Is Gallup still oversampling Repubs.?

[jenmito]

A couple weeks ago, Gallup came up with that poll cited by EVERYONE in the media that "for the first time, more people consider themselves pro-life than pro-choice" (51%-42%) http://www.gallup.com/search/default.aspx?q=pro-life&s=&b=SEARCH and then they put out a poll claiming Cheney has a higher approval rating than Pelosi (37% vs. 34%) http://www.gallup.com/poll/120761/Cheney-Pelosi-Poor-Ratings-Common.aspx and today they have Obama's approval at 59% and his disapproval at 34%. http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

We know Gallup polled 32% Repubs. and 32% Dems. to get the "pro-life" vs. "pro-choice" results but we don't have the make-up for the other results. I have a feeling he's sticking with the 32%-32% sampling. I don't see any other explanation for these poll numbers.

[AlexanderProgressive]

1. The problem is..how do we know the proportion of Republican to Democrat?

If Republicans ever catch up with the Democrats in party ID, when will we know and how?

[jenmito]

3. According to Gallup itself party ID is 35% Dems. and 28% Repubs.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/118084/Democrats-Maintain-Seven-Point-Advantage-Party.aspx

[AlexanderProgressive]

4. That poll is old

It's an average of all polls conducted from January through March, and we're in June.

[jenmito]

7. They don't have any updated one showing ID equal between Dems. and Repubs. n/t

[MADem]

2. I'm pro-life--I don't care for the death penalty. I'm also pro-choice.

It's not my business what a woman does with her body.

They've always been a smidge to the right of Attila the Hun.

[jenmito]

6. I'm sure lots of people feel the same way...

I'm using THEIR interpretation of "pro-life" for this poll result.

[Thrill]

5. Not sure. But I expect his ratings to go down with the rising gas prices

He's going to need to at least attempt to do something about it

[LiberalFighter]

18. Gas prices shouldn't be factor yet in the polls.

I say it has to reach $3.00 at least possibly as high as $3.35 before they start thinking of it.

And of course the media will make the price of gas a story more and more.

[Jennicut]

8. Hey Jen, Hotline/Diageo has Obama at 65% approval, Rasmussen is at 57.

I am guessing about 59 to 60 seems about right. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[jenmito]

10. Thanks for the link...

but Rasmussen shouldn't even count as a serious pollster. He's always on Faux and I noticed he has an article on his site by Dick Morris. If they have him at 57% he's probably atoub 8 points higher than that.

[Jennicut]

15. LOL. True. I think Hotline seems accurate, Gallup is okay

as long as they do not oversample Rethugs. I really just see normal fluctuations. I think it will be back up by weeks end.

[Clio the Leo]

9. I fully expected the Cairo speech to peel off some moderates...

.... in favor of the "disapprove" column.

But it was worth it.

[jenmito]

11. Isn't it sad...

that he loses support for being so well received overseas?

[Clio the Leo]

12. Yes, but predictable....

..... fear is a very powerful thing.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I think in the short term it might've hurt.

But in the long term it'll bolster his ratings. Especially if Iran goes and dumps Ahmadinejad.

[Clio the Leo]

16. Oh definately......

... if the situation in the middle east improves, as it's already doing, then he'll def. get a lot of the credit.

It's pretty clear that some kind of Camp David style accord is a major goal of his presidency. He probably fantasizes about standing inbetween world leaders all Carter style.....

[bdamomma]

21. isn't Iran voting tomorrow, this should be interesting

those young people out in Iran want him out!! I hope they succeed.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I think his ratings will fluctuate from high 50s to mid-60s.

[SoCalDem]

17. If they sample more than 21%, yes.. n/t

[jenmito]

20. They sampled 32% Rs and 32% Ds. Here's an article about it:

"The latest Gallup (5/7-10/09) poll has party identification tied at 32-32 and caused an immediate howl of "outlier!" in the comments at Pollster.com. In this case, the howl is justified. Compared to all recent Gallup polls (so we compare apples to apples) this latest stands out quite a bit from the rest."

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_gallup_has_pid_tied_yep_it.php

[Politics_Guy25]

23. Good news Jemmito

Gallup shows his approval rating back up above 60% today. Maybe they got rid of their outragoeus 32-32 partisan sample? Anyway, with the Hotline poll showing the president at 65%, I'm not too worried. Even Rasmussen has him surging in recent days. Gallup might have been showing the dip that Rasmussen showed a week ago, a delayed response perhaps? This sometimes happens in reverse with Rasmussen having to catch up to Gallup.

Anyway, any president with approval ratings over 45% is likely to get re-elected anyway. Anything over 45% is bonus and we are way above that right now. XD. Also look at the fundamentals. The economy is improving, the GOP is in disarray, etc.

I have to admit that like you I was not pleased and concerned with yesterday's 59% number.

[jenmito]

24. Thanks...

I saw that he's up to 60% approval and down to 33% disapproval. I check every day-I can't help myself.

Rasmussen is definitely an outlier. MSNBC refuses to use it, calling it a "Republican poll." Rasmussen is always on Faux and there's a reason for that-he's a Repub. pollster even if he calls himself an "Independent."

Thanks for the post. :hi:

[SoCalDem]

26. That's what's misleading, though. They create the perception

that republicans and democrats are on a par with each other, when the obvious truth is that we are NOT.
republican "opinion" is OVERstated in the media. They are an extreme, fringe party, chock-full of haters, whiners and contrarians, and our media portrays them as being the "rightful rulers, suddenly deposed", and laments, daily, their fate. Hour after hour is devoted to "what went wrong?", "how will they regain power?", "who is their leader?", "what do THEY think of Obama's policies", "how will they oppose him?", etc. NONE of this type of attention was paid to democrats when WE were out of power. All we heard then, was that "we deserved to be out of power", and how "the adults were in charge"..:grr:

[jenmito]

27. I know. The article points that out. Too bad nobody in the media

has picked up on THAT like they pick up every Republico article. :eyes:

[Dawgs]

19. If he's anywhere close to 60% with this poor economy and two wars then he's doing a great job.

Just imagine what it will be like when the economy is thriving, gas prices are low, universal health-care is passed, and he's ended the wars.

[Robbins]

22. Gallup

They are not as bad as RAS.They calim the public trusts Republicans on most Issues more including the Economy and Ethics,adn claim
45 percent want to cancle the rest of the Stimulas.This causes me to totally disregard RAS untill further notice.

[jenmito]

25. I agree...

Rasmussen is a Repub. who's always on Faux giving his "analysis."