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Specter has ‘strong incentive’ to leave the Republican Party.

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Cash_thatswhatiwant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 05:49 PM
Original message
Specter has ‘strong incentive’ to leave the Republican Party.
With former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who currently heads the right-wing Club for Growth, announcing that he will challenge Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in a primary battle for his Senate seat in 2010, The Hill is reporting that Specter now has a “strong incentive to abandon his party this year.” Specter barely beat Toomey in 2004 and 2010 looks to be a much tougher fight:

Pennsylvania political experts say that Specter would likely face a more difficult challenge in 2010 because the Republican primary electorate in Pennsylvania has become more conservative.

“I think he has a lot of problems,” said Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. “I think this is the test of lifetime.”

Madonna estimated that between 150,000 to 200,000 centrist Republicans switched registration to the Democratic Party in the 2008 election cycle, leaving the remaining GOP electorate more conservative.

If Specter were to lose to Toomey in the primary, he would not be able to run as an independent under Pennsylvania election law.

http://thinkprogress.org/2009/03/07/specter-switch-part...
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. Come on aboard, Arlen
its a big tent and though we rarely agree I've actually caught you making sense on occasion.
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Kingofalldems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I'll take Specter over Lieberman any day
Can we make a trade with the repubs?
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camera obscura Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. Not sure how to feel about this. it would be a huge blow to the Republicans but it may hurt us too
Unless Specter would agree to vote the party line, it would be better for us to run a reliable Democrat.
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. If I had the ear of the Dem Congressional leaders, I'd advise them
to tell Arlen that if he jumps now rather than waiting, and if he continues to back Obama's Master Plan, we'll support & finance his 2010 run. If he waits, we'll run a primary opponent against him. We need all the Dems we can get RIGHT NOW.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 05:58 PM
Response to Original message
4. He still personifies the Thomas-Hill hearings to me. He'll lose in the general because of age. nt
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. There's a way for him to win.
He can win as a Dem, with the full backing of the party, against a conservative R.

See my suggestion of how to do this above.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I did. I think that age and health issues will work against him no matter which party he runs for.
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creeksneakers2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
8. It would be a good time for Arlen to retire
Perhaps he will. A switch from Arlen to D would make 60 votes (assuming Franken). No matter which Arlen chooses, Ds will pick up Arlen's seat because Toomey would definitely lose the general, unless the public mood changes drastically against Democrats.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. No thanks, as a Pennsylvanian
Letting Specter be primaried out and forced into retirement and allowing a younger moderate democrat to be Toomey's opponent gives us a moderate democrat in our caucus who might go a couple terms not a moderate republican who might die during his term.

We have no clue how the Govenor's race is going to play out. That office seems to switch party every 8 years regardless of performance or lack of performance of the incumbent. Specter becomes a democrat wins re-election and we have a puke govenor means I get a puke sensator.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. What Dems are considering running for the Senate seat?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. Rumors are Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz
I'm sure once Toomey announces there will be 2 more that want to throw their hat in the ring.

I wanted Sestak to run but he's been saying he's not considering it.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. I've never heard of Schwartz. I like Murphy.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
10. I could see Specter running as an I, spliting the Dem vote and giving the seat to Toomey.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Yep worse case scenario
If he decides to run as an I he would peel away moderate democrats, not moderate republicans (there are none left)
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
11. I'd rather he just retire. (nt)
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
12. An "I" won't cut it
HE either goes all the way to D or he loses.

Plain and simple, he cannot win as a Republan and he cannot win as an Independent. His only choice is to becoem a full fledged Democrat or retire.
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Arkana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
14. Specter's no Democrat.
But he's an old-school Republican, one who is capable of providing respectful opposition to Democrats without turning into a frothing-at-the-mouth lunatic.

I don't think he'd fit in the Democratic Party--I think way too many of his views are out of line, but I wouldn't begrudge him running as an Independent who caucuses with us.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. I agree
Specter votes with his party over 60% of the time - PA Democrats would want a real Democrat.
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #14
27. Specter was once a democrat, but switched parties to avoid a primary on the democratic side
He switched to run unopposed for district attorney in Philadelphia I believe, and won the general election.

In my opinion Specter's sort of more of a moderate opportunist politician, kind of like Bloomberg.
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Skidmore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
15. So Specter has voted with Dems a handful of times, that does not
make him in line with the Democratic Party agenda or policies. The last thing we need is another Lieberman type.
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Arkana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. He'd be worse.
Lieberman's only an ass on foreign policy--on domestic issues he's more liberal than a lot of Dems.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:40 PM
Response to Original message
17. Conservatives can't win statewide in Pennsylvania anymore
This is a you-pick-em. Even a no-name Dem will trounce Toomey.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
19. PA has to have a better Dem than Specter
No thank you.
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zbdent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
21. aaaaaaannnnd ... how many times has Spectre voiced opposition to
the party line, only to wind up voting WITH THE PARTY ???

Plenty ...
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 07:51 PM
Response to Original message
23. He may be better than Liebermann, but he still has a right wing heart ............
and should not be allowed on the Democratic primary ticket. Parties do have the authority to allow or disallow people for running for their nomination. Force him to run as an independent.
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AndrewP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
24. Not trying to off good old Arlen, but has had 2 cancer battles this term.
May have other issues to deal with besides electibility in getting to serve another term.
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-07-09 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
26. GOP=Circular Firing Squad
:crazy:
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
28. He might be able to circumvent that law if he changed his name after the primary.
Well... just a thought.
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
29. He needs to retire or run as a independent.
I don't see him a fully Dem but he is a moderate old style Repup of which there is like 3 left, him and the women from Maine. He has been willing to work with Obama and has been very respectful of Obama maybe even more so then more conservative Dems. I have not always agreed with him or liked him at times but he is better then even Loserman imo. If he does not retire then he should run as an independent who caucuses with Dems. His views do not fit in with the Repub party as we know it right now, he is like a Lincoln Chafee, a man without a party.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
30. If Toomey would be the favorite in the GOP primary, wouldn't a Democrat
be the favorite in a Dem primary, should Specter switch sides?

My hope would be to field a strong Democratic candidate to defeat Toomey in a general and against whom Specter would not stand a chance in any Dem primary.


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tanyev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
31. He woke up with an elephant head in his bed?
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
32. No thanks. Retirement would be a better option for you.
buh-bye...
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Vanje Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-08-09 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
33. I wish for Specter
A very pleasant retirement.

This is an especially good time to have DEMOCRATS, serving as DEmocrats in the House and Senate.

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