My worthless election prediction

[Goldom]

Here’s what I see happening:
• Kerry will overwhelmingly win the election in November. He will win swing states in CO, FL, NM, NV, NH, WI, MI. He will likely lose OH.
• PA and other states lately called into question he will win easily.
• Florida will be taken by Jeb, and given to Bush regardless. Diebold machines involved there and in Ohio will only help this, but cannot have any affect in obvious states like CA, despite their use there.
• Polling across the nation will set up votes to be stolen – the closer the projections are, the easier it is to get away with. This is the reason for right-wing groups releasing obviously flawed polls, such as the latest giving Bush a chance in NY.
• Regardless, Kerry will win with at least 278-260 EVs, even giving up Florida.
• In an ideal scenario, he has a chance at up to 353 EVs.
• As far as congress, Republicans have a tight lock on the House, though the Senate could easily be split 50-50, and with 1 liberal Independent, this would turn it’s power.
• Several Supreme Court justices will retire, and be replaced by fair choices, though likely the more staunchly conservative will hold on, hoping to survive until 2008.

• Once elected, and assuming he is successful in throwing Bush out of office, he will have four years of being infinitely better than Bush.
• In this time, he will be faced with correcting all the problems that Bush has created during his presidency, and Kerry will be blamed for things not being better.
• In 2008, the country will be on its way to undoing the damage of the Bush presidency. However, Kerry will lose by a large margin.
• The large amounts of Republicans and traditional conservatives coming out against Bush will field a more moderate candidate in 2008, taking this support away from Kerry.
• With the threat of Bush removed, 3rd party voters will abandon “ABB”, and go back to voting for their numerous other parties.
• Nader will probably run a third time, with still-decreasing results. Undoubtedly, there will be “No difference between Kerry and (insert R-2008 candidate’s name here)”
• Both Green and Libertarian parties will see a huge jump compared to this year.

• 2012 will see the first major chance for a 3rd party since the two party system was formed. An incumbent moderate Republican will likely be put against a Democrat who, by then, has figured out that it’s okay to be liberal. Regardless, several third parties will have large turnouts, and at least one is likely to receive enough votes to receive federal funding, greatly increasing their chances in 2016.

Of course, that’s if we aren’t all blown up first.

[donco6]

1. Would love to see him take Colorado

But I'm not that hopeful. We're stupider here than we look.

[Goldom]

2. I wouldn't trust the latest polls

with him ahead, except that Clinton won CO the first time too - it's not as hopeless as it looked last time. (I'm CO native myself)

[the Kelly Gang]

3. doesn't sound 'worthless' to me..I feel in my bones you could be right

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Major intervening problems

1. Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf is deposed and replaced by a militant Islamist regime, which then has access to 25-100 atomic (fission) bombs. Significant potential exists for a nuclear exchange with India if the Indian right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party is in power.

2. Militant Islamist coup d'êtat turning the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into the Islamic Republic of Arabia. Such a coup would almost certainly stop all oil trade for the duration of the conflict; probably would not resume trade with USA, Europe, etc.

3. Climate change causes an increase in hurricanes, blizzards, floods, and stops the Asian monsoon, jeopardizing 2-3 billion people within a period of 5 years.

4. Climate change causes a breakdown in Atlantic thermohaline current, plunging Europe into a permanent winter, necessitating resettling millions of people (with a similar scenario delayed by 1-2 years that effects Canada/Northern USA).

5. Oil crisis from non-political events; the price of oil increases sharply, initially causing inflation, massive unemployment, then cascading into a series of infrastructure failures.

6. Collapse of Neo-Conservatism as a major political philosophy in American political life.

7. The Anunaki from Nibiru, the 12th Planet, return to Earth to assert their ownership over (the race they created from gene-spliced monkeys,) Homo sapiens.

There are plenty, though, that I forgot.

--bkl