with the bankrupt states challenging federal laws and trickle down to individuals openly advocating (and committing) legal transgressions.

If this turns into another transfer of money from the poor and middle class to corporations...especially in the middle of a severe recession...things are going to get real squirrelly real fast.

[rateyes]

15. When the day comes that mothers can't feed their babies, that

will be the day the insurrection begins.

[tranche]

7. I predict after him losing - a river of tears from washed up boomer activists after Palin is elected

[eleny]

18. Well said!

[ima_sinnic]

33. no, I won't cry--I'll laugh at the assholes who took my vote for granted (nt)

[sandnsea]

8. If there are generous subsidies

for private insurance, he'll be fine. But if they stick with this 15% of income that I read about in Daschle's plan, this will be a nightmare, especially if it's mandated.

[WinkyDink]

69. IOW, more profits for the insurance industry. And that equals health-CARE, how?

[LoZoccolo]

9. Cool story, bro. n/t

[Old Codger]

10. I agree

BUT , it will be more than that that sinks him,so far he has not really done much more that lip service to a lot of his promises,he has actually endorsed as many or more of * practices than not he is good at "speechifying" as Mark Twain called it but that seems to pretty much sum up a good part of his "accomplishments"...IMHO he is what they call in Texas "all hat and no cattle" .. having said that I do believe he has the chance still to carry out what he claimed his agenda is, but it is gonna get harder and harder if he cannot pull off a decent health care overhaul that actually does more than a little "feel good" stuff.He has hung a lot on health care and seems to be losing the battle. Maybe he has something up his sleeve that will pull it off , remains to be seen. Personally if I had to decide today and he was running against anything the repugs have to offer he would win again, but if a decent Dem. opponent came out of the wings and challenged him he might run into some stiff competition.

[quantass]

11. K&R

[Sebastian Doyle]

14. It's definitely the dealbreaker for me.

I would not vote for Hillary because of her mandatory corporate insurance Romneycare rehash plan. I will not vote for Obama again, if he enables the same shit. Or support anyone else who would vote for such a fucking criminal travesty.

[OHdem10]

16. It is beginning to look as if Obama is alienting his base. GWB

over pandered to his base.

Neither is a good winning policy.

[redqueen]

19. I agree. If the Dems don't deliver a STRONG public option, they deserve to lose.

[depakid]

20. It would certainly be a big step in that direction

[Bluenorthwest]

21. Not just the President

But every last elected Democrat in any office anywhere will have to be unmercifully replaced. No matter about local affections, or the fact that mine is a 'good one', no. Clean house. Show them all the door, and get a new crop. If they fail, they pack and get the hell out of town too. This way to the egress. Mind the gap, way out, exit, and don't write if you get work.
Congress is the problem here. Obama wants to take on their level of popularity, that is his choice.
But the election that needs to send a message is 2010. Primary challenges to all of them. No money to any incumbent, money for all Democratic challengers.

[redqueen]

22. IMO most of the blame lies with Dems in Congress.

Overwhelming public support for a public option... they have no reason other than greed to bettray us yet again.

[bvar22]

31. There ARE 93 Co-Sposors for HR676 in The House.

HR676 is Medicare for All...TRUE Single Payer HealthCare.
These Dems SHOULD be supported.
They ARE representing YOU, and NOT Corporate profits.


Rep Abercrombie, Neil - 1/24/2007
Rep Baca, Joe - 9/17/2007
Rep Baldwin, Tammy - 1/24/2007
Rep Becerra, Xavier - 6/13/2007
Rep Berman, Howard L. - 6/15/2007
Rep Bishop, Sanford D., Jr. - 12/11/2007
Rep Brady, Robert A. - 2/27/2007
Rep Brown, Corrine - 4/17/2007
Rep Capuano, Michael E. - 11/9/2007
Rep Carson, Andre - 7/10/2008
Rep Carson, Julia - 1/24/2007
Rep Christensen, Donna M. - 1/24/2007
Rep Clarke, Yvette D. - 2/16/2007
Rep Clay, Wm. Lacy - 1/24/2007
Rep Cleaver, Emanuel - 4/22/2008
Rep Clyburn, James E. - 4/24/2008
Rep Cohen, Steve - 2/7/2007
Rep Cummings, Elijah E. - 1/24/2007
Rep Davis, Danny K. - 1/24/2007
Rep Delahunt, William D. - 2/12/2007
Rep Doyle, Michael F. - 3/21/2007
Rep Edwards, Donna F. - 9/29/2008
Rep Ellison, Keith - 1/24/2007
Rep Engel, Eliot L. - 1/24/2007
Rep Farr, Sam - 1/24/2007
Rep Fattah, Chaka - 1/24/2007
Rep Filner, Bob - 1/24/2007
Rep Frank, Barney - 3/7/2007
Rep Green, Al - 1/24/2007
Rep Grijalva, Raul M. - 1/24/2007
Rep Gutierrez, Luis V. - 1/24/2007
Rep Hare, Phil - 4/30/2007
Rep Hastings, Alcee L. - 1/29/2007
Rep Hinchey, Maurice D. - 1/24/2007
Rep Hirono, Mazie K. - 7/23/2007
Rep Holt, Rush D. - 9/18/2008
Rep Honda, Michael M. - 1/24/2007
Rep Jackson, Jesse L., Jr. - 1/24/2007
Rep Jackson-Lee, Sheila - 1/24/2007
Rep Jefferson, William J. - 6/26/2007
Rep Johnson, Eddie Bernice - 1/24/2007
Rep Johnson, Henry C. "Hank," Jr. - 2/13/2007
Rep Jones, Stephanie Tubbs - 5/23/2007
Rep Kaptur, Marcy - 2/12/2007
Rep Kennedy, Patrick J. - 9/24/2007
Rep Kildee, Dale E. - 4/17/2007
Rep Kilpatrick, Carolyn C. - 1/24/2007
Rep Kucinich, Dennis J. - 1/24/2007
Rep Lantos, Tom - 10/1/2007
Rep Lee, Barbara - 1/24/2007
Rep Lewis, John - 1/24/2007
Rep Loebsack, David - 1/24/2007
Rep Lynch, Stephen F. - 10/9/2007
Rep Maloney, Carolyn B. - 1/29/2007
Rep McDermott, Jim - 1/24/2007
Rep McGovern, James P. - 1/24/2007
Rep McNulty, Michael R. - 1/24/2007
Rep Meehan, Martin T. - 1/24/2007
Rep Meeks, Gregory W. - 9/20/2007
Rep Miller, George - 1/24/2007
Rep Moore, Gwen - 1/24/2007
Rep Moran, James P. - 1/22/2008
Rep Nadler, Jerrold - 1/29/2007
Rep Napolitano, Grace F. - 2/27/2007
Rep Norton, Eleanor Holmes - 3/21/2007
Rep Olver, John W. - 2/16/2007
Rep Pastor, Ed - 1/24/2007
Rep Payne, Donald M. - 1/24/2007
Rep Rangel, Charles B. - 1/24/2007
Rep Richardson, Laura - 9/20/2007
Rep Roybal-Allard, Lucille - 1/24/2007
Rep Rush, Bobby L. - 2/6/2007
Rep Ryan, Tim - 5/8/2007
Rep Sanchez, Linda T. - 4/23/2007
Rep Sanchez, Loretta - 9/20/2007
Rep Schakowsky, Janice D. - 4/17/2007
Rep Scott, David - 9/20/2007
Rep Scott, Robert C. "Bobby" - 1/24/2007
Rep Serrano, Jose E. - 2/7/2007
Rep Solis, Hilda L. - 2/12/2007
Rep Sutton, Betty - 3/27/2007
Rep Thompson, Bennie G. - 6/12/2007
Rep Tierney, John F. - 9/6/2007
Rep Towns, Edolphus - 1/24/2007
Rep Udall, Tom - 2/27/2007
Rep Waters, Maxine - 1/29/2007
Rep Watson, Diane E. - 1/24/2007
Rep Weiner, Anthony D. - 1/24/2007
Rep Welch, Peter - 5/3/2007
Rep Wexler, Robert - 1/24/2007
Rep Woolsey, Lynn C. - 1/24/2007
Rep Wynn, Albert Russell - 1/24/2007
Rep Yarmuth, John A. - 2/27/2007

[shimmergal]

47. That's too much of a broad brush!

Who's going to pay for about 460 primary challenges? Sorry to remind you, but that's just not practical.

We need to target Dem Senators in particular who don't support a public option. Look at who's up for re-election in 2010, and let them know--ahead of a health care vote -- that it's a dealbreaker.
Heck, if each DU member gave $5 (yes, I know not everyone can afford it, but some could and would give more) we'd have enough for a pretty good war chest and could support a truly progressive primary challenger in at least 2 or 3 states.

And support those Senators who've already come out in strong support of public option. With letters and e-mails, if nothing else!

The House maybe too, but it looks like there are enough Reps. -- and Pelosi has enough party discipline -- that it should pass the House OK, if uncertainty about Senate reaction doesn't mess that up.

[Hawkowl]

23. He's got nothing else

No end to the wars. No end to insanely bloated WAR budgets. No prosecutions for torture or war crimes. Plenty of releasing convicted rethuglican politicians from jail but fuck Siegleman. Plenty of support for DOMA and DADT. No fucking clue as to what to do with the economy except shower money on the banks that destroyed it and give them complete control of the destruction via their puppets Geithner and Summers. Throw in unemployment peaking at about 15% next year.

So yeah, if Obama can't deliver on at least health care, he will not be re-elected. I doubt he will even be able to win the primary. This whole administration is starting to parallel Jimmy Carter's (I love Carter but he was ineffective) and I would expect if Obama can't get health care done properly he is toast. As are we all.

[marshall]

24. do you think he'll be knocked out in the primary?

Cause if he's not going to win I'd want Hillary Clinton (or any other suitable Democrat) as the nominee.

[tranche]

26. You're kidding right?

He's following Clinton and "suitable Democrat" policies. This is our Democratic party. It's just an Obama thing.

[mkultra]

38. i doubt it, even if the dem fringe bashes obama 24/7 he will still win the primary

do to the fact that he has a huge centrist draw in a general. There is no way the supers would let someone supplant an incumbent.

[quakerboy]

62. Not without results he doesn't.

Centrists will be the quickest to jump ship in a general. The base may try someone else for the primary, but we are pretty well stuck with the Democratic nominee in the general. The independents are not, and if they feel the screw on the health care deal, they won't hesitate to jump to someone else.

[BzaDem]

25. I doubt it.

Unless Obama becomes more to the right of the Republican nominee, people will vote for him. Most voters now were voters during 2000, and most people learn their lessons.

If I am wrong, then we will indeed have a Republican president, and these people will learn their lessons all over again. If they think Obama is a republican-lite, wait until they see what another real republican can do. They will come flocking back to nominee Ben Nelson after 4 years of a real Republican.

[Clio the Leo]

29. I read this OP on my lunch break....

... and then went around and asked my co-workers ... average citizens of diverse descriptions .... if a health care plan that did not provide a public option would cause them to vote against Obama in 2012.

Only ONE of them knew what that meant .... and most, even after I explained it .... seemed to care.

[rateyes]

35. I bet they all have health care. They don't sound like part of the base. nt

[truedelphi]

34. What you are saying would be true, except how do we know that

The same people that handed Bush his Presidency in 2004 won't hand Obama his "victory" in 2012?

[mkultra]

37. id say your wrong

for every unreasonable person in the democratic party, there are 10 reasonable people.

[vaberella]

42. I thought the base was already abandoning him based on the way DU is going.

Why wait for health care?

[geek tragedy]

44. Obama Derangement Syndrome in the Nutroots

If Congress doesn't pass a public option despite strong lobbying from Obama, the whiny ass purists will choose to declare him the bad guy, because they care more about drama than policy.

[Umbral]

51. If he signs it, he owns it. nt

[cali]

48. Agreed. And I'll be one of the base that deserts- at least in the primary

I'll probably vote for him in the general- but it'd be a hold-your-nose kind of vote.

[geek tragedy]

55. You want him to veto health care reform legislation

that has significant benefits to the uninsured?

You're hanging around the nutjobs at DU too much.

[Vinca]

49. Then he should be thorough enough to draw up a list of the people

he intends to let die. Everyone needs health care, not just people carrying sacks of gold to big insurance.

[treestar]

52. It's overdramatic to put it all on one issue.

[solstice]

53. If that happens, I won't vote for him again and I wrote to him and told him so. Also wrote my

Senators that if they didn't vote for it, they could forget my vote next time (both are dems).

[Hamlette]

54. where will his base go? Third party? Dennis? The GOP?

I don't think some kind of health care reform is as much a "liberal" idea as it was when Clinton took office. My guess is independents want it too.

When FDR took office in 1932 he had 3 goals: unemployment insurance, social security and universal health care. He tried for years to get that last one and never was able. (The first two were astonishing accomplishments given the law at the time.)

I don't think it is Obama who is blocking single payer, its the blue dogs. Some of them come from purple districts where many ppl are like the cartoon yesterday "I don't want to pay more taxes just so you don't die." They can't sell it at home and are afraid of losing their districts to a republican in 2010. Many in the party are worried about that. (I'm from a district in Utah with the reddest of blue dog dems as my representative. He drives me crazy, seldom votes the way I think he should, but if he lost it would be to a republican, not another dem. At least my blue dog dem votes for democratic leadership in the house.)

[EndElectoral]

56. Without Single Payer I think he'll have a hard time with a lot of folks.

[Jennicut]

66. Not really. He won the primaries without it. Public option is not single payer.

He does need to have a strong public option component in it. I doubt he would pass a bill without it. It would be bad politically, why do that if you want to get reelected?

[Cleita]

57. I agree. He thinks he has to pander to the right because a lot of moderate

Republicans voted for him, however, this time they will be voting on whether their lives have improved while he was in office. If they can't see that, they won't vote for him for a second term. The Republican hot shots will try to derail him like they did Jimmy Carter and if Obama doesn't have a record to stand on, he won't have enough votes. I wish he'd stop reading about Lincoln, who was assassinated in office and start reading about FDR, who was elected to three terms, because he shifted far to the left and also died in office, but of natural causes.

[undeterred]

59. If I don't have access to health insurance in 2012 I'm not voting for Obama.

[rocktivity]

60. Which is exactly why I believe he'll do it.

Even if he is in the exact same kind of bubble Georgie was in, Obama is intelligent enough to realize that any health care reform that retains a profit motive is a waste of time--and possibly of more lives. The real question is whether he has the strength to place improving the health and welfare of all Americans over improving the profitability of some.


rocknation

[Celeborn Skywalker]

61. Probably a good chance of that.

Especially if the wars aren't wrapped up yet.

[TomCADem]

65. I Thought President Obama Has Strongly Endorsed A Public Option?

So, why are folks threatening to abandon him based on his lack of support for a public option or demanding that he VETO healthcare reform.

I can understand abandoning any conservadem Senator who sells out his base, but President Obama has been very vocal in his support of a public option, so I am not sure why we are pushing for people to abandon President Obama on an issue that he agrees with us on.

My take is that if we don't support him now by demonstrating in support of a public option, than we get what we deserve. Heck, the teabaggers demonstrate in support of complete non-sense. We should be able to pull together a demonstration in support of a public option.

[WinkyDink]

68. I agree. This is THE issue for, by, and of the people. Mandatory payments to insurance companies

are so far off the mark, even as a just topic under discussion by ANY Democrat, I'm stunned.