***NY-20 Election Results - OFFICIAL THREAD***

[jefferson_dem]

Go Murphy!

Results here:
- http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

- http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results


Twitter Aggregator here:

- http://politicalwire.com/aggregator/twitter.html

[FLAprogressive]

1. y'all cheer on your little blue dog (puppy). He'll probably be as worthless as tits on a nun.

boy I'm excited (not).

Call me when people here learn the difference between a good Dem and a bad Dem.

[ccharles000]

5. How do you know he is a blue dog?

[mvd]

7. Repuke district, though (n/t)

[Occam Bandage]

10. It's a strongly R district. A "good Dem" would get creamed. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Could? Most likely would get creamed.

That's like the Maine GOP running a far-right reactionist Republican for Collins' senate seat and bitching that they didn't win.

[Occam Bandage]

158. I said would. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Yes. Let's run a far-left Dem in a district that generally votes Republican.

Good idea!

[Danger Mouse]

26. Maybe you should learn a thing or two about NY-20 before shitting on the thread.

[Barack_America]

38. Well, "good Dems" don't tend to make sexist comments such as "worthless as tits on a nun".

:eyes:

[Adelante]

42. You forgot to say GD:DLC

You're slipping.

[FLAprogressive]

53. as I can see -- the usual excuses come out.

"It's a Republican district.", et al.

John Hall, a progressive, won in a republican district in NY.

[Danger Mouse]

63. You don't live in NY-20.

It's been deep red for a long time.
Baby steps.

[FLAprogressive]

68. I just don't understand why a candidate HAS to be a pro-corporate Blue Dog to win

I don't care if he's pro-gun. Hell, *I* am pro-gun. The problem for me is that there are very few pro-gun progressives in office (Peter DeFazio, Peter Welch, Russ Feingold, and Bernie Sanders are about it)....the rest of pro-gun "Dems" are racist, homophobic, pro-corporate Blue Dog scum.

But are the voters there THAT pro-corporate to where a candidate must follow the corporate line lest he be voted out?

[Danger Mouse]

78. This district pretty much sucks.

:shrug:

[Runcible Spoon]

132. It's my district and I agree with everything you've said

If anyone ran with a campaign to boost family farms and not touch the guns, they would win IMHO. People forget just how impoverished most of this district is...my county is the poorest in all of NY. Of course, we have fucking Saratoga cash machines to fund the Blue Dogs and repukes alike. :evilfrown:

[SoxFan]

249. Go pound sand

[Kdillard]

2. I am nervous. Go Murphy sending good vibes.

[Thrill]

3. Any exit polls?

[jefferson_dem]

4. Tedisco up 52/48 now, w/ 168/610 precincts reporting.

n/t

[Kdillard]

8. Well it is good that it is this close early.

Hope he pulls through in a squeaker.

[snowbear]

9. 1,308 vote lead.. right?

.
.

Go Murphy!!

[Nite Owl]

6. Capital News 9

Tedisco 50%
Murphy 49%

[snowbear]

14. 2,315 difference..

.
.

[Lavender Brown]

12. Vote Results by County

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results

Murphy up in Warren, Tedisco in Saratoga... no big surprise.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Murphy takes 200 vote lead! W/ 280/610 in.

:woohoo:

[snowbear]

16. WOW !!!!!!!!!!

.
.

Keep it going in that direction Murphy !!! ~~~

[Lavender Brown]

17. The TU now has Tedisco with 2000 vote lead.

:argh:

http://www.timesunion.com/

[snowbear]

19. Seriously?

.
.

WTF is going on there?

[Lavender Brown]

23. Not a lot of votes in yet. I added the link.

[jefferson_dem]

24. I guess it depends on whichever site you look at.

Tedisco is now up by 800 votes w/ 312/610 in.

This suckers going down to the wire.

[Lavender Brown]

30. Still getting robocalls this evening.

:grr:

[Kdillard]

15. Yes he pulled even it is 50/50 Now for Murphy to pull ahead..

[MiniMe]

18. Still 52-48 Tedisco with 206/610 precincts reporting

[MiniMe]

20. Whoa, I refreshed, and the time stamp is 3 minutes later and it is 50-50

with 280/610 precincts counted.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Now 51-49 in favor of the Repub.

[mgcgulfcoast]

34. what are the numbers?

[Drunken Irishman]

37. Now it's 46,645 for Murphy and 46,969 for Tedisco.

[mgcgulfcoast]

39. thanks

do the remaining districts lean for murphy?

[Drunken Irishman]

45. Hard to tell...

Columbia looks to be going heavily toward Murphy and only 20 of 58 are in.

Delaware is breaking slightly toward Tedisco and it's at 25/49 right now.

Dutchess is almost up and Murphy holds a slight lead there.

Essex is almost, as well, and Murphy's lead is slight.

Greene is almost up and Tedisco is doing well there.

Otsego is essentially done and Murphy lost that 48/52.

Rensselaer is about halfway done and Tedisco holds a 52/48 lead.

Saratoga is still quite aways from being done and Tedisco is dominating 56-44.

Warren is done and Murphy won.

Washington is almost done and Murphy is winning that district.

If I had to guess, Murphy loses. The largest precinct is Saratoga and with Murphy's precincts almost up, I don't see how he overcomes that. But we'll see.

[Nite Owl]

66. Murphy lives in Warren Cty

he has a huge family that could win the county all by themselves!

[Drunken Irishman]

67. You know those Irish. ;)

[Danger Mouse]

22. Good luck to him.

[Tiggeroshii]

25. who are they replacing?

dem or repug?

[Danger Mouse]

27. Gillibrand

[Lavender Brown]

28. Dem. Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed Senator

[Kdillard]

29. They are replacing a Dem who took it away from Republican control.

[jefferson_dem]

32. This is to fill Kirsten Gillibrand's seat, who was appointed to Hillary's Senate seat.

The district has 70,000 more Repug registrants, went for Bush twice but Obama won it by 3%.

[onehandle]

33. Gillibrand. Hillary's replacement. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

35. Hm, the one thing that concerns me is the fact the largest precinct is going heavily for Tedisco.

And it's still got a lot of votes out there.

[Kdillard]

41. Yeah well not surprising but hopefully Murphy will pull it out in the end.

[jefferson_dem]

36. Tedisco up by 300 votes w/ 386/610 reporting.

:scared:

[Drunken Irishman]

40. .

[snowbear]

43. Not according to that Saratogian site.. Has the thug up now by 1,000..

.
.

I must be looking at the wrong link? ..

[Lavender Brown]

44. It's not you.

Every news outlet has a wildly different total. ;) My local tv news just had Murphy up by about 500. Who knows?

[mvd]

47. Hope your news is right!

Do the later precincts favor Murphy, I wonder?

[Drunken Irishman]

58. This is insane. How can you have so many different totals out there!?!

[Drunken Irishman]

46. No, read the numbers wrong.

[lolamio]

48. This is a real nail biter. I just want Tedisco's smug face off of my television. n/t

[Nite Owl]

49. 51-49

Murphy up

[Drunken Irishman]

52. I don't know where you're reading that. Tedisco has about a 1,000 vote lead.

[Danger Mouse]

56. Times union has murphy up 2%

[Drunken Irishman]

61. Which one is right?

The AP still has him down, albeit by less than he was before.

[Danger Mouse]

64. The AP is shit.

[Drunken Irishman]

71. Unfortunately, I think the numbers quoted by the poster are older than the AP's.

It seems that site where Murphy was leading has updated to the AP numbers and it's 50-50.

[Nite Owl]

69. Here

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results

[Drunken Irishman]

75. Yeah, they were lagging behind the AP.

It was 51/49 at one point, but Tedisco has taken the lead and looks like he'll win this.

[Drunken Irishman]

50. Murphy is going to lose.

I don't see how he can win this, since all the precincts he's doing well in are pretty much counted, while the largest, Saratoga, has aways to go and Tedisco is kicking his butt there.

[mgcgulfcoast]

55. you are too pessimistic

[Thrill]

60. The best Gillibrand counties are Rensselaer and Columbia and still a lot of precincts to count

there

[Lavender Brown]

62. Yeah, unless there was big college kid turnout in Saratoga

it will go Tedisco. Saratoga is closest to the area that Tedisco actually represents in the Assembly, which isn't part of the 20th District.

[BeyondGeography]

51. 51-49 Murphy w/41% in

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results

[Drunken Irishman]

54. Which one is updated?

I'm seeing two numbers here.

[leftist.]

57. Even if it goes against us, this should quell any of the "referendum" nonsense.

And if anything it puts the spotlight back on Steele.

[aaaaaa5a]

59. 79% Murphy is down by roughly 1,000 votes

[Drunken Irishman]

65. THERE ARE TOO MANY GODDAMN NUMBERS!

You've got one link saying Murphy is up 51-48 with 41% in, the other has him down a few hundred votes and now this one has him up with 79% in? WTF IS GOING ON!?

I need to slap someone.

[Lavender Brown]

70. Could it be the counting of absentee ballots?

[Drunken Irishman]

74. I don't know. It could be some sites are lagging behind.

One person said with over 70% in, Murphy is down, but two sites have smaller percentages in and Murphy losing by a smaller margin.

[snowbear]

81. Nate Silver's site is guessing the thug may win by 1,599 votes..

.
.

I hope he's wrong, but looks like that area is still wing-nuttish afterall..

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Thrill]

167. There are thousands of absentee ballots to count. Not likely to get a winner tonight

[Kdillard]

73. Darn. Still more to be counted by not looking too good unless something

changes. Murphy needs some momentum.

[Drunken Irishman]

80. No, it looks like he's going to lose.

Saratoga still has 40 or so precincts left and he's getting his butt kicked there.

The only chance Murphy has is to run up the score in Columbia, and that doesn't look likely.

[Danger Mouse]

72. Saratoga is almost all in...it went heavy for Tedickhead but...

there are a lot of votes left to count and it is VERY close.

[Thrill]

76. Interesting. Gillibrand won that big. Thats not good

[leftist.]

79. We stayed with Obama margins in every county EXCEPT Saratoga it seems.

Still, not a bad night at all for Democrats (IMO) and the referendum nonsense gets summarily annihilated.

[ccharles000]

91. I think Tedisco was the State Rep. for a big chunk of Saratoga for 2+ decades

[lolamio]

77. Those remaining numbers aren't favoring Murphy. Bummer. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

82. Nope. It's pretty much over.

Oh well.

Let the spinning begin.

[leftist.]

87. I don't see much spinning coming out of this.

Republicans, and by extension Steele, didn't have their best night. And they lose the ability to call it a referendum.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

84. what #'s are you looking at?...try this one

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results

[Drunken Irishman]

90. Those numbers are the same as the AP, which has Murphy losing.

It's 50-50, but he's down by over 1,000 votes. Every precinct Murphy did well in has pretty much voted and Saratoga, where Tedisco is kicking Murphy's ass.

[PBS Poll-435]

99. Perhaps the remaining precincts in Saratoga County are more favorable

Plus Columbia County is doing very well for Murphy and they are 1/3rd counted.

[Marsala]

160. Looks like they were indeed more favorable

Murphy seems to have the lead at the buzzer, though we'll probably have yet another recount.

[PBS Poll-435]

165. Recount is certain at this point

Plus I don't know if the absentee ballots are included in the total.

[Lavender Brown]

83. Yuck. Tedisco partying it up in Saratoga on Capital News 9

[Danger Mouse]

85. Fucking pig. I'm almost mad at Kirsten for leaving us to that sleazebag.

[lolamio]

104. I am mad at Patterson for mucking up the whole Senate appointment. He's left a political mess. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

88. What a filthy scumbag he is...

Rotten as fuck, even grading on the Repug curve.

[Danger Mouse]

102. The repukes love to throw their trash in this district.

[snowbear]

93. Michael Steele will be all over the networks tomorrow..

.
.

This is what Sean Quinn of fivethirtyeight (Nate Silver's site) says:

9:32 PM: Tedisco apparently took a page from Michael Steele's textbook and bused a bunch of minority volunteers to make phone calls today. With a third of the precincts reporting, Tedisco holds a stable 52%-48% lead, with no results from Columbia, Delaware or Washington counties.

[lolamio]

96. Ugh. I've posted this several times in these NY20 threads, but I can't begin to tell you what an..

Opportunistic hack Tedisco is. I dislike everything about him. He's my assemblyman and really is the worst of the worst. What a shame that it looks like he'll be heading to Congress. Thank heavens we have Tonko here in Schenectady County to balance out Tedisco. Tonko is genuinely a good guy.

[Lavender Brown]

118. Yeah, I've met Tedisco many times. Stereotypical smarmy pol

A cloud of nasty cologne follows him everywhere. :puke: Tonko is a very nice guy.

[jenmito]

86. Darn it. On Hardball they were saying the Dem. would probably win according to the polls. n/t

[mgcgulfcoast]

92. every vote counts

shame on anyone that sat home.

[FrenchieCat]

97. That got folks all comfy!

That's the headfake game our news play.

[mgcgulfcoast]

101. overconfidence?

its still close though

[jenmito]

107. Yup. That stinks. n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

110. I bet the other way

I always believe in foundational strength and early advantage. I've posted that for years on DU. It doesn't always work, particularly in high profile primaries, but in general election type outcomes like D vs. R it's the way to look. Recency is absurdly overrated.

Chris Matthews bases everything on the last minute so-called momentum. I allowed a private chuckle tonight when was touting the late polling and his guest was hinting at confidence within the Murphy camp. I've summered in Saratoga for more than 10 years. That's not a shifting populous. Obviously I want the D to win but as always in wagering I have to ignore bias and bet on value.

It took a long time for the market sites to come around that Murphy was in trouble tonight. I got got a fixed price on Tedisco as a small underdog.

[FrenchieCat]

89. That's why they changed the narrative to be a referendum against Obama......

It was already known who would win.

We can thank Gov. Patterson for his brain fart of
pulling someone out of a red district to replace
Hilary Clinton. Whatta Genius!

[leftist.]

95. It's a stretch by any measure to call this win (if it's a win for them) a referendum.

I think if anything we took that away from them.

[leftist.]

109. Oops! Self-delete.

..

[Lavender Brown]

94. I was right... the college kids didn't get out the vote in Saratoga.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13029/voting-hiccups-at-skidmore

:grr:

[Danger Mouse]

98. Flaky dickheads.

[jefferson_dem]

103. See! If we could only vote on Facebook...

The Dem would win for sure!

[Danger Mouse]

105. Fuck them. If these fucking morons can't be bothered to get off their worthless asses...

and perform their civic duty, fuck them.

[Lavender Brown]

135. They've swung the vote in a couple of decisive elections

They're usually such an activist campus - they let us down here.

[Drunken Irishman]

100. Blame Paterson. He knew this would be a hard seat to hang on to.

And he didn't care.

Fucking loser.

[lolamio]

106. Exactly. I am furious with him over this. I read the other day that Pataki has been polling well...

for Senate, too. WTF was Patterson thinking when he appointed Gillibrand?

[Drunken Irishman]

114. It's going to be a huge mess.

Because it's likely Pataki takes the seat and if Cuomo doesn't run for governor, it's very possible New York will have Giuliani as its governor.

[Danger Mouse]

117. Giuliani will never be governor of New York. Never.

[MadBadger]

172. I dont see where it says that at the link.

[Lavender Brown]

190. It says that only a small percentage of eligible voters had showed up by midday.

The rest was just a guess on my part based on what I know about the place.

[Thrill]

229. Maybe they did absentee?

[Lavender Brown]

239. I think most of them aren't from the district.

but they registered to vote here because they can swing elections. It's a liberal, artsy school and they conflict with the surrounding rural voters.

[snowbear]

108. Nate Silver predicts thug will win by 1445 votes.. :-(

.
.

10:04 PM: With 505 of 610 precincts in, there are three counties the AP says haven't fully reported all their precincts: 38 of 58 outstanding Columbia (favors Murphy by 12 points), 24 of 49 outstanding in Delaware county (favors Tedisco by 6 points) and 43 of 188 precincts left in Saratoga (favors Tedisco by 10 points). Updated extrapolation if the county percentages hold: Tedisco would win by 1445 votes.

[Kdillard]

120. Yep I just figured out that Murphy would need about 1500 votes

to pull this thing out and unfortunately that doesn't look like it is going to happen. Disappointing but not surprising.

[jenmito]

111. Tomorrow's headline: "Dem. loss in NY overshadows Obama's European visit" n/t

[mvd]

119. Probably

It's not a referendum on Obama at all, but we know the media likes to take every opportunity to bash him.

[jenmito]

126. They already said this will be a referendum on Obama's policies. n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

112. Murphy down by 98 votes at last update

County Precincts Scott Murphy
(Dem) James Tedisco
(GOP)
Total 588/610 73,421
50% 73,523
50%

[Danger Mouse]

115. Heh, even if they do win, we'll have given em a hell of a fight.

[Drunken Irishman]

121. Except Saratoga is pretty much the only precinct left and that's going heavily for Tedisco.

[Danger Mouse]

128. Saratoga is 100% counted.

[DrToast]

129. I read there are 6,000 absentee ballots...

I don't know if they favor any candidate, but they're out there.

[snowbear]

122. Wow.. it's enough to make you sea sick !!

.
.

[ccharles000]

113. We are down by about 100

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[Drunken Irishman]

130. Saratoga will win this for Tedisco. Mathmatically, unless there is some hidden vote, Murphy is done.

The only precincts open are from Columbia and Saratoga. Saratoga is much larger than Columbia and will have more votes. It's also Tedisco's best county.

[aaaaaa5a]

131. From TPM....

10:12 ... We're hearing that the votes are now fully in in Columbia county, which hasn't yet been reported by the AP. And the numbers show a substantial Murphy pick up. We're being told it's a pick up of around 1400 by Murphy

[Kdillard]

145. Come on Murphy he needs another 100 votes or more.

[Historic NY]

116. Another nail in the accidental Governors coffin...

jackass he couldn't leave picked anotehr person in a district that could be held.

[NYC_SKP]

123. 85% in, 50% to 50%......It's close! Murphy ahead by 102 votes

Total 588/610 pcts. Tedisco: 73,421 Murphy: 73,523

[mvd]

125. Don't give up, yet..

[NYC_SKP]

170. Never...

Never give up! :fistbump:

[aaaaaa5a]

140. What a roller coaster ride. We may not have a winner tonight! nt

[ccharles000]

124. we are down by 30

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[PBS Poll-435]

127. MURPHY DOWN 30 VOTES

591/610 precincts reporting.

[leftist.]

134. This is incredible ... and a lot of fun to sit up and watch!

I'm having a blast!

[PBS Poll-435]

147. Me too!

:toast:

[Awsi Dooger]

133. Hey, we've got a ballgame

Wild update. I may lose my wager after all.

[jefferson_dem]

136. Fuckin A! Murphy's up by 250! W/ 607/610 in!

:woohoo:

[snowbear]

146. Ok.. I need some Dramamine.. Seriously getting sea sick !!

.
.

[Joe the Revelator]

137. MURPHY TAKES THE LEAD....3 precincts left

[Awsi Dooger]

138. New leader

And only a handful of precincts remaining

[PBS Poll-435]

139. Murphy Takes The Lead! +252, 3 precincts left to count!

[Danger Mouse]

144. This is a squeaker!

[Hoosier]

141. pretty freaking close!

With 591 of 610 reporting....Murphy: 50% 74,221 Tedisco 50% 74,251

30 votes...

[Drunken Irishman]

142. Saratoga is the only county out now. I don't know if Murphy can hang on.

Hopefully he has enough votes!

[jefferson_dem]

148. Obviously, it depends on which Saratoga precincts are still out.

Yowza! :scared:

[DrToast]

151. If they are average-sized, it will be tough for Tedisco to catch up

Although it won't be over tonight anyway.

[Drunken Irishman]

152. We'll find out.

Who knows, Murphy made a comeback due to Columbia, but the last few precincts in Saratoga have favored him, since he went from 12 down to 8. That tells me the last update could be in his favor!

[ccharles000]

143. we are up by about 200

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[DrToast]

Tedisco likely won't catch up with those 3 left.

[mvd]

163. Wonderful! What a nice turn of events!

:toast:

[DrToast]

168. Unless it's a big precint that goes heavily for Tedisco.

Which I suppose it could be!

[Joe the Revelator]

149. Close enough for a recount at least....which is a loss for Steele

[mvd]

156. I'm really glad it's at least this close

I know that won't ease the pain of the district's residents if we lose, though. :-(

[leftist.]

You are absolutely right.

We can say this, regaurdless of the outcome Steele looks pretty bad tonight.

[MadBadger]

150. I feel that dreaded "R" word as the back of my throat

Recount

[Joe the Revelator]

153. No worries, thats still a loss for the repubs....they wanted the big splashy win

[aaaaaa5a]

154. Obama has already won tonight. NT

[Drunken Irishman]

155. It's closer now. One precinct left. It comes down to this.

Bottom of the 9th, three outs and the bases are loaded, here comes the 2-3 pitch...

[DrToast]

159. Plus the 6,000 absentee ballots.

We won't know anything tonight.

[Drunken Irishman]

171. Unless they counted them already.

Sometimes they count absentee ballots at the start, but we'll see.

[DrToast]

181. Nope. They are uncounted. n/t

[wellstone dem]

164. 81 vote difference with one left

what a nailbiter.

[PBS Poll-435]

157. 1 precinct left to count. Murphy + 81

[NYC_SKP]

162. You beat me you, you, you.....

bastid! :P

[NYC_SKP]

166. It's Official!!!

one precinct left, our guy ahead by 81.

:toast:

[PBS Poll-435]

169. What can I say?

:shrug:

I love election night. Any election night.




:P

[Joe the Revelator]

161. One pricinct left...murphy by 81

[Cha]

174. I wonder what kind of

precinct that is?:)

[wmbrew0206]

178. Some rough math shows that if the last pricint follows the outs in that county...

the rethug will gain about +90 votes.

Either way this one is going to a recount.

[snowbear]

173. Nate Silver's website says there are approx. 6,000 uncounted absentees...

.
.

10:20 PM: Murphy closes strongly. With only 3 precincts in Saratoga unreported, Scott Murphy now leads Jim Tedisco by 252 votes, or 0.16%. There are roughly 6,000 uncounted absentee ballots.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Drunken Irishman]

177. So it won't matter what the outcome is tonight, neither candidate is going to exceed 6,000 votes.

[aaaaaa5a]

188. Neither candidate is going to lead by more than 100 votes out of about 155,000 votes cast

[Undercurrent]

175. .

609 of 610 precincts reporting 100%

Scott Murphy (D/I/WF) 77,208 50%
Jim Tedisco (R/C) 77,127 50%

Source: The Associated Press
http://www.cbs6albany.com/sections/news/electionmap/


538 reporting: "There are roughly 6,000 uncounted absentee ballot"

[NYC_SKP]

176. The one remaining precinct is in Saratoga County, it favors Tedisco 54% to 46%

Let's hope it's a blue precinct in a red county.....

Send vibes right fucking now!!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

179. Yes, but it was favoring Tedisco by 12 points before Murphy's surge.

Which indicates maybe the final precincts in this county are breaking Murphy's way.

[Undercurrent]

182. sending out those vibes...

[Barack_America]

183. And the small matter of 6,000 absentee ballots, no?

:shrug:

[NYC_SKP]

198. Right, and the question is how have these leaned in the past?

I hope it's different from what I recall is the national trend of retirees and conservatives turning in absentee ballots in greater numbers.

[Barack_America]

220. If the Democrats have organized well, college students should...

...make up a significant percentage of those absentee ballots.

But though I would love to be proven wrong, I suspect that Democrats haven't organized well.

[NYC_SKP]

261. Maybe, just maybe, there's an Obama effect in play.

In which these young voters apply their new voting knowledge and experience from last year's primary and GE to this election.

I hope.

[wmbrew0206]

186. if it follows the other counties it will be @ +90 for Tedisco...

A win by less than 8 votes. I'll wait for the recount.

[Awsi Dooger]

180. Can one precinct withstand an 81 vote margin?

This is more entertainment than I bargained on.

[Drunken Irishman]

185. Well there are 25,701 votes cast in Saratoga.

That's about 137 votes per precinct, if my math is correct.

[DrToast]

191. 25,701 is the number of votes for Murphy

55,796 in 187 Precincts.

That's about 298 per Precinct.

298 * 54% = 161 votes for Tedisco
298 * 46% = 137 votes for Murphy

This is assuming the precinct goes the same way as the average precinct.

[Drunken Irishman]

193. Oh, ok. I just quickly glanced at the number on the right.

So it's definitely doable, then.

[aaaaaa5a]

184. TPM.. It's going to come down to absentee ballots

TPM...
10:24 ... Okay, pretty clear at this point that this is going to come down to the absentee ballots. About their absentee ballot operation, a GOP source tells us, "Ours is good, but I assume theirs is too."

[snowbear]

189. Looks like it..

.
.

10:29 PM: While we wait, the average precinct size in Saratoga is 298 votes.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Drunken Irishman]

194. Can't they count the absentee ballots tonight?

[Nite Owl]

187. Sevaral thousand

absentee ballots to be counted. May take a week.

[PBS Poll-435]

192. By my estimate (not including the absentees)

The last precinct will only have about 300 votes.

Which means Teh Disco will have to win the precinct with at least 77% to regain the lead.



(Again. Before counting the absentees.)



Take that, Nate.

[snowbear]

196. LOL!! ... Hey, when are you coming out with your own nifty polling site?

.
.

Please... do it!!!

You could knock Nate into oblivion!

[mvd]

197. Possible, but not likely

We might have another Franken/Coleman type thing. If behind, I hope Murphy takes this all the way in retaliation!

[AZ Criminal JD]

240. New York has far different election laws than Minn has.

[mvd]

241. Explain, so I know what is ahead

:hi:

[AZ Criminal JD]

262. In Minn the loser can hold the winner hostage by appeals

In NY they cant do that.

[jefferson_dem]

209. I heart your math skills!

"Teh Disco" :rofl:

What a greasy bastard..........:puke:

[jefferson_dem]

232. Sludge has been keeping a running tally all night, in big bold font on his cesspool of webpage.

I wonder how long he'll let the D continue to loom large ON TOP of the R.

D 77,344
R 77,279

I say a half hour...

[Sinistrous]

195. Self Delete.

[NYC_SKP]

200. NOOOOO! Don't Self Delete, You've got so much to live for, it's just one seat!!!

:rofl:

[Lavender Brown]

199. T. just said, "Call me 'Landslide Tedisco'"

and took a shot at Pelosi. :puke:

[Drunken Irishman]

201. Of course the difference there was that LBJ actually won...

He hasn't won shit. In fact, he's behind. What a twit.

[mvd]

203. What is Tedisco talking about??

:shrug:

[Lavender Brown]

214. I think it was supposed to be funny

the supporters in the audience probably thought it was true. :P

[Drunken Irishman]

217. It would be funny if he had won by a slim margin.

But to say it when you're losing makes you look like a fool!

[Danger Mouse]

222. That's because he is one.

[snowbear]

204. How can he presume that? ... Has anyone called the race?

.
.

Geez, what a jerk he must be!

[Danger Mouse]

206. Does Tedisco realize that right now he's losing?

[Thrill]

210. Did he really say that? If true. Sounds like Repuke shady business with the Absentee ballots

[Lavender Brown]

225. Now he's crying talking about his brother.

That was actually pretty touching.

[snowbear]

236. Who's crying?

.
.

Details Lavender.. we need details..

[Lavender Brown]

237. Tedisco -he choked up

talking about his late brother.

[ccharles000]

202. its done for now (we have won ?)

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[NYC_SKP]

By 65 votes, Murphy........now for the other 6000 absentee vote.

More vibes!!!!!

[mvd]

215. I assume he didn't make it up in that precinct

:bounce:

[NYC_SKP]

231. yep, Tadisco closed the gap by 16 in the last precinct.

Not enough!

The spread went from 81 to 65.

[PBS Poll-435]

205. 100% reporting. Murphy up 65

Edited because The Saratogian edited their info!

[Danger Mouse]

207. It's not over yet, but so far, in your FACE, Tedisco!

[Kdillard]

208. Yes now hopefully those absentee ballots will go our way.

[snowbear]

211. No way... REALLY?

.
.

[PBS Poll-435]

212. Conflicting Data. AP has Murphy up 65. Saratogian up 177

:shrug:

[PBS Poll-435]

230. The Saratogian has corrected their tables

Murphy + 65.


:woohoo:

[PM7nj]

213. 177? I'm getting +55.

:?

[NYC_SKP]

221. 65 nt

[Drunken Irishman]

223. I'm getting 65. haha

[PM7nj]

228. That's what I meant :D

[mvd]

218. Woohooo!

Now vibes for the absentees..

[Awsi Dooger]

216. Absentee ballots suck

When I bet on a basketball game they don't add 6000 auxiliary free throws to the total a day later.

Notice how the last precinct takes forever when the lead is in balance. It's like Olympic gymnastics when the final routine decides the gold and they get to maneuver some fancy digits.

+65, I'll take it. Even if I blow the bet. :)

[thevoiceofreason]

219. Murphy by 65!!!!

[snowbear]

224. LOL!! ... We have 177, 65, and 55 ...

.
.

But hey, at least we're up!

[BeyondGeography]

227. It's 65 here

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[mvd]

233. Do absentees still have to come?

[Bleacher Creature]

235. Yes, about 6,000 to come.

[mvd]

238. I'd call it a great night!

:woohoo:

[BzaDem]

226. +65 with 100% in according to AP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS

[Raine1967]

234. 65 from the Albany project...

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6171/official-ny20-results-thread

[PM7nj]

242. The Freepers are about to jump off a cliff.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2219449/posts

Some real comedy over there tonight. My favorite...

The GOP is retarded.

This is an IDIOCRACY.

The GOP won't see the inside of the WH until it acts accordingly and gets CELEBRITIES to carry its banner.

The 19th,24, and 26th amendments to the Constitution, along with Motor Voter and ACORN, have PERMANENTLY stacked the deck in favor of SOCIALISM.

Duane "The Rock" Johnson for President!!!!
44 posted on Tue Mar 31 22:53:25 2009 by Rome2000 (Peace is not an option)

...

That has to be a troll, right? (I hope!?)

[PBS Poll-435]

243. ACORN!!!:-)!!!

:rofl:

[Lavender Brown]

247. Celebrities? But they've got celebrities... Pat Boone and Giuliani made robocalls for Tedisco!

:rofl:

[Lavender Brown]

244. Senator Gillibrand just introduced Murphy as the new Congressman

:)

[Danger Mouse]

245. What about the absentee ballots?

[Lavender Brown]

246. I don't know. Hope they're not counting chickens...

[PBS Poll-435]

248. They may be

We could end up losing this race, but the effect of a RNC/Steele/Rudy!/Anti-Obama win by Teh Disco will not be felt at all.

[Drunken Irishman]

251. The news cycle is lost.

Republicans needed this to be the talking point tomorrow and the rest of the week, which meant a victory decided TODAY. It didn't happen, so if there are other ballots out there and they have a recount, once the results are released, everyone will have moved on and the news will barely mention it.

[PBS Poll-435]

253. 100% correct. The "Steele retakes seat!!!" media meme isn't going to happen

No matter the results after the absentees are counted.

[Adelante]

252. We won't know until 4/13

According to this, anyway.

Race too close to call
March 31, 2009 at 10:20 pm by Irene Jay Liu

Look here for the full results, but the race is too close to call.

The race in the 20th Congressional district between Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy is too close to call.

With 100 percent precincts reporting, Murphy leads Tedisco by only 59 votes, 77,344 to 77,285.

With nearly 6,000 absentee ballots that will essentially decide the race as of Monday, the election will not be decided at least until April 13.

As of Monday, 5,907 absentee ballots were received by the state Board of Elections out of around 10,000 mailed, according to spokesman Bob Brehm. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by March 30 and received within seven days for regular absentee ballots or 13 days for military and overseas ballots.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13064/in-short

[PBS Poll-435]

250. Everyone who posted on this thread tonight gets a gold star

It wasn't a blowout, but I like our odds.



:dem:

[Drunken Irishman]

254. Even me?

You know, I freaked out a bit.

[Adelante]

255. You did get a little morose

But you're Irish :shrug:

:D

[PBS Poll-435]

256. Especially you!

:pals:

[Drunken Irishman]

257. Aww.

Tonight reminded me many of the nights we spent dissecting primary results! It was actually kinda fun.

[PBS Poll-435]

258. LOL

They were the best of times, they were the worst of times.


:D

[styersc]

259. Congrats to all the volunteers, voters and contributors.

Winning a squeaker in a GOP District took a lot of hands who rocked the vote and kept this seat. Every victory that we refuse them is twice the victory.

[jefferson_dem]

260. Reminded me of three other races when the Dem came from behind at the very end to win.

Senate Races: Tester, McCaskill, and Webb...

Electoral politics is such an amazing ... "sport".